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Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
According to SoSo Value data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of nearly $86 million last Friday, equivalent to approximately 1,350 BTC, with BlackRock's IBIT alone seeing net inflows of nearly $58 million. Standard Chartered's Head of Global Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, suggested that the recent ETF sell-off may be partly driven by some holders liquidating positions to free up cash for participation in SpaceX's IPO. Since October last year, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net outflows of $7.6 billion, including $3 billion in the first six months of 2026. Strategy remains the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with over 800,000 BTC in its treasury. Michael Saylor resumed Bitcoin purchases in early June, following sales by Strategy at the end of May.
Bybit Spot has officially listed xStocks tokenized stock SPCXX on June 13 (UTC+8). The platform simultaneously launched a 200,000 USDT Token Splash trading competition, where users can participate through deposits, trading, and other activities to win substantial rewards.
According to on-chain investigator ZachXBT, on June 11, the TRON chain address TA6YHq...zCoQ received 120.2 million USDT and subsequently initiated multiple rapid transfers: over $12 million was sent to KuCoin’s deposit address; approximately $8 million was transferred to several instant-exchange platforms; and more than $8 million was bridged to the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks via the Near Intents cross-chain bridge. Additionally, this address placed a large number of Monero (XMR) buy orders, causing XMR’s price to spike briefly from $330 to $420. Minutes ago, Tether blacklisted and froze 72 million USDT in the address TBzrPE...Ak9W, which is directly linked to TA6YHq.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that on-chain data shows Bitcoin (BTC) is flowing into exchanges in large quantities, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The simultaneous deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a major reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May highs.Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned notably positive, currently standing at around +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow of approximately -85,000 to -115,000 BTC seen in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to around +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.At the same time, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains consistently negative, currently at approximately -$105 million. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +$40 million to +$90 million, representing relatively strong buy-side liquidity in the market. However, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to around -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."Axel Adler's analysis suggests that the current market is experiencing a simultaneous combination of "increased BTC supply" and "declining stablecoin demand": on one hand, selling pressure is rising, and on the other, new buying power is insufficient. This has led to Bitcoin's pullback from its May highs and entry into a phase of declining risk appetite.For a trend reversal to materialize, the market needs to see simultaneous improvement in two indicators: BTC shifting back to net exchange outflows, signifying renewed accumulation by investors; and stablecoins re-entering exchanges, signaling the return of buying funds. Until these two indicators return to positive territory, any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical correction.
Bitget PoolX has launched two projects—Unitas (UNITAS) and United Stables (U)—with a total airdrop of 600,000 tokens. Details are as follows: UNITAS PoolX: Users can stake ETH to unlock 450,000 UNITAS tokens, with a maximum individual staking limit of 1,500 ETH. The staking period runs from June 11 at 20:00 to June 18 at 20:00 (UTC+8). Users whose net ETH deposits during the participation period are positive will receive a 5% ETH savings interest boost coupon; users participating in PoolX for the first time and meeting the net deposit requirement will receive a 15% ETH interest boost coupon. U PoolX: Users can stake BTC to unlock 150,000 U tokens, with a maximum individual staking limit of 50 BTC. The staking period runs from June 11 at 20:00 to June 17 at 20:00 (UTC+8). Users whose net BTC deposits during the participation period are positive will receive a 2% BTC savings interest boost coupon; users participating in PoolX for the first time and meeting the net deposit requirement will receive a 10% BTC interest boost coupon.
According to monitoring by Ai Yi, trader "Set 10 Big Goals" closed another 1,365.317 BTC long position 7 hours ago. To date, they have closed a total of 2,782.977 BTC in long positions, valued at approximately $205 million, with only 52.352 BTC remaining in open positions.Data shows that this BTC trade has generated a cumulative profit of about $9.895 million. Furthermore, as previously disclosed, on June 4th, one of their BTC long positions incurred a loss of $6.685 million, with the actual initial position size at that time being 3,072.127 BTC.
Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that all four directional predictions for this week were fulfilled: BTC hit a low of $59,130—surpassing the prior target range of $65,000–$67,000. Opening last week at $73,760 and plunging to $59,130, BTC recorded its largest single-week decline since the FTX collapse (roughly −20%). It has since rebounded to $63,000. Three bearish catalysts recently converged: stronger-than-expected NFP data reigniting rate-hike expectations; SpaceX’s IPO siphoning liquidity; and Strategy selling BTC for the first time in four years. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record net outflow of $1.7 billion for the week. ETH’s daily RSI plunged to a historic low of 12.78, while BTC’s daily RSI dropped to 15.45—raising the probability of a technical rebound, though trend reversal remains unconfirmed. DVOL surged from its historical low of 35 to 55 before retreating to 48; put options have already been profitably closed. Currently, chasing long positions is discouraged. BTC faces significant resistance between $63,000 and $65,000. Entry should await either the June 10 CPI release or DVOL falling back to 40—or until BTC convincingly closes above $65,000.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, the former top address (0xe5f...ceaf) of sato fully liquidated on June 1, with a cumulative loss of $368,000 from two positions. Specifically, on May 14, the address sold 374,000 sato at $0.8393, incurring a loss of $215,000 (a 40% loss); on June 1, after actively burning 44,500 tokens, it sold the remaining 444,000 tokens, incurring a loss of $153,000 (a 33% loss).
Despite Bitcoin bouncing after falling below $60,000, several market analysts believe this is more likely a technical correction following an oversold condition rather than the start of a new bull market.Analysts at HEX Trust stated that the market has entered an oversold territory. If US inflation data cools and the outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs slows down, Bitcoin could see further upside. However, a true trend reversal depends on the market’s ability to firmly reclaim the $79,000 to $80,000 range. Until then, any upward movement should be viewed as a corrective rally within a bear market.Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Analyst at FxPro, is relatively more optimistic. He believes that if Bitcoin can rebound to around $68,000, it could be considered a valid recovery from the downtrend observed between May 11 and June 5.Data shows that the net cumulative outflow from the 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks has exceeded $5 billion. On Monday alone, another $91 million flowed out. Analysts point out that ETF fund flows remain one of the key factors determining Bitcoin’s future trajectory.Additionally, the market is closely watching US inflation data scheduled for release on Wednesday. If the inflation figure comes in lower than expected, it could help ease market concerns about further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby providing support for risk assets like Bitcoin. The market currently expects the US inflation rate for May to remain above 4%, significantly higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. (CoinDesk)
market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, drawing market attention, the scale of this transaction is negligible. The real reason for the market's weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to a near two-year high, and the service price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that pressures risk assets.Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week and the S&P 500 recording its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.In the crypto market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with total outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the selling.However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report stated that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate the pressure on risk assets.
Bitget has launched a new edition of CandyBomb with a total prize pool of 31,500 WLD. This event is exclusively for new futures contract users. By completing specified net deposit and futures trading tasks, individual users can earn up to 315 WLD.Detailed rules have been published on the official Bitget platform. Eligible users must complete registration before participating in the event. The event ends on June 19, 2024 at 18:00 (UTC+8).
Humanity released an incident update stating that its H token was subject to a coordinated attack on Ethereum and BSC on the evening of June 8, resulting in approximately $36 million worth of tokens stolen and dumped across both chains. The project disclosed that the attack originated from a compromised employee laptop, which led to the leakage of multiple owner keys for the Gnosis Safe controlling the Hyperlane bridge ProxyAdmin. On Ethereum, the attacker seized ownership of the ProxyAdmin and upgraded the contract to a malicious implementation, transferring approximately 141.2 million H tokens in a single transaction. On BSC, after similarly gaining control of the ProxyAdmin, the attacker deployed a malicious implementation with infinite minting capabilities, minting 200 million H tokens in two transactions and continuously dumping them. Humanity has suspended deposits and withdrawals on the affected cross-chain bridge and is cooperating with exchanges and law enforcement to investigate the incident and seek partial recovery of the stolen funds.
According to an independent analyst report by Markus Thielen on June 9, just days remain before SpaceX’s IPO, and market expectations continue to intensify. There is currently little indication that SpaceX will raise its expected offering price of $135, suggesting the targeted fundraising amount of $7.5 billion has already been substantially subscribed. Meanwhile, pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts tied to SpaceX are trading at $157 on Hyperliquid and $169 on Binance—both significantly above the expected offering price—with implied valuations on both platforms approaching $2 trillion. Although prices have retreated from earlier highs near $200, prediction markets still assign a 68% probability that SpaceX’s valuation will exceed $2 trillion by year-end, reflecting traders’ broad expectation of a strong IPO performance.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.
Odaily News, June 9th — BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it could trigger a collapse of the AI stock bubble and drag the entire crypto market down.Hayes said that if traffic restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, spot prices for hydrocarbons and other key commodities could rise in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the US midterm elections, Trump might pivot to a tough stance targeting data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation. Hayes believes the market could anticipate Trump limiting AI capital expenditure and taxing AI companies, thereby triggering the burst of the AI stock bubble.Hayes also noted that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been approximately $1.5 trillion, and US M2 has increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He believes the three factors that could pop the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb three major AI-related IPOs — namely SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI — and Trump's shift to opposing AI. In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that Maelstrom's stock portfolio holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers; he has sold AI-related stocks and offloaded non-core crypto assets, having dumped HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, as well as selling ZEC due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH and will execute tactical short trades via derivatives.
Analyst Aylo stated that Bitcoin’s current price rebound is not driven by the recent buying news but rather a technical correction following severe overselling. The current price level has cleared the February lows, creating conditions for a rebound, and this purchase has alleviated market concerns about “Saylor turning into a seller.” Aylo also cautioned that if U.S. equities experience greater volatility, there remains a possibility—particularly in June—of forming a slightly lower new low before rebounding, and predicted that the year’s final bottom will emerge later this year. Additionally, Aylo believes external concerns over Strategy’s large-scale BTC sell-offs are an overinterpretation: while the company may sell a small amount of BTC to repay debt, the likelihood of a substantial sell-off is extremely low.
Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has entered a deeper correction phase, dropping to a low of $59,200 on June 5, a cumulative 53% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. This decline is primarily driven by record outflows from spot ETFs, derivative deleveraging, and sustained pressure from a high-interest-rate macroeconomic environment. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note currently remains above 4.45%, further dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut.On-chain and fund flow data suggest the current market is closer to a "distribution phase" than "panic selling." The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has turned significantly negative after strong accumulation from April to May, indicating that recent buyers are steadily exiting. Meanwhile, the cost basis for short-term holders has fallen below the True Market Mean of $77,800, meaning a large number of new investors are in unrealized loss positions, creating significant selling pressure for any potential rebound. As the price approaches the overall realized cost basis of around $53,900, the characteristic of reducing positions on bounces is becoming more pronounced.At the macro level, the US economy continues to grow, but inflation is eroding real household income. The job market remains robust, with job openings hitting a nearly two-year high and continued job creation exceeding replacement levels. Sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality are all expanding. However, inflation is expected to continue outpacing wage growth, leading to a decline in real purchasing power and presenting the Fed with a more complex balance between maintaining employment and controlling inflation.The key driver of current market trends has shifted to real yields. Driven by rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, inflation expectations are heating up, pushing both nominal and real yields on US Treasuries higher. Higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting investors to reassess their allocation to risk assets. Bitcoin has been the first to feel the impact, with US spot ETFs experiencing their largest outflows since launch. The market has also shifted from betting on rate cuts to pricing in the risk of "higher for longer" interest rates. Bitfinex Alpha believes that, in the current phase, the trajectory of real yields has become the most important variable influencing performance in both traditional financial and digital asset markets.Despite short-term pressure, the institutionalization process continues. The report notes that Securitize's approval to list on the New York Stock Exchange signals that tokenization infrastructure is further integrating into the traditional financial system. Concurrently, the US GENIUS Act is advancing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, bringing issuers under compliance requirements similar to those for traditional financial institutions. The institutio
According to BIT’s official Chinese-language account (@BITofficial_CN) market recap, the crypto market as a whole faced pressure last week. BTC declined from approximately $73,400 on June 1 to around $63,100 on Monday this week, with an intraday low of $61,400; ETH also fell in tandem to roughly $1,680. On the funding front, BTC spot ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $4.4 billion in outflows. Compounded by whale selling and concerns over Mt. Gox wallet transfers, short-term selling pressure continued to intensify. As BTC approaches the critical support level of $60,000, the market posted an initial rebound within the past 24 hours. Going forward, key factors to monitor include whether ETF inflows resume, whether the $60,000 support level holds, and how this week’s CPI data impacts risk sentiment.