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Wall Street investment banks’ second-quarter fee income expected to hit four-and-a-half year high, with SpaceX IPO as key catalyst
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the five largest U.S. investment banks are expected to generate approximately $11.1 billion in investment banking fee income for the second quarter of 2026, a 27% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2021. The growth is primarily driven by the SpaceX IPO and a resurgence in large M&A deals. The SpaceX IPO alone contributed approximately $500 million in fees to the 23 underwriting banks, setting a new record for the highest fees ever generated from a public offering. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each earned around $100 million from the deal.Additionally, M&A advisory fees for the five major banks are expected to rise approximately 30% year-over-year to over $4 billion. Market observers believe that future listing plans of major tech companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could further drive growth in Wall Street investment banking activities. (Financial Times)
Market
Street
Morgan Stanley: China's Rocket Recovery Debut Successful, SpaceX Faces Long-Term Threat
According to TechFlow Research, a Morgan Stanley report on July 10 pointed out that China's Long March 10B rocket completed its first orbital flight and successfully achieved sea recovery, becoming the third entity globally to master orbital-level rocket recovery technology, with the technical pathway now cleared. The Long March 10B is the reusable single-core version of the Long March 10 family, with a payload capacity of approximately 16 tons in reusable configuration. US Space Force officials estimated at the beginning of the year that China would need about 3.5 years to master rocket reuse technology, and this debut may accelerate this timeline.
Long
Rocket
Space
Bitcoin mining company TeraWulf plans to raise $3.5 billion to build a data center leased by Anthropic
According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin mining company TeraWulf plans to raise approximately $3.5 billion, led by Morgan Stanley, to expand its Justified Data data center campus located in Hawesville, Kentucky.
Bitcoin
TeraWulf
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $95.31 million
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $95.31 million yesterday, with Fidelity (FBTC) recording an outflow of $63.25 million, Ark (ARKB) an outflow of $39.93 million, VanEck (HODL) an inflow of $5.36 million, Morgan Stanley (MSBT) an inflow of $2.17 million, and multiple ETFs including BlackRock (IBIT) recording zero flow for the day.
Ark
Ark
Bitcoin
IBIT
InfinityBit
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Tighten Prediction Market Trading Rules Amid Rising Insider Trading Concerns
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
Chainalysis
Insider
Kalshi
Market
Polymarket
摩根大通
Morgan Stanley: 2027 CoWoS Demand to Reach 2.69 Million Units, CPU Officially Joins Advanced Packaging Camp
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's July 8 AI Supply Chain Report estimates that global CoWoS demand will reach 2.694 million units in 2027, a 93% increase from 2026. NVIDIA remains the largest customer (1.222 million units, accounting for 45%), while AMD demand will surge 308% (130,000 units → 530,000 units), with MI455 (1 million units) and MI450 (500,000 units) as the main drivers in 2027. The AMD Venice CPU will adopt CoWoS packaging for the first time, with 2027 shipments estimated at 6.75 million units; CoW production will be undertaken by ASE/SPIL, Amkor, and Powertech, marking the large-scale expansion of CoWoS from AI accelerators to server CPUs. Google TPU Sunfish full-year shipments are 960,000 units, concentrated in 4Q26. NVIDIA Blackwell inventory was clarified as a supply chain buffer to be fully absorbed within 2026, while Rubin 2027 shipments are near 7 million units.
Chain
NVIDIA
Reach
Reach
Venice
Legendary Investor Grantham Criticizes SpaceX: The Market is Chasing "The Most Outrageous Investment Story in History"
Jeremy Grantham, renowned investor, co-founder, and chief investment strategist at GMO, stated that the market might look back on the SpaceX listing in 50 years with a sense of "mockery," calling it "the most outrageous IPO in human history."Grantham believes that SpaceX’s grand vision of "making humanity a multi-planetary species," coupled with the market’s current strong enthusiasm for the company, could be viewed by investors in the future as excessive optimism. "Everyone is lining up to tell you to buy the most outrageous IPO in human history. 50 years from now, people will quote paragraphs from the prospectus and laugh about it," he said.Since SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100, it has garnered significant institutional attention, but its stock price has faced pressure recently. Currently, SpaceX’s stock is down about 7% from its one-month high, hovering around $150, only slightly above its IPO target price of $135.Wall Street institutions are divided on SpaceX’s future valuation. Morgan Stanley reportedly has given it a $300 price target, while Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a target of around $205. JPMorgan Chase believes that Elon Musk’s goal of achieving $1 trillion in revenue by 2031 is "theoretically achievable" but would require extremely strong execution capabilities.Grantham also pointed out that one of SpaceX’s biggest risks is its heavy reliance on Musk’s personal leadership. He noted that Musk holds approximately 82% of the voting control, which serves as both a key driver of SpaceX’s culture and innovation capability, and a source of risk related to governance structure and leadership changes.However, Grantham acknowledged that SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq index could generate additional buying pressure. He said that as a large amount of funds tracking the Nasdaq index are forced to allocate to SpaceX stock, market demand may exceed supply, thereby pushing the stock price up.Nevertheless, he believes that in the long run, SpaceX still faces significant challenges. If the valuation logic for the company ultimately holds, the future world could undergo drastic changes driven by the development of artificial intelligence and automation technologies. Conversely, if expectations fail to materialize, this IPO would also become a landmark event in financial history. (Fortune)
Market
Street
SpaceX IPO Quiet Period Ends, Wall Street Firms Upgrades Ratings in Rapid Succession
as the 25-day quiet period following SpaceX's (SPCX) June IPO comes to an end, Wall Street analysts have begun releasing formal research reports. Multiple major brokerages have issued favorable ratings, indicating institutional investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential.As IPO underwriters, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have assigned buy-equivalent ratings to SpaceX. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target of $300. Additionally, institutions such as Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and UBS have also initiated coverage with buy or equivalent ratings. Among them, Raymond James Financial provided the most optimistic forecast; analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage of SpaceX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target as high as $800, believing SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."Analysis suggests that market optimism towards SpaceX is primarily based on its布局 (layout/foundation) in areas such as rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and government contracts. At the same time, the company's communications business can provide a sustainable source of revenue and support future expansion of launch scale.As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX holds 18,712 Bitcoins. Wall Street believes that the concentrated coverage following the end of the IPO quiet period provides a window for institutional investors to conduct their first systematic assessment of SpaceX's valuation. The fact that nearly all major institutions simultaneously issued positive ratings is relatively rare for large-scale IPOs. (CoinDesk)
based
Brian
CoinDesk
June
Starlink
Street
Morgan Stanley: Short-Term Correction in Storage, But 2027 Earnings Still Expected to Grow 35%-40%
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's July 6 Asia-Pacific Memory Technology Flash Note pointed out that memory is approaching the peak rate of change in year-over-year prices, inventory, and the breadth of earnings revisions; short-term stock prices may face pressure, but the AI-driven memory bull market is far from over, with industry profits expected to grow by 35% to 40% by 2027. Market concerns about compute surplus among top cloud vendors may be overinterpreted; the true direction depends on whether hyperscalers maintain capital expenditure during the Q2 earnings season. Stock prices were not revalued after the announcement of Long-Term Agreements, reflecting the market's memory of LTAs becoming inventory burdens during the pandemic; actual execution needs to be seen rather than the agreements themselves. Morgan Stanley suggests seeking opportunities in DRAM and traditional memory, avoiding module manufacturers. Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit is expected to be about 85 trillion won, SK Hynix about 65 trillion won, both in line with market expectations.
Long
Market
Memory
Pacific
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $266 million.
According to data from Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $265.68 million yesterday. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT led with a net inflow of $209.39 million; Ark's ARKB had a net inflow of $32.98 million, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust had a net inflow of $42.25 million, Morgan Stanley's MSBT had a net inflow of $10.96 million, Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $9.71 million, and Bitwise's BITB had a net inflow of $4.84 million.
Ark
Ark
Bitcoin
Bitwise
Grayscale
IBIT
Morgan Stanley: Meta's Self-Built GPU Services Signal Supply Shortage, DRAM Shortage Extended to Early 2028
According to TechFlow Research, the Morgan Stanley Weekly Report reinterprets the true meaning of the May SIA data. Meta's development of internal cloud services appears on the surface to be business competition with AWS/Azure, but in essence is a forced move driven by GPU shortage. When the enterprises with the strongest self-build capabilities in the market are all scrambling for capacity, the market is already in a state of extreme scarcity.
Agentwood Studios
Extended
GPU.Net
Node AI
Morgan Stanley: CPO Growth Overestimated by 30 Times, Only 23k Units in 2026
According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's latest CPO report indicates a significant divergence between market expectations for CPO and actual shipments, with only 23k units expected in 2026, whereas prior market expectations were generally above 200k. The core bottleneck lies in TSMC's PIC capacity ramp-up (10→25kwpm) and the 20-50% yield dilemma. This expectation gap will directly impact core targets such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC. The report also downgraded TSMC's CoWoS capacity forecast (2027 45→40kwpm), and AllRing's 53% growth expectation faces significant risks. Optical companies such as Lumentum and Coherent are expected to contribute less than 1% to CPO in 2026-2027. In terms of the A-share market, Tfc Communication, SMIC, and Eoptolink are largely absent from core links in the CPO supply chain, with limited relevance to the concepts hyped by the market. Morgan Stanley advises investors to remain cautious before the potential "disappointing quarterly report" in Q2 2027.
Coherent
NVIDIA
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $221.72 million.
According to Trader T (@thepfund) data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $221.72 million yesterday, following 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows. Performance of each product is as follows: • Fidelity FBTC: +$165.96 million (largest inflow of the day) • Ark ARKB: +$91.84 million • VanEck HODL: +$4.35 million • BlackRock IBIT: -$40.43 million (counter-trend outflow) • Other products (Bitwise, Invesco, Franklin, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, Grayscale, Morgan Stanley): No fund changes for the day
Ark
Ark
Bitcoin
Bitwise
Franklin
Grayscale
Morgan Stanley Rates Meta: Cloud Focus on Compute Rental, Target Price $775
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley released a research report on July 1 stating that, regarding Bloomberg's report on Meta planning a cloud computing business, it judges that Meta is more likely to choose the lighter path of renting out idle computing power rather than building a full cloud service benchmarking AWS. The report calculates that renting out 250 MW of computing power at $40/watt could be accretive to 2028 earnings per share by approximately 8%, and when the scale reaches 1000 MW, the accretion could reach 33%, but this earnings accretion is viewed as a transitional buffer, not the core logic supporting the rating. Morgan Stanley also mentioned that Meta's self-held computing power will expand to 1.9 GW and 3.4 GW in 2026 and 2027 respectively, providing room for the rental calculations. Morgan Stanley maintains its Overweight rating on Meta with a target price of $775, representing approximately 37.6% upside compared to the closing price of $563.29, while setting the 2027 capital expenditure expectation at $175 billion; if the cloud computing business scales up, there is a possibility of an upward revision in capital expenditure.
Agentwood Studios
Focus
Price
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $296 million.
According to Trader T (@thepfund), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $296 million yesterday. On the outflow side: BlackRock $IBIT saw an outflow of $219 million, Grayscale $GBTC saw an outflow of $62.79 million, Fidelity $FBTC saw an outflow of $51.02 million, and Ark $ARKB saw an outflow of $39.90 million. On the inflow side: Grayscale Mini $BTC saw an inflow of $36.33 million, Morgan Stanley $MSBT saw an inflow of $29.81 million, Invesco $BTCO saw an inflow of $5.37 million, Franklin $EZBC saw an inflow of $3.48 million, and VanEck $HODL saw an inflow of $2.13 million. Bitwise $BITB, Valkyrie $BRRR, and WisdomTree $BTCW had zero inflows and outflows for the day.
Ark
Ark
Bitcoin
Bitwise
BRRR
Franklin
Morgan Stanley Bullish on GOOGL and META, True Valuation Undervalued by Over 30%
According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley released an Internet Tracking Report, noting that Google and Meta's nominal EV/EBITDA multiples appear inexpensive (GOOGL 16.1x, META 8.9x), but after adjusting for stock-based compensation accounting treatment, the true multiple rises from 16.3x to 31.1x (+91%), still lower than the five-year average of 31.6x, implying that the true valuation of internet giants is undervalued by the market by more than 30%.
based
Bullish
Cometa
Meta Pool
MetaDAO
Metadium
“White-Hair Stock God” Serenity: Semiconductor Supply Chain Bottlenecks Intensify, OSAT Providers Raise Prices
Odaily Odaily News “White-Hair Stock God” Serenity summarized recent dynamics in the semiconductor industry on X platform, indicating multiple signs show the semiconductor supply chain is tightening. Citing institutional and industry sources, Serenity noted that Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 forecast for humanoid robot shipments in China from 14,000 and 28,000 units at the beginning of the year to 50,000 units. Probe cards and test sockets are expected to see price increases due to precious metal price hikes and shortages of test pin capacity. Yageo has raised prices on products such as MLCCs, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, tantalum capacitors, polymer aluminum capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors.Additionally, Serenity stated that Meta’s next-generation Vistara architecture will adopt DDR4 memory combined with a CXL expansion solution. OpenAI is reported to have made a breakthrough in inference optimization, halving inference costs and reducing GPU demand. After Samsung signed a long-term supply agreement (LTA) with a major US tech customer, it has also begun adopting long-term agreement supply models for MLCCs.Serenity also cited a Digitimes report that OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) packaging and testing providers have begun to raise prices. Currently, memory and IC packaging and testing capacity have both become significant bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain.
Assembly
Chain
GPU.Net
Node AI
Raise
Serenity
Morgan Stanley Raises Alphabet Target to $415, Bullish on Google Cloud Hitting $308 Billion by 2028
The report estimates that Google will add 9 GW of computing capacity in 2028, with 7 GW from self-developed TPUs and 2 GW from NVIDIA GPUs. Based on this, Morgan Stanley predicts Google Cloud revenue will reach $308 billion in 2028 ($229 billion from core cloud services plus $79 billion from external TPU sales), with Cloud EBIT reaching $132 billion, accounting for 46% of the entire company.
Based
Based
Bullish
GPU.Net
Node AI
NVIDIA
Silicon Valley Bank: Bitcoin Collateralized Loan Market Accelerating Institutionalization, Interest Rates Expected to Continue Declining
According to a research report by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the Bitcoin collateralized loan market has completed its reconstruction after experiencing the successive collapses of BlockFi, Celsius, and Genesis in 2022, and the current ecosystem places greater emphasis on collateral transparency and risk management. In Q1 2026, the total crypto collateralized loan volume reached $67 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 50%. Several major US banks have already offered Bitcoin collateralized credit lines to select clients, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi, Charles Schwab, and Morgan Stanley all having entered the market. In February this year, Canadian digital asset lending company Ledn completed the issuance of $188 million in Bitcoin collateralized ABS, receiving a BBB investment-grade rating from S&P Global, marking the first Bitcoin collateralized securitized product approved by a major rating agency.
Bitcoin
Bitgreen
BlockFi
Genesis
Genesis
Ledn
Kalshi in Talks to Raise Funding at $40 Billion Valuation
prediction market platform Kalshi is in talks to raise a new round of funding at a valuation of approximately $40 billion, with a potential deal closing as early as the third quarter. Last month, Kalshi completed a $1 billion funding round from investors including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, and Morgan Stanley, at a valuation of $22 billion.Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company is considering an IPO, but it will not go public in 2026, with a potential listing likely no earlier than late 2027 or 2028. Kalshi reported that as of April 2026, its annualized trading volume reached $178 billion, a 32-fold increase year-over-year.Kalshi is currently embroiled in a legal dispute between U.S. state and federal regulators over the oversight of prediction markets. The controversy includes whether sports event contracts constitute derivatives regulated by the CFTC or illegal gambling. CME has sued the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's "perpetual" futures, Kentucky sued Kalshi and Polymarket this month, and the CFTC subsequently sued Kentucky to block its enforcement action. (Decrypt)
Decrypt
Kalshi
Polymarket
Raise