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UBS: S&P 500 P/E Ratio Down 17%, Fed's Path Determines Future Market Outlook
According to Chaoxiang Research, in a research report dated September 28, 2026, UBS noted that the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has declined 17% from its November high last year, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has increased by approximately 100 basis points year-to-date to 5.2%, placing it roughly 80 basis points above its one-year moving average. Over the past four decades, the 10-year US Treasury yield has exceeded 1.5 standard deviations only seven times. Current market pricing implies that the Federal Reserve will implement rate hikes totaling approximately 88 basis points over the next year, falling just short of the 100-basis-point threshold. UBS maintains that the Fed's path of rate hikes will determine the direction of equity markets. Historical precedent indicates that when rate hikes surpass 100 basis points within a year, the S&P 500 yields negative returns after twelve months; conversely, following moderate rate hikes, the index averages a 17.7% gain over the same period. Current pricing more closely mirrors a moderate tightening scenario. The valuation model suggests an implied upside potential of roughly 21% for the S&P 500. In terms of asset allocation, investors are advised to focus on high-growth, low-valuation sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, refining, and diversified banks.
UBS: SK Hynix 1.66x P/B Ratio Implies ROE Less Than 20%, Actually Can Earn 40%
According to TechFlow Research, UBS pointed out in its research report on July 29 that SK Hynix's stock price has fallen 52% from its high on June 22, with a current price-to-book ratio of only 1.66x, implying a long-term ROE of 18.9%. However, UBS predicts the average ROE from 2027 to 2031 will reach 40.2%, a difference of 21 percentage points between the two. DRAM bit demand growth is expected to increase from 22% in 2026 to 36% in 2027, HBM capacity will increase from 230,000 wafers/month at the end of 2026 to 270,000 wafers/month at the end of 2027, and SK Hynix will maintain a 48% shipment share in the HBM industry in 2026. UBS believes the market valuation downward revision lacks basis, AI agents are driving accelerated memory demand, 10 long-term agreements have been signed, and although LTAs suppress ASP in the short term, they benefit profit margins in the long term. UBS maintains a Buy rating, lowering the target price from 3.2 million Korean won to 3 million Korean won, expects to launch a share buyback of about 12 trillion Korean won in the second half of 2026, and will use 50% of free cash flow for shareholder returns in the long term.
Grayscale: HYPE Still Undervalued, Forward P/E Ratio Approximately 15 to 18 Times
Grayscale stated HYPE's forward P/E ratio is approximately 15 to 18 times. Hyperliquid possesses real cash flow and can therefore be valued like a stock, but the valuation is based on earnings per token rather than earnings per share. Based on this, compared with fintech peers such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle, HYPE still appears inexpensive. Market data shows that HYPE is currently trading at $55.32, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours.
Analyst: Current active BTC investors under 20% loss on average, cyclical adjustment still ongoing
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.
Tom Lee: Ethereum May See Multiple Bullish Catalysts, ETH/BTC Ratio Hits Highest Since Late January
Odaily reports: Tom Lee, Chairman of Ethereum treasury company Bitmine, stated that ETH has multiple bullish catalysts in the coming months, laying the foundation for an expected surge in institutional buying of cryptocurrencies in the final months of 2026. These include the scheduled CLARITY Act vote in mid-September, South Korean investors re-entering crypto assets and rotating from AI stocks into the crypto market, and the "four-year cycle" pattern.Tom Lee further noted that the ETH/BTC ratio has risen to its highest level since January 30 of this year, breaking above the trendline formed since the pandemic-era peak and establishing a new uptrend. This reflects Ethereum's strengthening position as settlement infrastructure for Wall Street asset tokenization, while the market is increasingly recognizing that Ethereum may play a key role in the Agentic AI space. (PRNewswire)
“New Stock God” Serenity: AAOI, SIVE, Foci, and Shunsin Are the 4 Stocks with the Best Risk-Reward Ratio at Current Levels
“New Stock God” Serenity shared on platform X his top 4 most favored stocks currently: AAOI, SIVE, Foci, and Shunsin, stating that at their current market capitalizations, these targets offer the best risk-reward ratio.He indicated that AAOI benefits from capacity expansion in 2027 and growing demand for silicon photonics; SIVE’s photonics business revenue pipeline is growing rapidly with high profit margins; Foci is a key participant in the NVIDIA and TSMC FAU supply chain; and Shunsin is deeply involved in the CPO and photonics packaging business undertaken by Foxconn, yet its related value has not been fully priced in by the market.Additionally, Serenity listed XFAB as a “runner-up” target, believing it stands to benefit from the EU's Chips Act 2 and the development of the silicon photonics industry.
Greeks.live: Today, 25,000 BTC options and 274,000 ETH options expire.
According to analyst [email protected] (@BTC__options), the options expiry data for May 15 is as follows: For BTC, 25,000 contracts expired, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.59, a maximum pain point at $80,000, and a notional value of $2 billion. For ETH, 274,000 contracts expired, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.4, a maximum pain point at $2,300, and a notional value of $620 million. This week, Bitcoin traded sideways near $80,000, exhibiting clear technical support; market attention remained low, with only 6% of BTC options expiring, versus 11% for ETH. BTC’s key-term implied volatility (IV) stood at approximately 35%, while ETH’s was around 50%. Skew has fluctuated minimally over the past month, reflecting neutral directional sentiment, and options activity remains extremely low—approximately 20% of open interest is expected to remain by end-May and roughly 30% by end-June. Overall, Bitcoin performed relatively well in both price and market热度 during Q2 2024, supported by favorable legal, regulatory, and macroeconomic developments. However, market热度 still falls short of expectations. Against this long-term bullish backdrop, Bitcoin remains the primary trading instrument, and positioning in medium-to-long-dated options is widely viewed as a reasonable strategy.
Analysts: Short-term Bitcoin holders' realized profit margin returns to profitable territory as bullish signals strengthen.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted on the X platform that the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has recently undergone a noteworthy change. This metric measures profit realization among short-term holders whose holding period is less than six months, and it has now risen above 1 to approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered profitable territory.
Analysts: Stablecoin 113-Day Net Outflow Period Ends, Demand Recovery Still Awaits Confirmation
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the phase of 113 consecutive days of stablecoin net outflows has ended, with market liquidity showing signs of stabilization. However, positive stablecoin net inflows contracted by 51% over two days, while all three Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) oscillator indicators remain above the zero line. While liquidity has stabilized for now, whether market demand has truly returned still requires further confirmation.
Arthur Hayes: ETH/BTC Ratio Hits Bottom and Rebounds, Ethereum May See Capital Inflow
According to Cointelegraph, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) recently expressed a bullish view on Ethereum, noting that ETH had previously suffered massive market sell-offs and was almost "forgotten," but its ratio against Bitcoin has recently rebounded significantly, which he sees as a signal of the market waking up again.
Greeks.live：今日 3.2 万张 BTC 期权和 17.7 万张 ETH 期权到期
据期权分析师 [email protected]（@BTC__options）发布的 8月 7 日期权交割数据，3.2 万张 BTC 期权到期，Put Call Ratio 仅为 0.26，最大痛点 64,000 美元，名义价值 20.6 亿美元；17.7 万张 ETH 期权到期，Put Call Ratio 为0.77，最大痛点 1,900 美元，名义价值 3.4 亿美元。 比特币自 5 月以来持续在 64K 附近震荡逾两个月，65K 上方为年初上涨成交密集区，当前热点不在加密领域，投机资金难以流入，方向或偏向下行。加密货币市场已历经 9 个月熊市，整体隐含波动率（IV）维持低位已逾一季度，若 Q3 仍无增量资金流入，市场存在潜在较大风险暴露的隐忧。
Analyst: Binance Bitcoin Whale Inflow Proportion Hits Four-Month High, Market Selling Pressure May Temporarily Increase
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that while Bitcoin continues to oscillate within the $60,000 to $65,000 range, the Binance Whale Inflow Ratio has risen to 0.52, hitting a new high in nearly four months. The rise in this indicator suggests that compared to retail and small-to-medium traders, whales have recently transferred more Bitcoin to Binance, implying that potential selling pressure in the market has increased.
Greeks.live: 149,000 BTC options, with a notional value of $9.6 billion, expire today
Odaily News [email protected] posted on the X platform that the options settlement data for July 31 shows that 149,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.28, the max pain point at $64,000, and a notional value of $9.6 billion; 435,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.63, the max pain point at $1,850, and a notional value of $830 million. Bitcoin fluctuated around $64,000 this week. As mentioned last week, the price range above $65,000 is a high-volume area formed during the early-year rally, and there is some resistance there.The U.S. stock market was quite volatile this week, but when U.S. stocks fell, funds did not flow into the crypto market, and the rebound did not drive the crypto market up either. Currently, capital inflows into crypto are limited, with trading volumes of some crypto-related U.S. stock products even surpassing many crypto assets, so conditions for an upward move are not in place. Looking at the main options data, 30% of options expired this week. On the call side, Gex is relatively dispersed, while on the put side, Gex is relatively concentrated. This month, BTC's PCR is only 0.26, with extremely low put open interest, while Ethereum's put open interest has remained relatively high.Overall IV has remained at a relatively low level for a quarter now. In Q3, we can observe rebounds when capital inflows occur. Crypto has been in an 8-month bear market, and trading attention in U.S. stocks has taken the lead. In the short term, some options can be sold, with the main trading focus placed on U.S. stocks.
KITE to Migrate Token Contracts at 1:1 Ratio, Attacker Addresses Excluded
Odaily News: The KITE Foundation has provided an update on the handling of a token security incident. A new KITE ERC-20 contract has been deployed on the Ethereum mainnet, with the total token supply remaining unchanged. Old KITE tokens will be migrated to the new contract at a 1:1 ratio. Addresses confirmed to be controlled by the attacker will be excluded and will not receive new tokens.The migration snapshot is based on Ethereum mainnet block height 25,692,498. Regular self-custody wallet users will receive the new tokens directly without needing to redeem or authorize anything. Exchange users will have their migration coordinated between the exchange and the KITE team. Cross-chain channels will remain paused until migration and verification are complete.Previously, KITE detected abnormal transfers on August 6 and confirmed it had been attacked by hackers. The team stated that this incident did not result in any asset losses for users or the project, and the impact is currently under control.
Santiment: BTC Social Sentiment Bullish Ratio Hits Four-Month High
According to on-chain data platform Santiment (@SantimentData), as Bitcoin’s price reclaimed the $80,000 level, the ratio of bullish-to-bearish comments on social media rose to 1.37:1.00—the highest in nearly four months—signaling a notable surge in market optimism. However, Santiment cautions that historically, sharp increases in bullish sentiment often serve as warning signs rather than buy signals. When retail FOMO dominates social media discussions, traders tend to enter positions late in the trend, raising the likelihood of local tops, profit-taking, and sudden price volatility. Santiment notes that peak market euphoria frequently coincides with the onset of waning momentum. By comparison, following the Kelp DAO vulnerability incident in mid-April, social sentiment plunged into deeply bearish territory; the exit of “weak-handed investors” instead laid a healthier foundation for the current rally. With sentiment now having reversed dramatically, Santiment advises traders to remain vigilant against potential risks stemming from excessive leverage and overly concentrated positions.
Paid Launches New Claim System, PAID Buyback Fee Ratio Raised to 25%
Solana ecosystem project Paid has announced that its new claim system is now live. The fee distribution has been adjusted from 80% to recipients and 20% for PAID buybacks, to 65% to recipients, 25% for PAID buybacks, and 10% retained by the protocol.
Bitget Releases Issue No. 47 Proof of Reserves, Overall Reserve Ratio Across 19 Asset Types Reaches 131%
According to official announcements, Bitget has released its 47th Proof of Reserves (PoR). The total reserve ratio stands at 131%, covering 19 asset types. Specifically, the reserve ratios for BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC are 142%, 110%, 107%, and 154%, respectively. Since December 2022, Bitget has updated its Proof of Reserves on a monthly basis. In September this year, it expanded its coverage from 4 asset types to 19, providing users with broader visibility into platform reserves. Bitget's historical average reserve ratio has remained above 120%, exceeding the 100% coverage benchmark and fully covering insured user assets.
Neutrl Opens NUSD and sNUSD Redemptions, to Be Converted to USDC at a Fixed Ratio
Odaily Reports: Neutrl announced on X that NUSD and sNUSD redemptions are now open, and holders can submit applications through the official redemption portal. According to the redemption plan, NUSD and sNUSD will be redeemed at a fixed ratio determined based on the liquid reserves previously disclosed by Neutrl. After completing the redemption, users will receive USDC, and the corresponding NUSD or sNUSD will be burned.The redemption plan is expected to remain open until November 14, 2026. Users need to connect a wallet holding the relevant assets and sign an on-chain message to verify ownership. Specific redemption information will be displayed before the application is submitted.Previously, Neutrl stated that in order to meet users' liquidity needs, it planned to open an early redemption mechanism for NUSD and sNUSD holders, expected to launch in early September.
Lido Adjusts EarnETH Fee Structure: Management Fee Cut 80% with Shift Toward Higher Performance Fee Ratio
Odaily News - Liquid staking protocol Lido has announced an update to the EarnETH Vault fee structure, adopting a more flexible performance-linked fee model to reduce holding costs for users and strengthen the alignment between yield distribution and product performance.Under the new structure, EarnETH fees will shift from the previous "1% AUM fee + 10% performance fee" to a maximum of "0.5% AUM + 20% performance fee" model. The new fee structure will launch with "0.2% AUM + 15% performance fee," with any future adjustments to be announced separately.Lido stated that reducing the management fee from 1% to 0.2% will lower the cost of holding EarnETH for users in low-yield environments, while the increased performance fee ratio will better tie protocol revenue to the Vault's actual performance. All currently effective fees will be transparently displayed on the EarnETH Vault interface.This adjustment aims to optimize the fee mechanism of the EarnETH yield product, enhance fee flexibility, and strengthen alignment between users and the product's yield performance.
KITE to Migrate Token Contracts at 1:1 Ratio, Attacker Addresses Excluded
Odaily News: The KITE Foundation has provided an update on the handling of a token security incident. A new KITE ERC-20 contract has been deployed on the Ethereum mainnet, with the total token supply remaining unchanged. Old KITE tokens will be migrated to the new contract at a 1:1 ratio. Addresses confirmed to be controlled by the attacker will be excluded and will not receive new tokens.The migration snapshot is based on Ethereum mainnet block height 25,692,498. Regular self-custody wallet users will receive the new tokens directly without needing to redeem or authorize anything. Exchange users will have their migration coordinated between the exchange and the KITE team. Cross-chain channels will remain paused until migration and verification are complete.Previously, KITE detected abnormal transfers on August 6 and confirmed it had been attacked by hackers. The team stated that this incident did not result in any asset losses for users or the project, and the impact is currently under control.
Strategy upgrades STRC and other preferred share control panels, adding risk assessment metrics such as Sharpe Ratio.
According to a post by MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy has upgraded the dashboard for four preferred stock products: STRC, STRD, STRK, and STRF, adding metrics such as Bitcoin rating, after-tax effective yield, and one-year Sharpe ratio. These new tools can be used to evaluate the yield levels, credit quality, downside protection, and risk-adjusted returns of the relevant products.
Related news
Strive Executive: If BTC/Gold Ratio Returns to Historical High, Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings Could Be Worth $161.8 Billion
Odaily News: Adam Livingston, Vice President of Investment at Bitcoin treasury company Strive, stated that if the price of gold rises 15% to $4,760 per ounce, and the BTC/gold ratio recovers from the current approximately 20.4 ounces to the historical high of approximately 40.1 ounces reached in December 2024, the corresponding Bitcoin price would be approximately $190,858.Based on this calculation, Strategy's current holdings of 847,666 BTC would be worth approximately $161.8 billion. The cumulative cost of its holdings is approximately $63.95 billion, with an average purchase price of approximately $75,437, corresponding to an unrealized gain of approximately $98 billion. (Bitcoin.com News)
This week, the total notional value of expiring BTC and ETH options is $2.95 billion
Adam, a researcher at Greeks.live, posted on X that on October 2, 30,500 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.07, a max pain point of $82,000, and a notional value of $2.63 billion; 116,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.17, a max pain point of $2,660, and a notional value of $320 million. On the first weekly expiry day after the quarterly delivery, the BTC price rebounded significantly on the delivery day, block trades in call options were active, and BTC has been fluctuating around $85,000 for more than a week.Adam said that this week, implied volatility across major tenors declined compared with last week and rebounded compared with two weeks ago, and is currently at a low since the start of this bull market; the trend in monthly realized volatility was similar, and the volatility risk premium across major tenors all declined. The peak Gex is at and above $90,000, and Gex in the downside direction has become dispersed again. After cryptocurrency experienced a 10-month bear market, this cycle has already seen a small bull market lasting more than a month, and it is currently in a sideways correction phase, with market sentiment having improved somewhat.
Paid Launches New Claim System, PAID Buyback Fee Ratio Raised to 25%
Solana ecosystem project Paid has announced that its new claim system is now live. The fee distribution has been adjusted from 80% to recipients and 20% for PAID buybacks, to 65% to recipients, 25% for PAID buybacks, and 10% retained by the protocol.
Bitget Releases Issue No. 47 Proof of Reserves, Overall Reserve Ratio Across 19 Asset Types Reaches 131%
According to official announcements, Bitget has released its 47th Proof of Reserves (PoR). The total reserve ratio stands at 131%, covering 19 asset types. Specifically, the reserve ratios for BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC are 142%, 110%, 107%, and 154%, respectively. Since December 2022, Bitget has updated its Proof of Reserves on a monthly basis. In September this year, it expanded its coverage from 4 asset types to 19, providing users with broader visibility into platform reserves. Bitget's historical average reserve ratio has remained above 120%, exceeding the 100% coverage benchmark and fully covering insured user assets.
Strive CEO: Amplification Ratio Determines Bitcoin Treasury Company Total Returns, Targeting 60%+ Within the Year
Matt Cole, CEO of Bitcoin treasury company Strive, stated in a post that in Bitcoin treasury strategies, the "amplification ratio" is the most important factor driving total returns. His model shows that over 99% of total return variation is determined by the amplification ratio, while the impact of cost of capital is far lower than commonly perceived by the market.Cole stated that Strive's goal is to outperform Bitcoin by maximizing total returns for common shareholders, with its base case projecting Bitcoin's annualized compound growth rate at approximately 50% through 2030. Cole said he hopes to raise Strive's amplification ratio above 60% later this year, but if warrants are exercised in the coming weeks or Bitcoin rises further, achieving that target will become more challenging.
UBS: S&P 500 P/E Ratio Down 17%, Fed's Path Determines Future Market Outlook
According to Chaoxiang Research, in a research report dated September 28, 2026, UBS noted that the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has declined 17% from its November high last year, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has increased by approximately 100 basis points year-to-date to 5.2%, placing it roughly 80 basis points above its one-year moving average. Over the past four decades, the 10-year US Treasury yield has exceeded 1.5 standard deviations only seven times. Current market pricing implies that the Federal Reserve will implement rate hikes totaling approximately 88 basis points over the next year, falling just short of the 100-basis-point threshold. UBS maintains that the Fed's path of rate hikes will determine the direction of equity markets. Historical precedent indicates that when rate hikes surpass 100 basis points within a year, the S&P 500 yields negative returns after twelve months; conversely, following moderate rate hikes, the index averages a 17.7% gain over the same period. Current pricing more closely mirrors a moderate tightening scenario. The valuation model suggests an implied upside potential of roughly 21% for the S&P 500. In terms of asset allocation, investors are advised to focus on high-growth, low-valuation sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, refining, and diversified banks.