JPMorgan Chase's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions include Bitcoin for the first time, with an expected compound annualized return of 10% and volatility of 55%.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) shared a chart on X featuring J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (31st edition), which has now included Bitcoin in its asset class forecasts. According to the report, Bitcoin’s expected compounded return is 10.0%, its arithmetic mean return is 20.9%, and its annualized volatility is 55.0%. Comparative data for other assets are as follows: • US large-cap stocks: compounded return 7.5%, volatility 18.0% • US small-cap stocks: compounded return 7.7%, volatility 21.0% • Gold: compounded return 5.5%, volatility 17.2% • US aggregate bonds: compounded return 5.6%, volatility 4.7% • US cash: compounded return 3.2%, volatility 0.7% • US real estate investment trusts (REITs): compounded return 8.2%, volatility 17.3% Based on arithmetic mean returns, Bitcoin (20.9%) ranks highest among the assets listed in the report, followed by US small-cap stocks (9.66%) and US REITs (9.55%). By compounded return, Bitcoin (10.0%) also tops all other assets in the table.