News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Bitcoin has been declining since October last year, with its current price hovering around half of its all-time high of $126,000, indicating the market remains in a deep bear phase. Multiple industry analysts believe the current pressure on Bitcoin stems primarily from three factors: the four-year cycle, macroeconomic inflationary pressures, and market leverage liquidations.Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that Bitcoin's long-standing "four-year cycle" continues to influence investor psychology. Historically, Bitcoin typically undergoes approximately three years of an upward cycle followed by a one-year correction period. Investors have developed cyclical expectations and began reducing some long-term holdings towards the end of 2025.Additionally, the macroeconomic environment is a significant drag on Bitcoin. Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, pointed out that rising inflationary pressures in the US have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts. Investors are shifting towards higher-yielding traditional assets, leading to capital outflows from risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The short-term bottom is estimated to be around $58,000, with future trends still influenced by interest rate policies, corporate Bitcoin buying behavior, and progress in US crypto regulatory legislation.Excessive market leverage has also exacerbated this correction. As a large number of investors expanded their Bitcoin exposure through borrowing and financing during the bull market, derivatives open interest has declined as the market weakened. Digital asset treasury companies have also come under pressure. Strategy's stock price has fallen approximately 75% since October last year, and its previously promoted model of corporate Bitcoin accumulation is facing renewed market scrutiny.However, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects. Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares, predicts that Bitcoin may bottom out this summer, rebound after interest rates shift towards easing and geopolitical conflicts ease, with a year-end price target of $100,000. (Fortune)
During the week ended July 12, Strategy sold approximately 4.82 million shares of MSTR stock through an ATM (at-the-market) program, raising net proceeds of approximately $466.7 million. During the same period, Strategy did not make any Bitcoin purchases, with holdings remaining unchanged at 843,775 BTC.
Standard Chartered stated that it maintains its Bitcoin price prediction of reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026, believing that the recent market decline triggered by Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) related activities is not due to a deterioration in the company's balance sheet, but rather a strategic adjustment that the market has not fully understood.Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, noted in a report that Strategy's recent behavior is disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market had previously accepted the company's narrative of "never selling Bitcoin," but now Strategy appears to be shifting towards a more complex capital operation model. How clearly the company can communicate this change will determine when market pressure eases.Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, representing approximately over 4% of the total 21 million Bitcoin supply. From 2020 to mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (Market Value of Enterprise / Bitcoin Asset Value) was consistently above 1, allowing the company to raise funds through stock issuances to purchase Bitcoin and achieve shareholder value growth. The commitment to "never selling Bitcoin" was central to this model gaining market acceptance. However, with the current mNAV approaching 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is weakening.Kendrick believes Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation tool" to a "Bitcoin credit support tool." This involves using its Bitcoin holdings as the credit basis for its perpetual preferred stock, STRC. Currently sized at approximately $10 billion, STRC is the largest financial instrument launched by Strategy, offering an annualized dividend rate of 12%, paid semi-monthly in cash, and is designed to maintain a price near its $100 par value through interest rate adjustment mechanisms.Standard Chartered indicated that STRC is currently trading around $90, while Strategy's dollar reserve for paying dividends stands at approximately $2.55 billion, covering an estimated 17.4 months of dividend expenses.Kendrick stated that Strategy's policy adjustment allowing for Bitcoin sales does not necessarily mean the company will continuously sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize the STRC price, Strategy may not actually need to sell Bitcoin. He compared this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "do whatever it takes": mere restoration of market confidence may mean actual intervention never occurs. (The Block)
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although Strategy's Bitcoin selling plan has triggered market attention, it is not the core risk facing Bitcoin. The real structural threat lies in the fact that blockchain applications such as tokenization, payments, and settlements are increasingly occurring on permissioned chains (Permissioned Blockchain), rather than on public chains such as Ethereum. If this trend continues, the public chain ecosystem will face issues such as declining liquidity and weakened capital inflows, ultimately dragging down Bitcoin valuations. The analysts also warned that the proliferation of bank-built blockchain infrastructure and tokenized deposits could undermine the position of stablecoins in institutional payments; regulated alternatives such as SWIFT's blockchain plan, the digital euro, and the digital yuan also constitute competitive pressure. However, the analysts also pointed out that if hybrid public-private chain models emerge, stablecoin regulation becomes clearer, or Bitcoin continues to be held as "digital gold", the aforementioned risks may be mitigated.
Grayscale Research stated that Strategy sold a portion of Bitcoin last week, which may help reduce financing risk and support Bitcoin price stability. This sale of approximately $216 million increased its USD reserves, expected to cover dividend payment needs for approximately 17 months. Meanwhile, the STRC price rebounded, indicating investors reacted relatively positively to this decision.
Wall Street investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald stated that the key to Strategy restarting its capital expansion cycle lies in restoring its preferred stock STRC back to the $100 par value level. The bank pointed out that repairing the STRC price is a core prerequisite for restarting the company's Bitcoin accumulation "capital engine" and will help stabilize the overall capital structure.After a meeting with Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Cantor Fitzgerald expressed increased confidence in management's plans to stabilize the balance sheet and restore financing capabilities. In the current market, STRC is trading at approximately $87.79, Strategy's stock price fell 3.4% to $97.34, while Bitcoin is trading around $61,800.Cantor believes that STRC is the foundational tool of Strategy's financing system, and its repair will drive benefits for both preferred and common shares, further enhancing the company's ability to continue accumulating Bitcoin. Currently, Strategy has raised approximately $216 million through Bitcoin sales to fund preferred stock dividends and is expected to continue increasing its cash reserves to support dividend stability. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Odaily News, Galaxy Research Head Alex Thorn stated that the capital management reforms recently launched by Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) have effectively eased market concerns over its liquidity and preferred stock system pressure in the short term. However, he noted these measures are more about "buying time" rather than fundamentally resolving structural issues.Over the past few weeks, Strategy has faced pressure on its "Digital Credit" preferred stock system. Its STRC ("Stretch" preferred shares) fell below par value, hitting a low of approximately $71.25, raising market concerns about Bitcoin price declines, shrinking dollar reserves, and the company's ability to pay preferred stock dividends. Subsequently, market discussions focused on three stress scenarios: selling Bitcoin, issuing additional MSTR shares (diluting existing shareholders), or cutting/suspending preferred stock dividends.In response, Strategy announced a comprehensive capital management restructuring on Monday, introducing a "Digital Credit Capital Framework." This includes five key tools: a board-approved dollar reserve policy, an adjustment to the STRC dividend mechanism, a $1 billion preferred stock buyback authorization, a $1 billion MSTR common stock buyback authorization, and a Bitcoin monetization mechanism. Concurrently, the company increased the annualized dividend rate on STRC from 11.5% to 12%.The market reacted positively, with both MSTR and STRC seeing significant gains that day, and Bitcoin also rebounded alongside.Alex Thorn pointed out that this adjustment has improved market sentiment in the short term, extending Strategy's cash coverage cycle to approximately 17 months and enhancing its capital buffer through new financing. However, the company still faces approximately $6.7 billion in convertible bond maturities during 2027-2028, meaning long-term structural risks persist. The core issue is not whether Strategy holds enough Bitcoin (approximately 847,000 BTC), but rather that its dollar liquidity is insufficient to cover preferred stock and capital structure obligations without harming the interests of any party, leading to a squeeze between different classes of shareholders.Nonetheless, the key significance of this adjustment lies in enhancing the "optionality" of the company's capital tools. It shifts Strategy from a single-direction Bitcoin accumulation strategy towards a more proactive asset-liability management model, thereby preventing short-term liquidity issues from evolving into a systemic crisis. Although the current Bitcoin market environment is relatively weak and may not have bottomed out yet, Strategy's new framework has, to some extent, bought the company a window of time to wait for more favorable market conditions.
According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan released a research report stating that the financing model reform of Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. has changed Bitcoin market dynamics—the company selectively sells Bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends and manage its balance sheet, transforming it from one of the largest buyers in the Bitcoin market to a potential seller, introducing "avoidable" two-way flow risk to the market. JPMorgan believes that Strategy needs to hold liquidity reserves sufficient to cover dividend payments for the next two to three years to eliminate market concerns about the forced liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings.
global private market investment management giant Hamilton Lane has announced that its direct equity strategy fund, Hamilton Lane Equity Opportunities Fund VI (EO VI), has completed a $3.8 billion fundraise. This amount exceeds the $2.1 billion raised for the previous fund. Participating investors include a diverse range of institutions such as public pensions, sovereign wealth funds, union pensions, endowments, foundations, and family offices. The fund will provide investors with diversified investment exposure.Hamilton Lane already has a presence in the crypto space. In March of this year, it made a strategic investment in the on-chain investment platform Republic. Additionally, its senior credit opportunity securitization fund, HLSCOPE, has approximately $9 million in total asset value on the Polygon network, primarily investing in senior secured private credit and senior secured loans in North America and Europe. (Bloomberg)
: UK investment advisor Farside Investors stated that Strategy's STRC preferred product carries structural risks related to adjustable coupon rates and price stabilization mechanisms. STRC is primarily issued at around $100, with a mechanism designed to increase dividends when the price falls below $100 and decrease dividends when the price rises above $100, in order to guide the market price back to that level. Farside Investors noted that if investor concerns over Strategy's credit risk intensify, the STRC price could decline. Raising dividends to support the price would increase cash pressure and further undermine investor confidence in the security's valuation. STRC recently traded at around $75 before rebounding to $86. Strategy has launched the Digital Credit Capital Framework, which plans to establish a U.S. dollar reserve, raise STRC dividends to 12%, repurchase preferred securities at a discount, and authorize the sale of Bitcoin to help cover dividend payments and reserve funding.
Odaily Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has lowered its price target for Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (STRC) from $400 to $260, a reduction of approximately 35%, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. The firm noted that the company's newly launched digital credit capital framework is constructive, with continuous improvements in credit transparency and capital flexibility.Analysts explained that this valuation adjustment is unrelated to the new capital framework, but is primarily driven by lowered Bitcoin price expectations: the BTC price forecast for end-2026 has been reduced from $140,000 to $100,000, and the end-2027 forecast from $190,000 to $135,000. Even after the adjustment, the $260 price target still implies over 200% upside from the closing price of $92.68. The investment bank also acknowledged that this valuation differential appears relatively high.On the capital front, Strategy has rebuilt $2.55 billion in USD reserves. Last week's issuance of 12 million common shares was not used to increase Bitcoin holdings. Existing cash can cover more than 17 months of interest and preferred stock dividends, and combined with BTC monetization capacity, can cover 26 months of expenses. The company has received approval for $1 billion in common stock buybacks and $1 billion in preferred stock buybacks, marking a shift from one-way equity issuance to proactive capital structure optimization. The $1.25 billion in Bitcoin monetization proceeds will replenish cash reserves, while the preferred stock dividend rate has been raised from 11.5% to 12%, alleviating the previously significant 26% discount issue. (TheBlock)
According to Bits.media, Fidan Tofidi, Director of the Financial Technology and Innovation Department of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, stated that the country's Virtual Asset Market Regulation Bill has been drafted and submitted for deliberation, and is expected to be formally enacted within the year. The bill requires all companies engaged in crypto asset business to obtain a license issued by the central bank, prohibits unauthorized operations within the territory, and subjects licensed institutions to ongoing supervision. The regulatory framework will cover compliance requirements such as anti-money laundering, counter-terrorist financing, and customer identification (KYC), and will be incorporated into Azerbaijan's 2027—2030 Financial Market Development Strategy.
On-chain analyst Ember posted on X platform, stating that Strategy currently has $2.55 billion in dollar reserves, which can support interest payments for one and a half years. Strategy may sell some BTC at any time soon, raising up to $1.25 billion to replenish dollar reserves, which equates to approximately 20,600 BTC at current prices. Strategy may also conduct share buybacks of up to $1 billion.
Michael Saylor stated in a post on platform X that Strategy ($MSTR) will maintain discipline when using stock offerings for financing, especially when the stock price is near or at 1x Market Net Asset Value (mNAV). He emphasized that Strategy will not overly rely on equity financing when valuations are weak or close to net asset value, in order to avoid unnecessary dilution of its shareholder structure and to maintain the robustness of its long-term capital operations.
According to the 8-K filing submitted by Strategy to the U.S. SEC, it did not purchase bitcoin from June 22 to 28, 2026. As of June 28, the company cumulatively held 847,363 bitcoins, with a total cost of approximately $64.1 billion and an average holding price of approximately $75,651. During the same period, the company sold MSTR common stock through the ATM program, net raising approximately $1.152 billion.
According to market sources: Bitcoin treasury company Strategy has announced a new capital framework, including a $1 billion digital credit security repurchase plan to optimize its capital structure. Meanwhile, the company's board of directors has approved a Bitcoin monetization plan, aiming to raise up to $1.25 billion through related operations to bolster its dollar reserves. As of June 28, Strategy's dollar reserves stood at approximately $2.55 billion. It is reported that the new capital arrangements are designed to enhance liquidity management capabilities and improve the overall flexibility and risk resilience of the balance sheet.
According to data shared by Michael Saylor, as of June 28, 2026, Strategy holds 847,363 Bitcoin worth approximately $50.9 billion, with an average purchase price of $75,653 per coin from 113 buys.The StrategyTracker chart shows that Strategy has been continuously accumulating Bitcoin from 2024 to 2025, with Saylor also indicating an intention to continue buying. Strategy's stock price has declined recently, drawing market attention to its financing model and dividend obligations; Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has criticized this, while its dollar reserves are reportedly sufficient to cover approximately 10 months of dividend payments. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Strategy's enterprise valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its enterprise value to net asset multiple (mNAV) dropping below 1 for the first time, signaling a shift in the market's valuation logic for the company.Data shows that Strategy's current stock price is approximately $82, down about 85% from its all-time high in November 2024. Its enterprise value stands at around $50.4 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $51.1 billion (calculated at roughly $60,000 per Bitcoin). This means the market currently values the entire company at less than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.For a long time, the market valued Strategy significantly higher than its Bitcoin reserve, allowing the company to raise capital at a premium and continuously accumulate more Bitcoin. This model has been considered a key foundation of Michael Saylor's capital strategy. However, with the mNAV now below 1, raising capital through new equity issuance could potentially have a dilutive effect on existing shareholders.Analysts point out that this change makes Strategy's valuation structure more akin to a "closed-end fund," similar to the discount trading state observed in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during different market cycles. Such structures typically lack effective arbitrage mechanisms, making it difficult for discounts or premiums to correct quickly.However, unlike traditional closed-end funds, Strategy still possesses a variety of capital instruments, including debt financing, equity financing, software business cash flow, and capital structure management. In theory, this provides a degree of flexibility to navigate market volatility. (CoinDesk)
Odaily Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in a recent CNBC interview that he remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, while strongly criticizing Michael Saylor and his strategy of continuously purchasing Bitcoin by financing through preferred stock, arguing that this "financial engineering" approach is negatively impacting the crypto market.Garlinghouse pointed out that Strategy's reliance on issuing preferred stock (such as STRC) to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases essentially acts as a distraction in the market rather than creating long-term value. He emphasized: "Financial engineering does not create long-term value; the long-term value of digital assets comes from real utility." He specifically noted that STRC's stock price has fallen to a discount of approximately 25% from its par value, which he described as a "strong vote of no confidence" in that financing structure. Against the backdrop of market pressure this week, Strategy's common stock hit its lowest level since February 2024, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $59,000.On the market front, a CryptoQuant report indicated that if the dividend structure continues, Strategy's cash buffer has decreased from over seven years to approximately 14 months, suggesting a pause in Bitcoin purchases and a rebuilding of reserve funds. Currently, STRC trading below $100 has also rendered its "issue tokens—buy Bitcoin" funding flywheel temporarily ineffective. However, Benchmark-StoneX analyst Mark Palmer believes this model reflects more of a "decline in efficiency" rather than a systemic breakdown. Meanwhile, Ripple continues to adopt an industry-contrarian perspective, reiterating the distinct value path of its ecosystem asset XRP compared to Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)
As of the close on June 26, Strategy’s official mNAV declined to 0.99, indicating that the market’s overall valuation of the company has fallen below the market value of its held Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the perpetual preferred stock STRC trades at approximately a 25% discount to its $100 liquidation value.