Morgan Stanley: Gold Hits $4,450 Price Target, Central Bank Purchases and Fiscal Concerns Jointly Provide Support

According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's August 20 report indicates that gold has hit its fourth-quarter target price of $4,450 per ounce. From July to August, easing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes spurred net inflows of 70 tons into gold ETFs, reversing the 93-ton net outflow seen from May to June. The People's Bank of China purchased 60 tons of gold this year, marking its highest accumulation since 2023; Poland added 82 tons, raising total holdings to 632 tons and approaching its 700-ton target. Morgan Stanley maintains that gold prices are decoupling from the real interest rate framework. Persistent central bank buying, COMEX short positions falling to their lowest since April 2020, and fiscal concerns underlying yield curve steepening form a new structural foundation. The bank projects that gold prices could surpass $5,000 per ounce by 2027, with US inflation data serving as the main short-term volatility risk.