News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of "SpaceX raising $70B-$80B in its IPO" on Polymarket is now at 88%, up 20% intraday.The market settles based on the total funds raised at the time of SpaceX's IPO pricing, according to data disclosed in the SEC's final prospectus. Over-allotment option shares are not counted, nor are private secondary transactions. If the amount raised falls exactly at a boundary point, it settles at the higher bracket; if the IPO is not completed by December 31, 2026, it settles at the lowest bracket.Previous news: Elon Musk's SpaceX disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday that it plans to fix the offering price at $135 per share (consistent with the price disclosed by sources) before officially launching IPO roadshow activities. SpaceX stated it plans to issue 555.6 million shares, thereby raising $75 billion.Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.
as anticipation builds for several potential major IPOs, "prediction market trading" centered around high-profile pre-IPO companies is rapidly heating up, with users betting on pre-IPO performance through prediction contracts.Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become primary channels, allowing users to engage in "yes/no" contract trading on key metrics such as valuation ranges and listing timelines. Prices are quoted in cents, settling at $1 if the outcome is correct.Given that ordinary investors cannot directly participate in equity investments in popular private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI before their IPOs, prediction markets are converting related expectations into tradeable, event-driven assets.Analysts believe that as the window for potential "mega IPOs" approaches, prediction markets are leveraging public sentiment and capital attention to turn IPO narratives into short-term volatility opportunities on both on-chain and compliant trading platforms, further expanding their influence in financial speculation and information pricing. (The Information)
the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice have filed a lawsuit against the state of Minnesota and Governor Tim Walz, opposing the state's newly signed ban on prediction markets.The new Minnesota law, set to take effect on August 1, prohibits users from engaging in prediction market trading related to outcomes in sports, weather, company valuations, and government events. In the lawsuit, the CFTC stated this is the first state-level law in the U.S. to explicitly impose a comprehensive ban on prediction markets.The CFTC and the Department of Justice argue that the relevant products fall under federally regulated derivatives and "swap" contracts, over which the CFTC holds exclusive regulatory authority, and that state governments are not permitted to classify them as illegal gambling or prohibit them.This lawsuit further escalates the jurisdictional conflict between federal regulators and state-level gambling oversight authorities. Previously, the CFTC had sued states such as Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut to oppose their attempts to shut down prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
According to Reuters, Polymarket has partnered with Nasdaq to launch a prediction market for private companies, enabling users to trade based on valuation, IPO timing, and secondary-market valuations.
Odaily. Bernstein stated in its latest research report that the newly reached compromise on stablecoin yields under the U.S. CLARITY Act is structurally beneficial for Circle and the USDC ecosystem.The report notes that the current version of the bill prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest to passive holders that is "economically equivalent" to bank deposits, but allows reward mechanisms tied to actual transaction, payment, and usage activities to continue. Bernstein believes this means Circle's current model, which relies on partners like Coinbase to provide USDC reward programs, will gain regulatory recognition, while also limiting the industry's ability to compete for market share through high yields.Bernstein points out that the bill effectively reinforces the positioning of stablecoins as "payment tools" rather than "deposit substitutes," helping to protect Circle's current business model that relies on reserve income. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating for Circle with a $190 target price.Data shows that the total global supply of dollar-pegged stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, with USDT and USDC collectively accounting for approximately 97% of the market share. Bernstein notes that USDC's share in on-chain payments and wallet transfers is steadily increasing, and its share of payments in the AI Agent payment protocol x402 has exceeded 99%.Additionally, Bernstein mentioned that Circle's ARC chain has cumulatively completed 244 million testnet transactions. The ARC token pre-sale previously raised $222 million, with investors including a16z crypto, Apollo Funds, ARK Invest, and BlackRock.However, the report also points out that the CLARITY Act still needs to complete multiple legislative procedures before it takes effect, including a 60-vote threshold in the full Senate and coordination with the House version. Polymarket currently estimates its probability of passage by 2026 at approximately 62%. (The Block)
, RWA trading platform MSX Maitong has opened subscriptions for the second phase of Pre-IPO projects. This phase's projects include AI company Anthropic and prediction market platform Polymarket. The specific subscription arrangements are as follows:Anthropic subscription opens on May 16, 2026, at 12:00 (UTC+8), with a subscription price of 855U and a valuation of $950 billion.Polymarket subscription opens on May 16, 2026, at 12:00 (UTC+8), with a subscription price of 152U and a valuation of $15 billion.The MSX Maitong Pre-IPO section aims to provide investors with a product entry point for participating in pre-IPO investment opportunities in high-quality enterprises. Users can participate in related Pre-IPO projects with a relatively low barrier using USD stablecoins. Previously, the first phase Pre-IPO project Cerebras ($CBRS.M) completed the closed loop from subscription to spot trading after listing, with subscriber yields once exceeding 300%, providing a case study reference for the feasibility of the Pre-IPO track in Web3 trading scenarios.
RWA trading platform MSX has announced that the second phase of its Pre-IPO segment is expected to officially open for subscription on May 16, 2026. The targets listed in this phase are AI large model leader Anthropic and prediction market representative platform Polymarket. The subscription price for Anthropic is 855U, with a valuation of $950 billion. The subscription price for Polymarket is set at 152U, with a valuation of $15 billion.MSX's first Pre-IPO project, Cerebras ($CBRS.M), has completed a closed loop from Pre-IPO subscription to spot trading upon IPO listing. Participating users achieved a yield of over 300% based on a subscription price of 100.35U. For details on the specific subscription quota, fee standards, and subsequent settlement arrangements for the second-phase projects, users can log in to the MSX platform page for more information.
Turnkey, a company specializing in crypto wallets and key management infrastructure, has announced the completion of a $12.5 million strategic financing round. Archetype and Circle Ventures led the round, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Bain Capital Crypto, Lightspeed Faction, Galaxy Ventures, and Variant. The project's total funding has now exceeded $65 million.The company's primary business involves developing wallet and key management infrastructure for crypto applications. This round of financing will be used to support the development and public launch of Turnkey Verifiable Cloud, a product focused on digital asset security computing. This product aims to provide enterprises with verifiable operating environments, encompassing functionalities such as transaction visibility, policy decisions, and agent-driven wallet activities. Turnkey's current clientele includes Polymarket, World App, and Anchorage Digital.
According to Fortune, payments infrastructure startup Fun has announced a $72 million Series A funding round, co-led by Multicoin Capital and SignalFire, with participation from Infinity Ventures, Pharsalus Capital, and Justin Mateen, co-founder of Tinder. Fun primarily provides cryptocurrency and fiat deposit/withdrawal infrastructure for platforms such as Polymarket, Lighter, and Aave, processing over $18 billion in annual payments. The company plans to use the new funds to expand its team of approximately 30 people.
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Printr public sale raising over $4 million" has fallen to 63%, down over 30% in a day, with a trading volume of nearly $3.26 million.Printr is a cross-chain token issuance platform that supports users and AI agents in token issuance, trading, and staking across multiple blockchain environments. It is currently deployed on 8 blockchains including Solana, Base, BNB Chain, and Ethereum, offering features such as customizable fee structures, cross-chain trading, and staking incentive mechanisms.Data indicates that the project has currently raised over $2.46 million, with approximately 35 hours remaining until the fundraising concludes.The Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Robin Markets announced on Twitter that it has completed a $475,000 seed funding round led by Fabric VC, with co-leads including Animoca Brands, ATKA Incubator, John Lilic, and Stefan D. George. Additional participants include Hilbert Capital, Layer Zero, Gnosis, and other institutional and angel investors. Robin Markets has also launched its V1 staking product to the public. Robin Markets is a DeFi platform focused on yield generation from Polymarket positions, with its core product enabling users to earn yield on their Polymarket holdings.
According to The Information, citing sources familiar with the matter, prediction market platform Polymarket is in talks with investors to raise $400 million at a valuation of approximately $1.5 billion (including new capital). This round would be added to the $600 million funding round previously announced last month by Intercontinental Exchange—the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange—which did not disclose a valuation at the time.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new market: "Anthropic, developer of Claude, next funding round deadline." The current probability of completion before the end of June is temporarily quoted at 22%; the probability before the end of December is temporarily quoted at 81%.The contract rules for this event are: If the specified company publicly and formally announces the completion of its next funding round before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be settled as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will be settled as "No." Eligible announcements must clearly confirm the completion of the new funding round, which can be through official announcements from the specified company (e.g., press release) or its investors, regulatory filings, or consensus from credible media reports. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks are not eligible. If the specified company is unable to complete a new funding round due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by another entity, the market will be settled as "No." The primary settlement sources for this market will be official announcements from the specified company and official company documents, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting may also be used.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
According to The Block, Jim Esposito, President of Citadel Securities, stated on Thursday at the Semafor World Economic Forum in Washington, D.C., that the firm is “fully capable” of providing liquidity to prediction markets—but explicitly expressed no interest in sports-event contracts. Instead, he emphasized the value of prediction markets for hedging geopolitical risks, citing the U.S. midterm elections this November as “one of the greatest risks facing investors’ portfolios.” Esposito noted that as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to grow rapidly, the prediction market is poised for sustained expansion—naturally drawing Citadel Securities into the space. Notably, Zhao Peng, CEO of Citadel Securities, participated last year in Kalshi’s $185 million funding round.
According to Polymarket’s prediction market page, the current probability of SpaceX’s IPO closing market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion stands at approximately 47%, making it the highest-probability option. The next most likely ranges are $1.8–2 trillion (18%), $1.6–1.8 trillion (13.7%), and $1.4–1.6 trillion (7.8%). Bitget launched its U.S. stock IPO subscription service, IPO Prime, on April 10, with initial support for stablecoin-based subscriptions for SpaceX, referencing an estimated valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion. Additionally, Bitget will distribute two rounds of preSPAX airdrops to VIP users: the first round of 760 preSPAX tokens will be distributed tomorrow, and the second round of 190 preSPAX tokens will be distributed on April 20.