News linked to both this project and an event.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 being restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 97%, up 71% in 24 hours.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 just days after its release on June 9.The latest update indicates that Anthropic has received notification that the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Access rights will begin to be restored.Odaily Seer Channel continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. "Clarity Act," although having passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money-laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts note that with approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before Congress adjourns in August, it must complete the reconciliation of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually clarify, intensified competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)
Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire has seemingly responded to the launch of Open USD. He stated that stablecoins are reshaping the infrastructure for storing and transferring value on the internet, becoming one of the largest potential market opportunities globally, and emphasized his long-term strong bullish outlook on this sector.Circle will continue to expand the USDC ecosystem by integrating with more blockchain networks, enhancing cross-chain interoperability, and strengthening connections with the traditional financial system, including banks, payment companies, and capital market institutions. The goal is to further standardize stablecoin infrastructure. At the same time, the company welcomes continuous innovation and competition within the industry and will focus on building more robust stablecoin infrastructure while improving partners' ecological participation and economic incentive mechanisms. This is aimed at driving the development of a "stablecoin-native Internet financial system."Previously, it was reported that, potentially influenced by competitive news regarding Open USD, CRCL experienced a sharp intraday decline of nearly 9%.
Economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff stated in his latest commentary that the market widely believes it is "almost impossible" for Bitcoin to drop to $20,000, but this judgment lacks a solid basis.Schiff pointed out that Bitcoin fell below the $20,000 level approximately 3.5 years ago, a period not so distant that a return to this price range can be ruled out. Significant retracements of assets within relatively short cycles are not uncommon in financial markets. He further noted that due to Bitcoin's higher volatility compared to most stocks, a pullback of similar magnitude under changes in macro or liquidity conditions is "entirely reasonable," and the market should not underestimate the downside risk.
Nasdaq has announced the selection of the Pyth Network as its market data distribution channel, bringing its core product, Nasdaq TotalView, which includes depth market data and order imbalance information, onto the blockchain and institutional-grade data networks.According to the announcement, Nasdaq will join the Pyth Data Marketplace as a data publisher. This integration will enable its market data to be distributed through a single interface to on-chain protocols, institutional systems, and various software-driven financial applications. This marks the first time Pyth has carried native market data distribution from a major exchange.Nasdaq TotalView is its standard depth-of-market data product, covering the complete order book. It displays the order depth at each price level and market participant behavior, while also providing order imbalance data during the opening and closing auction periods.
The latest report released by Wintermute shows that cooling AI trading has triggered market sector rotation, with the Nasdaq Index falling for the fifth consecutive trading day, down 4.5% in a single day, and the semiconductor sector under significant pressure; Bitcoin fell 5.9%, dropping below $60,000 to around $59,300, while Ethereum fell 7.9%. The U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose year-on-year to 4.1%, reinforcing expectations of higher rates for longer, and a stronger U.S. dollar also exerted pressure on crypto assets.
关键驱动是 2028 年 AI 数据中心新增装机 81 GW 及800V 高压直流架构替代传统交流。新架构用 SiC 固态变压器、GaN DC-DC 转换器替代机电设备，半导体单瓦含量从 175 美元升至 260 美元。
According to the weekly market report released by BIT Official, heavy selling in semiconductor and AI stocks on June 23-24 triggered defensive adjustments by institutional capital. BTC fell below $60K on June 24, hitting a low of ~$59,000 (intraday decline of approximately 5%). Approximately $994 million in liquidations occurred during the same period (of which approximately $780 million were long positions). Approximately $1.2 billion in nominal Put positions at the $60K level forced market makers to short, exacerbating the downward trend. As of the weekend, BTC was quoted at ~$59,992, down 6.9% for the week; ETH was quoted at ~$1,578, down 9.3% for the week. In terms of volatility, DVOL only rose slightly (BTC 44.1→45.7, ETH 57.3→59.5), front-end skew tended to stabilize, and convexity returned to normal. The institutional defensive hedging ratio decreased from 29.6% to 19.7%, shifting towards two-way balance, overall showing characteristics of an "orderly decline" rather than panic selling. In terms of ETFs, for the week ending June 26, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.79 billion, marking the second-highest weekly outflow record in history, and have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks; IBIT net assets decreased to approximately $44.4 billion, with average holders having an unrealized loss of approximately 40%. Strategy purchased only 520 BTC this week (approximately $34.9 million), significantly slowing down compared to the previous two weeks. MSTR stock price has fallen below its BTC book value, and the flywheel effect has been affected
According to an announcement by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau (FSTB) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) jointly announced on June 29 that they have completed the first-phase review on promoting the further application of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) in Hong Kong's fixed income market. The review results confirmed that Hong Kong's existing legal and regulatory environment is sufficiently flexible to support the issuance of tokenized bonds. The Companies Registry released frequently asked questions on the same day, clarifying that registers of debenture holders maintained using DLT comply with the relevant provisions of the Companies Ordinance. The next phase of the review will commence in the second half of this year, focusing on legal optimization issues such as allowing electronic signatures to execute tokenized bond issuance documents, as well as the "possession" and "transfer" of tokenized fixed income products, to promote the wider application of DLT in the fixed income market and the digital asset sector.
According to The Block, the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) officially released the final draft of the comprehensive crypto regulatory framework on Tuesday, covering prudential capital requirements, market abuse control, and stablecoin standards. The mandatory authorization regime will officially take effect on October 25, 2027. The framework applies to crypto trading platforms, custodians, stablecoin issuers, lending and staking service providers, as well as some DeFi entities with identifiable controlling entities. Market abuse rules cover insider trading and market manipulation. Stablecoin issuers must meet requirements for reserve backing, safeguarding of funds, and redemption disclosures, with the capital ratio reduced from 2% to 1%. The FCA will open the authorization application window from September 30, 2026 to February 28, 2027, and will provide pre-application support meetings starting from July this year. Existing anti-money laundering registration status will not be automatically converted, and relevant institutions must reapply for authorization. FCA Executive Director David Geale stated that the framework aims to provide regulatory certainty for the industry while preserving room for innovation.
the core US crypto regulatory bill, the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (Clarity Act), has entered a critical two-week negotiation cycle for legislation. The Senate will be in recess until July 13. During the recess, bipartisan staff, the White House, and representatives from the crypto industry will continue to negotiate outstanding differences in the bill, focusing on resolving disputes over topics such as the integration of the two bill versions from the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, ethics clauses, and anti-money laundering rules.If all parties successfully reach a unified compromise version, the bill could be submitted for a full Senate vote as early as late July to early August. The market generally believes that the period before the August congressional recess is the only window for the bill to be passed this year. If the vote is not completed during this phase, the probability of the bill being enacted into law within 2026 will significantly decrease. (Crypto in America)
on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode has released its latest weekly market summary, noting that Bitcoin has briefly stabilized around the $60,000 level. However, the market is characterized by strong defensive traits and a lack of bullish confidence.The spot market is range-bound, with trading activity slightly increasing. Yet, capital continues to flow out on a net basis, and market liquidity is primarily driven by distribution, with no large-scale accumulation observed. The derivatives market is persistently deleveraging, with traders prioritizing downside hedging protection and showing low willingness for directional long positions. Funding rates remain low, indicating a generally weak risk appetite. Institutional pressure is significant, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs are collectively in a state of unrealized losses, with continued net capital outflows and low willingness among institutions to increase positions.Glassnode states that the current market is undergoing a period of structural adjustment and capital contraction. The $60,000 level provides only temporary support, and there are no signs of recovery in spot orders, derivatives positions, or institutional capital. For a sustained upward trend to emerge, a significant restoration of confidence among buyers is required.
Bitget launches the long-term investor education program "TradFi Knowledge 100 Questions," breaking down the traditional finance knowledge system into 100 core questions, covering six major modules: Financial Basics, Asset Encyclopedia, Market Mechanisms, Macroeconomics, Risk Management, and the Evolution of Multi-Asset Trading. The course features structured content and weekly updated educational materials, focusing on analyzing the driving logic behind stocks, commodities, interest rates, and capital flows, helping traders build an investment framework across asset classes.
According to the latest macro-trend report released by QCP Group, market focus is shifting from the “signing-related optimism” surrounding multiple macro events toward post-signing execution risks. The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been formally signed; Brent crude oil prices have retreated below USD 80 per barrel, easing tail risks. However, traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains at just 14 transits—well below normal levels—and a 60-day technical negotiation window has now opened. Market pricing is pivoting toward actual tanker flow volumes and progress on compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire. The Federal Reserve unanimously held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but signaled its intention to keep rates higher for longer. The median dot-plot projection for 2026 was raised to 3.8% (up from 3.4%), with the range widened to 3.4%–4.4%; forward guidance was simultaneously scrapped. Core PCE inflation forecasts stand at 3.30%, and headline PCE at 3.82%—both above target—confirming that inflation—not growth—remains the primary constraint. Following its IPO, SpaceX’s stock price has declined approximately 27% from its peak of USD 211 to USD 155, yet it remains 14.5% above its IPO price of USD 135. Market narrative has shifted from IPO momentum to AI financing logic: its USD 20 billion note issuance is earmarked to refinance an xAI bridge loan, while the ~USD 60 billion Anysphere/Cursor transaction converts equity into acquisition currency. SpaceX is now being integrated into the AI capital formation cycle. In the crypto market, S
According to the National Daily, the Bank of Korea (central bank) warned in its “First-Half 2026 Financial Stability Report” that shocks originating in the cryptocurrency market could spill over into traditional stock and foreign exchange markets, as correlations between cryptocurrency markets and traditional markets continue to strengthen. The central bank’s analysis indicates that the likelihood of risk transmission from cryptocurrency markets to the broader financial system is rising, driven by a more diversified investor base and evolving market structures.
Gate has completed the upgrade of its prediction market World Cup section, further enhancing the prediction market experience within the tournament context. After upgrading the Gate App to version v8.25.0 or higher, users can enter the World Cup section with one click via a newly added entry on the homepage, quickly viewing match schedules, standings, popular prediction markets, and more, thereby improving the efficiency of tracking and participating in the tournament. This upgrade adds new sections such as historical champions, best players, and news, providing users with references on team historical records, player performance data, and World Cup hot topics. Simultaneously, a team subscription feature has been launched, allowing users to follow specific national teams or subscribe to all World Cup events with one click, to promptly obtain related match and prediction opportunities. The section also adds a page sharing function, making it convenient for users to share match details, leaderboards, and prediction market content.Furthermore, Gate has launched a World Cup-themed leaderboard to centrally showcase traders with outstanding prediction performance related to the World Cup. This is combined with a "Smart Money" feature to help users track the activities of high-win-rate traders. The platform has recently introduced a prediction market trial voucher mechanism, allowing users to experience prediction market trading at zero cost while retaining profit opportunities, further lowering the barrier to participation. Surrounding the World Cup events, Gate has also launched a series of activities such as "Green Pitch Prophet, World Cup Prediction Carnival" and "Gate Prediction Market × World Cup Daily Highlight Matches," releasing a prize pool of over 550,000 USDT. As the first centralized exchange to integrate with Polymarket, Gate continues to promote the deep integration of prediction markets and sports events, further enriching the application scenarios of prediction markets.
Citrini Research, the institution behind the "AI Doomsday Report," stated that bond issuance by hyperscalers in 2027 to 2028 could be more than double current market expectations, primarily to support the construction of AI data centers.Citrini Research pointed out that AI-related debt issuance is expected to approach $570 billion in 2026, while hyperscalers' capital expenditures have already exceeded $600 billion. Amid the continued push for AI infrastructure development, these companies are gradually shifting from relying on cash reserves to raising more funds through the bond market.
Odaily, "White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X, reviewing his past experiences where his investment views faced skepticism. He stated that many original investment ideas initially face strong opposition, but ultimately the market becomes the standard for judging right and wrong. He has faced significant criticism for being bullish on several companies, for example:$AXTI: Early on, it was questioned as a "scam company," and related discussions even led to a ban from Reddit's WSB forum. However, it later received coverage from Reuters, and the performance of the Indium Phosphide (InP) substrate industry company, along with institutional investor validation, confirmed its logic.$RPI: Initially labeled a "meme stock" by the market, analysts believed it lacked fundamentals. However, earnings reports showed the company's future revenue growth expectation reached 58%, and it was subsequently re-evaluated as a high-growth AI hardware company.$SIVE: Once considered a "meme stock" by numerous investors, it later gained institutional buying support, including attention from Fidelity Research, JPMorgan Chase, and others, and announced partnerships with companies like Jabil and GlobalFoundries.Serenity stated, "The market will ultimately decide what is right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X (formerly Twitter)." He added that as each investment thesis gets validated one by one, the eventual market performance overshadows the early noise. He also listed several other cases that were initially doubted but later gained market recognition, including:$AAOI: Near $30, management was questioned as "untrustworthy";$LITE: At $300, the photonics industry was considered to be in a bubble;$RKLB: At $20, it was dismissed as just a low-revenue launch company;$HOOD: At $20, it faced negative sentiment due to the GameStop trading restriction incident;$IQE: Considered just a small UK company lacking partnerships in the photonics field;$SOI: Analysts at a European bank considered its valuation too high;$NBIS: Questioned for having no competitive moat;$INTC: The market thought it couldn't compete with TSMC;$MRVL: The market feared its ASIC market share would be taken by Broadcom;$AEHR: The market misinterpreted its earnings report, thinking the company lacked revenue;$EWY: The market believed the South Korean semiconductor cycle was in a bubble.
According to Forbes, as the 2026 U.S. primaries advance, political donations from the crypto industry have surged significantly. Protect Progress—a Democratic super PAC backed by the Fairshake network—is continuously channeling funds into candidates across several key districts, sparking controversy over “political narrative packaging.” Disclosures show that in the Maryland House of Delegates race alone, Protect Progress has contributed over $4.9 million to candidate Adrian Boafo; similar funding has also flowed to multiple Democratic candidates in Texas and Georgia. Meanwhile, Congress is advancing the Digital Asset Market Structure Act (the CLARITY Act), and the progress of this legislation further elevates the importance of primary election outcomes. Analysts contend that the crypto industry’s influence within the U.S. political system continues to expand, with several senators and candidates publicly endorsing regulatory frameworks for the crypto industry.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Will Anthropic's valuation reach $1.1 trillion before June 30" has risen to 67%, up 30% in 24 hours.This event will be settled based on Anthropic's private market valuation data released by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). If Anthropic's NPM Price reaches or exceeds the specified amount between the market creation and June 30, 2026, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No".Anthropic's latest funding round was completed on May 28, achieving a post-money valuation of $965 billion after its $65 billion Series H round, just one step away from common short-term thresholds like $1 trillion. With this prediction market set to settle on June 30, traders are monitoring secondary market liquidity and whether any new primary financing or tender offer activity could push its implied valuation higher within the remaining window. Recent estimates show Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate is approaching $47 billion, continuing to support investor demand. However, no new funding announcements have emerged since late May, and IPO preparations remain longer-term.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.