Nomura: Packaging Substrate Shipment Value Surges 98% YoY, Tight Supply to Last at Least 2 to 3 Years

According to TechFlow Research, Nomura Securities' August 17 research report noted that Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's June production statistics showed rigid module substrate shipment value reached 29.1 billion yen, surging 98% year-on-year, setting a record high for the second consecutive month. Shipment volume by area increased 20%, while the average price per square meter rose to 1.429 million yen, up 65% year-on-year, also reaching a new high. Nomura judges that the tight supply-demand situation for high-end packaging substrates will be difficult to ease in the next 2 to 3 years. Unlike the false boom triggered by customer stockpiling in 2022, this tightness stems from decreased production yields after transitioning to larger-sized substrates, with demand-side orders for server CPUs, network switches, and AI accelerators surging simultaneously. Nomura expects that mass production of the new EMIB-T technology in the second half of 2027 will further squeeze capacity on advanced production lines, and supply-demand balance may not be reached until after 2028. The top industry pick is Ibiden, with a Buy rating.