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Nomura Securities: Unitree Robotics Ranks First in Global Shipment Volume, Cost Advantage Builds Moat
According to TechFlow Research, Nomura Securities' initiation report on August 19 indicated that Unitree Robotics is the company with the highest shipment volume of humanoid robots globally, with pure humanoid robot shipments exceeding 5,500 units in 2025, far surpassing peers, and is one of the few embodied AI companies globally to achieve profitability. Nomura issued a Buy rating and a target price of 370 yuan, representing 145% upside potential compared to the current stock price of 151 yuan. The company's core moat is full-stack self-developed hardware, compressing the cost of outsourced components to 14% to 18% of total costs. The gross margin of main operations rose from 44% in 2022 to 60% in 2025, with adjusted net profit reaching 590 million yuan (net profit margin approximately 35%). Nomura predicts revenue from 2026 to 2028 will reach 2.69 billion, 5.4 billion, and 13.18 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth of 58%, 101%, and 144%. The research report judges that Unitree's product iteration speed and full-matrix layout constitute a first-mover advantage, covering the complete tech stack of "Mobility + Manipulation + Interaction" from quadruped robots to humanoid robots. However, the US FCC restricted list poses the biggest policy risk. In July 2026, the FCC will include foreign-produced advanced robot equipment in the restricted list. Unitree's models currently on sale have been authorized to continue sales, but new models will be prohibited from entering the US market. Nomura believes this risk is structural, and compliance paths are almost infeasible. The target price corresponds to 145% upside potential, with catalysts including the implementation of self-developed world models and the volume ramp-up of new products such as R1/H2.
Citi: US Proposed Ban on Chinese Optical Modules Unlikely to Implement in Short Term, Eoptolink and Dongshan Precision Have Largest Exposure
According to Chaoxiang Research, Citigroup's research report on August 9 noted that the FCC's proposed ban on Chinese optical modules entering the U.S. market, as reported by Reuters, remains at the proposal stage, and optical modules have not been listed in any effective bans. Chinese optical module suppliers hold a 60% to 70% share of high-speed optical modules for U.S. hyperscale vendors, and non-Chinese suppliers cannot fill the gap in the short term, making the likelihood of the ban being implemented low. Although FCC Order 26-50 establishes two types of restricted list mechanisms for manufacturers and origins, optical modules are only mentioned in the bill of materials disclosure examples and are not restricted products. Citigroup believes that the origin restriction path is more likely to be implemented than the manufacturer restriction, but the probability of implementation in the near term is very low. Eoptolink and Dongshan Precision have the largest exposure to U.S. optical module exports and face higher risks if the ban is implemented; TFC Communication, as a passive component supplier, is relatively insulated. Citigroup gives a buy rating to Eoptolink, Dongshan Precision, and TFC Communication, with target prices of 701 yuan, 350 yuan, and 419 yuan RMB, respectively.
Morgan Stanley: US Plans to Restrict Chinese Optical Module Components, Coherent and Other Non-Chinese Suppliers Face Substitution Window
According to TechFlow Research, Reuters reported on August 4 that the Trump administration and the FCC are preparing to restrict Chinese data center components from entering the US, with optical modules specifically mentioned. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a research report on the same day that Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink collectively account for approximately 50% of the optical module market share; if the ban is implemented, this portion of demand will shift to non-Chinese suppliers. Coherent (COHR) is the biggest beneficiary, Lumentum (LITE) indirectly benefits from the continued tight supply of EMLs, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Fabrinet (FN) also have the capacity to absorb the demand. Morgan Stanley believes the short-term implementation of the ban faces two major bottlenecks: non-Chinese manufacturers' capacity cannot quickly fill the demand gap; Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates rely on China's AXTI, with Lumentum having just signed a new supply agreement last week and one of the purposes of Coherent's CEO visiting China several months ago being to secure InP supply. The ban will cause a supply shock in the short term but is beneficial for the restructuring of the non-Chinese supply chain in the long term.
美国 FCC 宣布禁止进口外国 AI 人形机器人，国家安全与数据泄露风险是核心考量
据福布斯报道，美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）于 2026年 7月 27 日正式宣布，禁止进口外国制造的 AI 人形机器人，理由是国家安全威胁。FCC 将这类设备定性为"特洛伊木马"——其搭载的高精度传感器可持续采集用户家庭及企业的敏感数据，并将其传输至境外实体，存在被用于大规模监控或情报活动的风险，且相关设备还可能遭远程操控。 禁令虽针对所有外国制造商，但实际上对中国影响最为显著，因中国目前在全球 AI 人形机器人市场占据较大份额。推动本土制造业发展亦是此次禁令的重要次要目标。
Goldman Sachs: US Plans to Ban Chinese Optical Modules, Leading Manufacturers' Moat Deeper Than Market Expects
According to TechFlow Research, Reuters reported on August 4 that the Trump administration and the FCC are drafting a plan to ban US imports of Chinese data center components, with optical modules specifically mentioned. Goldman Sachs responded to three core questions in an August 10 research report: rapid technological iteration, strong AI demand, and high R&D requirements for multiple SKU varieties make clients more reliant on existing leading manufacturers in the current environment and unlikely to switch to new suppliers easily. Seven of the top ten global optical module suppliers are headquartered in China, and their market share in 2025 will expand further compared to 2024. Goldman Sachs pointed out that leading manufacturers have outstanding advantages in capacity commitments, automated production, and manufacturing efficiency. Product upgrades to 1.6T and above further raise the manufacturing threshold, making it difficult for small and medium-sized manufacturers to catch up in the short term. Overseas capacity deployment is underway; Eoptolink's Phase I in Thailand is at full capacity, and Phase II will expand in 2026, establishing a long-term diversification trend. Goldman Sachs gave Buy ratings to Eoptolink and Robotechnik, and also gave Buy ratings to FOCI, LandMark, and VPEC (all Taiwan stocks), believing that technology, capacity, and customer synergy constitute difficult-to-replicate competitive barriers.
Goldman Sachs: LEO Satellite Deployment Accelerating, Over 300,000 in Orbit by 2031
According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' July 8 Global LEO Satellite Report shows that the number of LEO satellites in orbit reached 10,000 in 2025, is expected to reach 24,000 in 2028, 305,000 in 2031, and could reach 396,000 under the blue sky scenario. SpaceX, Amazon, and others are accelerating deployment; Amazon has received FCC approval to add 4,500 satellites. China's three major constellations, GW/G60/Honghu, plan for over 35,000 satellites. Among the targets covered by Goldman Sachs, US stocks SpaceX, Amazon, Boeing, and Kratos benefit; A-share Tongyu Communication received a buy rating with a target price of 79 yuan; HK-stock ZTE is a core supplier of ground equipment, with about 70,000 satellites awaiting launch in the next five years.
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Nomura Securities: Unitree Robotics Ranks First in Global Shipment Volume, Cost Advantage Builds Moat
According to TechFlow Research, Nomura Securities' initiation report on August 19 indicated that Unitree Robotics is the company with the highest shipment volume of humanoid robots globally, with pure humanoid robot shipments exceeding 5,500 units in 2025, far surpassing peers, and is one of the few embodied AI companies globally to achieve profitability. Nomura issued a Buy rating and a target price of 370 yuan, representing 145% upside potential compared to the current stock price of 151 yuan. The company's core moat is full-stack self-developed hardware, compressing the cost of outsourced components to 14% to 18% of total costs. The gross margin of main operations rose from 44% in 2022 to 60% in 2025, with adjusted net profit reaching 590 million yuan (net profit margin approximately 35%). Nomura predicts revenue from 2026 to 2028 will reach 2.69 billion, 5.4 billion, and 13.18 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth of 58%, 101%, and 144%. The research report judges that Unitree's product iteration speed and full-matrix layout constitute a first-mover advantage, covering the complete tech stack of "Mobility + Manipulation + Interaction" from quadruped robots to humanoid robots. However, the US FCC restricted list poses the biggest policy risk. In July 2026, the FCC will include foreign-produced advanced robot equipment in the restricted list. Unitree's models currently on sale have been authorized to continue sales, but new models will be prohibited from entering the US market. Nomura believes this risk is structural, and compliance paths are almost infeasible. The target price corresponds to 145% upside potential, with catalysts including the implementation of self-developed world models and the volume ramp-up of new products such as R1/H2.
Goldman Sachs: US Plans to Ban Chinese Optical Modules, Leading Manufacturers' Moat Deeper Than Market Expects
According to TechFlow Research, Reuters reported on August 4 that the Trump administration and the FCC are drafting a plan to ban US imports of Chinese data center components, with optical modules specifically mentioned. Goldman Sachs responded to three core questions in an August 10 research report: rapid technological iteration, strong AI demand, and high R&D requirements for multiple SKU varieties make clients more reliant on existing leading manufacturers in the current environment and unlikely to switch to new suppliers easily. Seven of the top ten global optical module suppliers are headquartered in China, and their market share in 2025 will expand further compared to 2024. Goldman Sachs pointed out that leading manufacturers have outstanding advantages in capacity commitments, automated production, and manufacturing efficiency. Product upgrades to 1.6T and above further raise the manufacturing threshold, making it difficult for small and medium-sized manufacturers to catch up in the short term. Overseas capacity deployment is underway; Eoptolink's Phase I in Thailand is at full capacity, and Phase II will expand in 2026, establishing a long-term diversification trend. Goldman Sachs gave Buy ratings to Eoptolink and Robotechnik, and also gave Buy ratings to FOCI, LandMark, and VPEC (all Taiwan stocks), believing that technology, capacity, and customer synergy constitute difficult-to-replicate competitive barriers.
Citi: US Proposed Ban on Chinese Optical Modules Unlikely to Implement in Short Term, Eoptolink and Dongshan Precision Have Largest Exposure
According to Chaoxiang Research, Citigroup's research report on August 9 noted that the FCC's proposed ban on Chinese optical modules entering the U.S. market, as reported by Reuters, remains at the proposal stage, and optical modules have not been listed in any effective bans. Chinese optical module suppliers hold a 60% to 70% share of high-speed optical modules for U.S. hyperscale vendors, and non-Chinese suppliers cannot fill the gap in the short term, making the likelihood of the ban being implemented low. Although FCC Order 26-50 establishes two types of restricted list mechanisms for manufacturers and origins, optical modules are only mentioned in the bill of materials disclosure examples and are not restricted products. Citigroup believes that the origin restriction path is more likely to be implemented than the manufacturer restriction, but the probability of implementation in the near term is very low. Eoptolink and Dongshan Precision have the largest exposure to U.S. optical module exports and face higher risks if the ban is implemented; TFC Communication, as a passive component supplier, is relatively insulated. Citigroup gives a buy rating to Eoptolink, Dongshan Precision, and TFC Communication, with target prices of 701 yuan, 350 yuan, and 419 yuan RMB, respectively.
Morgan Stanley: US Plans to Restrict Chinese Optical Module Components, Coherent and Other Non-Chinese Suppliers Face Substitution Window
According to TechFlow Research, Reuters reported on August 4 that the Trump administration and the FCC are preparing to restrict Chinese data center components from entering the US, with optical modules specifically mentioned. Morgan Stanley pointed out in a research report on the same day that Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink collectively account for approximately 50% of the optical module market share; if the ban is implemented, this portion of demand will shift to non-Chinese suppliers. Coherent (COHR) is the biggest beneficiary, Lumentum (LITE) indirectly benefits from the continued tight supply of EMLs, and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Fabrinet (FN) also have the capacity to absorb the demand. Morgan Stanley believes the short-term implementation of the ban faces two major bottlenecks: non-Chinese manufacturers' capacity cannot quickly fill the demand gap; Indium Phosphide (InP) substrates rely on China's AXTI, with Lumentum having just signed a new supply agreement last week and one of the purposes of Coherent's CEO visiting China several months ago being to secure InP supply. The ban will cause a supply shock in the short term but is beneficial for the restructuring of the non-Chinese supply chain in the long term.
美国 FCC 宣布禁止进口外国 AI 人形机器人，国家安全与数据泄露风险是核心考量
据福布斯报道，美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）于 2026年 7月 27 日正式宣布，禁止进口外国制造的 AI 人形机器人，理由是国家安全威胁。FCC 将这类设备定性为"特洛伊木马"——其搭载的高精度传感器可持续采集用户家庭及企业的敏感数据，并将其传输至境外实体，存在被用于大规模监控或情报活动的风险，且相关设备还可能遭远程操控。 禁令虽针对所有外国制造商，但实际上对中国影响最为显著，因中国目前在全球 AI 人形机器人市场占据较大份额。推动本土制造业发展亦是此次禁令的重要次要目标。
Goldman Sachs: LEO Satellite Deployment Accelerating, Over 300,000 in Orbit by 2031
According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' July 8 Global LEO Satellite Report shows that the number of LEO satellites in orbit reached 10,000 in 2025, is expected to reach 24,000 in 2028, 305,000 in 2031, and could reach 396,000 under the blue sky scenario. SpaceX, Amazon, and others are accelerating deployment; Amazon has received FCC approval to add 4,500 satellites. China's three major constellations, GW/G60/Honghu, plan for over 35,000 satellites. Among the targets covered by Goldman Sachs, US stocks SpaceX, Amazon, Boeing, and Kratos benefit; A-share Tongyu Communication received a buy rating with a target price of 79 yuan; HK-stock ZTE is a core supplier of ground equipment, with about 70,000 satellites awaiting launch in the next five years.