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JPMorgan: Tech Valuations Fully Contracted, Semiconductors Outperform Software
According to Trend Research, a JPMorgan research report dated September 28, 2026 notes that the technology and AI ecosystem stagnated for three months from June through last week, though valuation downgrades have already become highly pronounced across most sectors. Forward earnings for semiconductors continue to climb by approximately 30%, while software has seen almost no earnings upgrades. Valuations for the Tech Seven Giants have fallen to ten-year lows, trading at nearly one standard deviation below the broader market. Capital expenditures by hyperscalers are projected to grow at a 28% compound annual growth rate through 2030. JPMorgan argues that with cleaner positioning, persistent earnings momentum, and an intact capital expenditure upcycle, it advises re-entering the technology sector and reopening a semiconductor-over-software pair trade. Agentic AI is pushing the CPU-to-GPU ratio from 1:4 to 1:8 toward 1:1, providing tailwinds for CPU-related names.
Goldman Sachs: Q2 Earnings Up 135%, APAC Market Still Has 21% Upside Potential
According to Trend Research, Goldman Sachs' August 21, 2026 research report notes that the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index (MXAPJ) posted Q2 net profit growth of 135% year-over-year and 52% quarter-over-quarter, with 46% of companies beating expectations and a median surprise of 4.3%. The information technology sector led the gains, with earnings up 390% YoY. The current MXAPJ forward P/E ratio stands at 11x, two standard deviations below its 10-year average, placing it in a deeply discounted range. Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month target price of 1,080 points, implying a 21% upside from the current level of 891 points, with an expected total return including dividends of approximately 24%. Goldman Sachs believes earnings resilience will drive valuation repair, recommending overweight positions in capital goods, healthcare, energy, tech hardware and semiconductors, and insurance, while suggesting underweights in autos, software & services, internet, utilities, and metals & mining. Key trading recommendations include going long on portfolios that outperform earnings revisions (launched in July 2021, with a cumulative return of 334%) and going long on AI infrastructure hardware and semiconductors (launched in June 2023, with a cumulative return of 63%). MSCI will adjust its index benchmarks on August 31, triggering approximately $42 billion in two-way capital flows across Asian markets, which could amplify volatility toward the end of the month. Downside risks to monitor include rising long-end US Treasury yields, escalating geopolitical tensions, and the pace of China’s economic recovery.
Coinbase Ventures Becomes the Most Active Crypto VC in the First Half of the Year, Completing 30 Deals Against the Bearish Trend
despite the continued downturn in the crypto market, Coinbase Ventures led the venture capital rankings in the first half of 2026 by completing 30 investments.Animoca Brands followed closely with 19 investments, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) completed 18 investments, and stablecoin issuer Tether participated in 15 deals.Over the past 12 months, Coinbase Ventures has completed 75 investments, continuing to lead the industry. Animoca Brands, YZi Labs, GSR, and a16z have completed 40, 39, 31, and 30 investments, respectively.However, the overall crypto fundraising market remains in a bear market cycle. In June, the total amount raised by crypto companies fell to $1.4 billion, a 63% decrease from $3.8 billion in April. The number of funding rounds also decreased from 89 in May to 61. In comparison, fundraising in April this year was only $698 million, hitting a new low in nearly two years.So far in July, the crypto industry has completed 12 financing rounds, totaling approximately $456 million.In terms of investment focus, Coinbase Ventures has primarily invested in payment protocols, DeFi, and infrastructure over the past six months. This includes participation in seven funding rounds for payment projects, four rounds for DeFi, and three rounds for infrastructure and Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization projects.By sector, the areas that attracted the most capital over the past year were DeFi, payments, and AI. DeFi projects completed 216 funding rounds, the payment sector completed 131 rounds, AI and crypto combination projects completed 128 rounds, and infrastructure projects secured 110 rounds.It is worth noting that while top institutions remain active, the overall number of market participants is decreasing. The number of independent investment institutions in June dropped to 242, nearly halved from 452 in October 2025, reflecting a concentration of capital in the bear market environment. (Cointelegraph)
Analysis: Pre-IPO Hype Spills Over into Prediction Markets, Pre-IPO Trading Becomes a New Trend
as anticipation builds for several potential major IPOs, "prediction market trading" centered around high-profile pre-IPO companies is rapidly heating up, with users betting on pre-IPO performance through prediction contracts.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become primary channels, allowing users to engage in "yes/no" contract trading on key metrics such as valuation ranges and listing timelines. Prices are quoted in cents, settling at $1 if the outcome is correct.Given that ordinary investors cannot directly participate in equity investments in popular private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI before their IPOs, prediction markets are converting related expectations into tradeable, event-driven assets.Analysts believe that as the window for potential "mega IPOs" approaches, prediction markets are leveraging public sentiment and capital attention to turn IPO narratives into short-term volatility opportunities on both on-chain and compliant trading platforms, further expanding their influence in financial speculation and information pricing. (The Information)
Morgan Stanley: AI M&A Wave Shows 'Full Spectrum' Development Trend
Morgan Stanley Global Head of Technology M&A Wally Cheng said that as companies race to fill technological gaps in areas such as chips, electricity, networking, and infrastructure, mergers and acquisitions in the artificial intelligence field are covering all sizes and expanding across multiple industries. Cheng stated: "I believe transaction activity will cover the full spectrum, including both private and public companies." While the semiconductors providing computing power for AI have attracted attention due to their "technological miracle" attributes, the infrastructure surrounding these chips also holds significant value, including areas such as networking, storage, electricity, and real estate. Cheng said that valuations in the AI industry remain "very difficult" because a balance must be struck between "imaginative unicorns with rainbow-like prospects" and actual execution risks. Evercore Senior Managing Director of Technology Investment Banking Tammy Kiely echoed similar views. She said potential acquirers must assess the potential value they themselves can create while weighing the cost of missing out on opportunities. (Jinshi)
BIT: Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady, U.S. Stocks May Trend Higher Amid Volatility in September
According to an analysis by BIT official Chinese (@BITofficial_CN), US stocks historically tend to enter a consolidation phase in September, particularly ahead of midterm elections. Despite market concerns over a potential Federal Reserve rate hike next week, BIT anticipates that the Fed is more likely to keep interest rates unchanged, helping markets downplay the impact of short-term monetary policy and political uncertainties. The S&P 500 Index currently trades slightly above its 30-day moving average, and the overall uptrend remains intact, with trend-following funds continuing to maintain long exposure. Absent any major risk events, US stocks are still expected to trend higher amid fluctuations. While tensions surrounding Iran and oil price risks continue to unsettle markets, US equities as a whole display strong resilience.
BIT: Positive News Supports Bitcoin's July Seasonal Trend
BIT released a daily report stating that Bitcoin performed steadily in early July, continuing its historically relatively strong seasonal performance. US President Trump's statements, such as "the US is taking over cryptocurrency," boosted market sentiment, and investors' attention also turned to the CLARITY Act, which needs to make progress before the Senate enters summer recess on August 7.
Analysis: Pre-IPO Hype Spills Over into Prediction Markets, Pre-IPO Trading Becomes a New Trend
as anticipation builds for several potential major IPOs, "prediction market trading" centered around high-profile pre-IPO companies is rapidly heating up, with users betting on pre-IPO performance through prediction contracts.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become primary channels, allowing users to engage in "yes/no" contract trading on key metrics such as valuation ranges and listing timelines. Prices are quoted in cents, settling at $1 if the outcome is correct.Given that ordinary investors cannot directly participate in equity investments in popular private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI before their IPOs, prediction markets are converting related expectations into tradeable, event-driven assets.Analysts believe that as the window for potential "mega IPOs" approaches, prediction markets are leveraging public sentiment and capital attention to turn IPO narratives into short-term volatility opportunities on both on-chain and compliant trading platforms, further expanding their influence in financial speculation and information pricing. (The Information)
Deutsche Bank: Tech Stock Rotation Still Has Room, Positioning Not Yet at Previous Highs
According to Trend Research, Deutsche Bank's September 25, 2026 research report states that tech stocks have risen 14% since late July, while the rest of the S&P 500 has declined 3%. Tech stock positioning stands at the 80th percentile, down from a peak of 99 percentiles in early June. Overall large-cap positioning is at the 79th percentile, systematic strategies at 91 percentiles, and discretionary strategies at 64 percentiles. Equity funds saw $10.2 billion in outflows, marking the first instance in three months, with U.S. equity funds posting $21.2 billion in outflows. Bond funds recorded $17.3 billion in inflows.
Analysis: $1.56 Billion BTC Options Expiry Pauses Rally, XRP and SOL Rise Against the Trend
Odaily News: Bitcoin fell back to around $83,600 on Friday, down about 1% from the previous trading day, after briefly touching around $87,000, reaching that level for the first time in months. Market analysis suggests that the expiry of $1.56 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit may have exacerbated short-term volatility, as market makers typically unwind their hedging positions after options expiry.Over the past 24 hours, BTC open interest and trading volume fell by 14.39% and 13.68% respectively, with long and short liquidations relatively balanced—long liquidations totaled $161.96 million and short liquidations $156.1 million—indicating that leveraged funds are readjusting. On the technical side, BTC's 50-day moving average remains above its 200-day moving average, forming a "golden cross," and the short-term trend is still viewed as relatively strong.Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $299.09 million on Friday, though this was lower than the single-day inflow levels seen earlier in the week. By contrast, XRP rose 4.37% over the past 24 hours and 15.45% over the past 7 days, currently trading at around $1.58; Solana rose 3.36% over the past 24 hours and 9.33% over the past 7 days, currently trading at around $119.84. The next macro data points the market is watching are the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data due on September 30 and the September nonfarm payrolls report due on October 2. (Decrypt)
Analyst: Bitcoin rises above its annual average price for the first time since November 2025
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a post that Bitcoin rose to approximately $85,700, about 6.4% above its 365-day moving average of $80,500, marking the first breach of the moving average since November 2025. Meanwhile, the Trend Pulse indicator concluded a nine-day neutral phase and resumed a bullish pattern.
Analysis of Whale Garrett Jin's Real Capital Sources: Built Fortune by Buying the 2018 BTC Bottom, Accumulated Over $300 Million in Losses from Recent Trading Missteps
According to on-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN), the whale entity Garrett Jin sold all 35,000 ETH (approximately $87.5 million) withdrawn from Binance last night today at an average price of $2,500. The proceeds were used to add margin to their ZEC short position, which shows an unrealized loss of roughly $34 million, thereby substantially raising the liquidation price from $2,631 to $4,738. Ember also traced the entity's complete on-chain footprint: • Funding origin: Accumulated 100,784 BTC at an average price of ~$7,242 between May and June 2018; all subsequent operational capital was derived from BTC sales; • BTC to ETH conversion: Beginning in August 2025, over a six-month period, 89,000 BTC were sold at an average price of ~$114,000 to acquire 900,000 ETH at an average price of ~$4,300 (resulting in a cost basis above $3,500); these ETH tokens have been gradually transferred to Binance throughout the first half of 2026; • Largest liquidation on Hyperliquid: In February 2026, ETH dropped sharply from $3,000 to $1,800, leading to the liquidation of a $670 million ETH long position (213,000 ETH opened at $3,150), resulting in approximately $230 million in lost margin; • Trend Re
"Setting 10 Big Targets First": Bullish Trend Remains Unchanged
following the release of today's US CPI data, the whale "Setting 10 Big Targets First" posted on X platform stating that Bitcoin has not fallen below $74,000, and the bullish trend remains unchanged."Setting 10 Big Targets First" previously stated: "Next, I'll look for opportunities to re-enter long positions. This trend has come more fiercely than I originally imagined, so the imagination for what's ahead can be bolder too. Getting on board at $80,000 or even above $80,000, I think it's still not too late—there's still room. $100,000 will most likely arrive sooner than I originally expected. Once we hit $100,000, we can reassess just how far this trend can go."
Bonkguy: The Recent Robinhood and BNB Chain Movements May Just Be a Warm-Up, with the Real Trend Potentially Starting in Q4
Odaily Odaily News Trader Bonkguy (unipcs) posted on platform X, stating that for those who missed the recent moves on Robinhood and BNB Chain, these movements may only be a warm-up. This typically occurs in the early stages of a new bull market cycle, or right before the market is about to accelerate. The real trend may begin in the fourth quarter, and when compared to it, the recent movements may only appear as minor fluctuations.Many people missed recent opportunities because they are still affected by their bear market experiences. The defensive habits that protected investors during the bear market may hinder their ability to profit during a bull market. The key lies in recognizing changes in the market environment and adjusting one's mental framework accordingly. Pullbacks will certainly occur as the market develops, but in a genuine bull market, pullbacks are often opportunities to accumulate positions in high-conviction assets. Market volatility may intensify further, and future conditions may exceed what most people expect. Ultimately, those who profit the most may not be the ones trying to predict every single move in the coming days, but rather those who identify the market's direction, position themselves early, and give their judgment enough time to play out.
CoinShares: BTC Price Rebound Unlikely to Reverse, Miners Pivot to AI Trend
According to CoinShares’ Q2 Bitcoin Mining Report, even as Bitcoin prices continue to rebound, publicly listed miners that have already pivoted to AI infrastructure are highly unlikely to return to mining operations. The report indicates that AI infrastructure yields approximately $1.5 million in profit per megawatt, roughly triple that of Bitcoin mining (around $500,000), highlighting a stark economic disparity. Currently, at least 35 EH/s of hash rate (representing about 4.7% of the network’s total 750 EH/s) is slated to exit the publicly listed mining sector, with companies such as Core Scientific, IREN, Cipher Digital, and TeraWulf having sequentially announced either full exits or scaling back of mining operations. Given that some AI hosting agreements extend up to 15 years, this transformation is largely irreversible.
Serenity Strongly Backs AI Stock Guru Leopold: SK Hynix and Other Targets May See a "Reverse Jim Cramer" Trend
On the X platform, stock guru "White-Haired" Serenity posted that Jim Cramer recently advocated shorting SanDisk (SNDK), DRAM, and SK Hynix-related names favored by Leopold, while simultaneously labeling CrowdStrike (CRWD) a "must-buy." Serenity contended that AI capex beneficiaries favored by Leopold possess more compelling fundamentals, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix projected to command just a 2.8x to 3x forward P/E multiple for fiscal 2027. Samsung has secured long-term agreements extending to 2031 covering roughly 70% of its production capacity; SK Hynix operates with contractual price floors, while SanDisk is anticipated to achieve a 50% free cash flow margin and an 80% gross margin by 2030.
Goldman Sachs: Updated List of 23 Highest-Conviction Buys, Vertex Added, Interactive Brokers Removed
According to Trend Research, Goldman Sachs' September 1 research report indicated that the U.S. high-conviction list was updated this month; Vertex Pharmaceuticals was added, Interactive Brokers Group was removed, and the list remained at 23 stocks. All U.S. equity gains in August were concentrated in the first two trading days, after which the market entered a summer consolidation phase, with Nvidia's robust earnings failing to break the stalemate. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 9 basis points from the start of the month, Brent crude was essentially flat, while gold, silver, and bitcoin gained 9%, 22%, and 24%, respectively. Vertex was the standout performer this month. Goldman Sachs believes the company has five billion-dollar-plus commercial opportunities spanning cystic fibrosis, pain management, kidney disease, hematology, and the endocrine field following its proposed acquisition of Crinetics. Market expectations for peak sales of povetacicept in IgAN stand at $3.2 billion, significantly below Goldman Sachs' $5.8 billion estimate. Outperformers included Estée Lauder, which rose 5.3% in August, and DoorDash, up 18.1%. Following a strong second quarter, TPG raised its FRE expectations by approximately 10%. Viking Holdings and Applied Materials came under pressure amid overly elevated expectations. The list is constructed based on bottom-up fundamental analysis, covering six major sectors: consumer, financials, healthcare, industrials, resources, and technology.
HSBC: Starlink Users Surpass 12 Million as Space Race Boosts Earth-Based Industries in Three Ways
According to Trend Research, an HSBC report released on August 18 spanning 12 industries points out that SpaceX's Starlink has crossed the inflection point for scale. As of June 30, it operates 10,200 satellites in orbit and serves 12 million broadband subscribers across 167 markets. Additionally, 7.4 million monthly active devices connect directly to mobile phones via satellite (Direct to Cell), covering 30 countries. Maersk has installed Starlink on more than 330 container ships, while United Airlines plans to upgrade 15 Boeing 737-800 aircraft per month. Starship aims to reduce launch costs to $100–$300 per kilogram, representing a decline of over 95% compared to historical averages. HSBC assesses that the space race is now benefiting terrestrial industries across three dimensions: From a communications standpoint, Starlink and ground-based telecom operators are predominantly complementary, filling coverage gaps in oceanic, desert, and post-disaster environments. Regarding compute infrastructure, orbital data centers currently cost three times as much as ground-based equivalents, acting mainly as strategic reserves; however, if TeraFab’s vertically integrated wafer fabs succeed, they could revolutionize the division of labor in the semiconductor industry. At the energy level, AI data centers have pushed the annual growth rate of U.S. power demand to 4%-5%, making renewable energy and the electrical grid the largest beneficiaries. Among the 12 industries covered, power, semiconductors, and robotics are being directly transformed.
DeFi Overall Deposits Decline 15%, RWA Deposits Rise Against Trend to $7.4 Billion
According to BeInCrypto, a latest report jointly released by CoinShares and Token Terminal shows that over the past year (Q2 2025 to Q2 2026), the deposit volume of tokenized real-world assets (RWA) in the DeFi sector increased from $2.3 billion to $7.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of more than twofold, while total DeFi deposits declined by approximately 15% during the same period. The growth was primarily concentrated in yield-bearing products, including tokenized treasury bonds and multi-strategy funds (such as JTRSY, BUIDL, sUSDS), with Aave, Morpho, and Kamino providing the deepest liquidity. Meanwhile, on-chain RWA spot trading volume increased by approximately 220% year-on-year, while native crypto spot trading volume on decentralized exchanges fell by approximately 70%.
Wintermute Weekly Report: CPI Falls More Than Expected Amid Escalating Iran Tensions, BTC Closes Higher Against Trend to Become Week's Strongest Risk Asset
According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in a hold for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US restarted a naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87 per barrel, pressure for energy inflation to rebound is accumulating, casting doubt on the sustainability of this CPI decline. Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released the open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its worst weekly performance in 15 months, the Nasdaq dropped 4.16%, and Nvidia temporarily ceded the top spot in global market cap to Apple. The crypto market, however, strengthened against the trend, becoming the best-performing risk asset of the week. Within minutes of the CPI data release, BTC surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETF
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JPMorgan: Tech Valuations Fully Contracted, Semiconductors Outperform Software
According to Trend Research, a JPMorgan research report dated September 28, 2026 notes that the technology and AI ecosystem stagnated for three months from June through last week, though valuation downgrades have already become highly pronounced across most sectors. Forward earnings for semiconductors continue to climb by approximately 30%, while software has seen almost no earnings upgrades. Valuations for the Tech Seven Giants have fallen to ten-year lows, trading at nearly one standard deviation below the broader market. Capital expenditures by hyperscalers are projected to grow at a 28% compound annual growth rate through 2030. JPMorgan argues that with cleaner positioning, persistent earnings momentum, and an intact capital expenditure upcycle, it advises re-entering the technology sector and reopening a semiconductor-over-software pair trade. Agentic AI is pushing the CPU-to-GPU ratio from 1:4 to 1:8 toward 1:1, providing tailwinds for CPU-related names.
Fed's Barr Says Trend of Inflation Returning to 2% Is Unclear, Risks of Achieving Target Increase
Federal Reserve Governor Barr pointed out that there is currently no clear trend for inflation to return to the 2% target in a timely manner, and the risks of achieving that goal have increased.
Deutsche Bank: Tech Stock Rotation Still Has Room, Positioning Not Yet at Previous Highs
According to Trend Research, Deutsche Bank's September 25, 2026 research report states that tech stocks have risen 14% since late July, while the rest of the S&P 500 has declined 3%. Tech stock positioning stands at the 80th percentile, down from a peak of 99 percentiles in early June. Overall large-cap positioning is at the 79th percentile, systematic strategies at 91 percentiles, and discretionary strategies at 64 percentiles. Equity funds saw $10.2 billion in outflows, marking the first instance in three months, with U.S. equity funds posting $21.2 billion in outflows. Bond funds recorded $17.3 billion in inflows.
Analysis: $1.56 Billion BTC Options Expiry Pauses Rally, XRP and SOL Rise Against the Trend
Odaily News: Bitcoin fell back to around $83,600 on Friday, down about 1% from the previous trading day, after briefly touching around $87,000, reaching that level for the first time in months. Market analysis suggests that the expiry of $1.56 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit may have exacerbated short-term volatility, as market makers typically unwind their hedging positions after options expiry.Over the past 24 hours, BTC open interest and trading volume fell by 14.39% and 13.68% respectively, with long and short liquidations relatively balanced—long liquidations totaled $161.96 million and short liquidations $156.1 million—indicating that leveraged funds are readjusting. On the technical side, BTC's 50-day moving average remains above its 200-day moving average, forming a "golden cross," and the short-term trend is still viewed as relatively strong.Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $299.09 million on Friday, though this was lower than the single-day inflow levels seen earlier in the week. By contrast, XRP rose 4.37% over the past 24 hours and 15.45% over the past 7 days, currently trading at around $1.58; Solana rose 3.36% over the past 24 hours and 9.33% over the past 7 days, currently trading at around $119.84. The next macro data points the market is watching are the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data due on September 30 and the September nonfarm payrolls report due on October 2. (Decrypt)
Analyst: Bitcoin rises above its annual average price for the first time since November 2025
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in a post that Bitcoin rose to approximately $85,700, about 6.4% above its 365-day moving average of $80,500, marking the first breach of the moving average since November 2025. Meanwhile, the Trend Pulse indicator concluded a nine-day neutral phase and resumed a bullish pattern.
Analysis of Whale Garrett Jin's Real Capital Sources: Built Fortune by Buying the 2018 BTC Bottom, Accumulated Over $300 Million in Losses from Recent Trading Missteps
According to on-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN), the whale entity Garrett Jin sold all 35,000 ETH (approximately $87.5 million) withdrawn from Binance last night today at an average price of $2,500. The proceeds were used to add margin to their ZEC short position, which shows an unrealized loss of roughly $34 million, thereby substantially raising the liquidation price from $2,631 to $4,738. Ember also traced the entity's complete on-chain footprint: • Funding origin: Accumulated 100,784 BTC at an average price of ~$7,242 between May and June 2018; all subsequent operational capital was derived from BTC sales; • BTC to ETH conversion: Beginning in August 2025, over a six-month period, 89,000 BTC were sold at an average price of ~$114,000 to acquire 900,000 ETH at an average price of ~$4,300 (resulting in a cost basis above $3,500); these ETH tokens have been gradually transferred to Binance throughout the first half of 2026; • Largest liquidation on Hyperliquid: In February 2026, ETH dropped sharply from $3,000 to $1,800, leading to the liquidation of a $670 million ETH long position (213,000 ETH opened at $3,150), resulting in approximately $230 million in lost margin; • Trend Re