Nomura Securities: Unitree Robotics Ranks First in Global Shipment Volume, Cost Advantage Builds Moat

According to TechFlow Research, Nomura Securities' initiation report on August 19 indicated that Unitree Robotics is the company with the highest shipment volume of humanoid robots globally, with pure humanoid robot shipments exceeding 5,500 units in 2025, far surpassing peers, and is one of the few embodied AI companies globally to achieve profitability. Nomura issued a Buy rating and a target price of 370 yuan, representing 145% upside potential compared to the current stock price of 151 yuan. The company's core moat is full-stack self-developed hardware, compressing the cost of outsourced components to 14% to 18% of total costs. The gross margin of main operations rose from 44% in 2022 to 60% in 2025, with adjusted net profit reaching 590 million yuan (net profit margin approximately 35%). Nomura predicts revenue from 2026 to 2028 will reach 2.69 billion, 5.4 billion, and 13.18 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth of 58%, 101%, and 144%. The research report judges that Unitree's product iteration speed and full-matrix layout constitute a first-mover advantage, covering the complete tech stack of "Mobility + Manipulation + Interaction" from quadruped robots to humanoid robots. However, the US FCC restricted list poses the biggest policy risk. In July 2026, the FCC will include foreign-produced advanced robot equipment in the restricted list. Unitree's models currently on sale have been authorized to continue sales, but new models will be prohibited from entering the US market. Nomura believes this risk is structural, and compliance paths are almost infeasible. The target price corresponds to 145% upside potential, with catalysts including the implementation of self-developed world models and the volume ramp-up of new products such as R1/H2.