UBS: Micron HBM Tighter Than Expected, NAND Short-Term Noise Does Not Alter Long-Term Buy Thesis

According to TechFlow Research, UBS noted in its August 10 research report that Micron's Q3 NAND contract price increase fell from an expected 28% to around 20%, but DRAM is tighter than expected. HBM4 and HBM4E pricing continues to exceed expectations; NVIDIA downgraded the HBM specifications for VR300 due to supply constraints, yet total HBM consumption in 2027 instead increased from 58.7 billion Gb to 61.5 billion Gb, and the HBM blended average price year-over-year increase was raised from 67% to 79%. Micron's 2027 HBM revenue is expected to reach $26.35 billion, with ASP rising from $20.03 per Gb to $28.48. UBS maintains a Buy rating with a target price of $1,625; the current stock price of $877 implies approximately 85% upside potential. DRAM supply tightness will last at least until Q2 2028; NAND short-term pricing pace slows but enterprise SSD demand offsets consumer-end weakness. YMTC is shifting some incremental capacity to DRAM rather than NAND, which will extend the NAND pricing cycle. UBS believes Micron's profitability is a structural reset, with cumulative free cash flow by 2028 expected to exceed $450 billion.