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Analysis: Bitcoin Breaks Above $72K, Dollar Weakness and Fed Liquidity Expectations Become Key to Outlook

Odaily News - Bitcoin extended its gains on Wednesday and climbed above $72,000 on Thursday, reaching its highest level since June 1.Market analysis suggests that the recent rally is primarily driven by easing pressure in the U.S. Treasury market. The White House's earlier signals of support for Treasury market stability alleviated investor concerns over bond market volatility. However, the longer-term trajectory still depends on changes in Federal Reserve liquidity policy.Analyst Pedro Fontes noted that if the world's largest debt market requires policy support to maintain stable operation, it would further strengthen demand for assets that are scarce, predictable, and not reliant on government debt expansion—characteristics that Bitcoin aligns with. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.88% to 98.77 yesterday, hitting a fresh low since May.Strive Founder and CEO Matt Cole stated that the dollar index has been in a long-term "structural downtrend," and a weaker dollar could create a more favorable investment environment for assets like Bitcoin. Markets will continue to monitor the White House's further remarks on the bond market, shifts in geopolitical conditions, and U.S. initial jobless claims data today, as these factors could influence Treasury yields and market liquidity expectations. (CoinDesk)

Federal Reserve Rate Decision Preview: Inflation Concerns and Policy Divergence Take Center Stage

Odaily News Tim Duy, Chief US Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said that the recent appearance of multiple Fed officials casting dissenting votes on rate decisions has become more common over the past few years. Especially during periods when the economy faces multiple pressures and the policy path is unclear, strong disagreements among officials are likely, leading to more dissenting votes.Regarding the upcoming release of the Fed's meeting minutes, Duy believes the market's core focus will be on how widespread officials' concerns about inflation truly are. He noted that at the time, inflation was clearly running above the Fed's target, and policymakers worried that inflation would not quickly return to target levels. Meanwhile, the labor market was seen as having stabilized, which led some officials to strongly believe the Fed should raise rates to curb inflationary pressures. As a result, the market will closely watch how many Fed officials share this assessment, and whether concerns about inflation have formed a broader consensus within the decision-making ranks. The degree of divergence among officials over the policy path will also serve as an important clue for judging the future direction of interest rates.

Ansem: Institutional Funds Turn Bullish, Crypto Market May Have Conditions for a Bottom Formation

According to Odaily, renowned crypto KOL Ansem stated that institutional funds are turning bullish on the market. For example, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller has bought HYPE, Robinhood has launched its own L2, and hedge fund giant Paul Tudor Jones has increased his Bitcoin holdings. Meanwhile, the crypto regulatory environment has improved significantly, but crypto-native investors remain broadly extremely pessimistic. Ansem believes that the coexistence of institutional bullishness, regulatory improvement, and extreme pessimism within the market constitutes the typical conditions for a market bottom formation.

Gate Stock Market Development Lead: Crypto and Stocks Are Accelerating Convergence, Ushering in a Multi-Asset Investment Wave

Odaily News In a recent interview on Cointelegraph's program Chain Reaction, Lucas Sum, Head of Stock Market Development at Gate, stated that crypto and stocks are quietly converging and increasingly becoming part of the same macro trade. He pointed out that the correlation between the crypto market and the Nasdaq index is currently higher than the five-year average, with the correlation coefficient once exceeding 0.8. Market sentiment is generally cautious at present, with more funds staying in low-risk assets such as stablecoins, as investors await clearer catalysts.Lucas Sum believes that the core narrative of the next market cycle may no longer be "crypto vs. Wall Street," but rather traditional financial assets accelerating their entry into the digital financial system through on-chain infrastructure. The scale of RWA has grown from approximately $12 billion a year ago to over $30 billion, while the scale of tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds has also reached approximately $15 billion, indicating that on-chain financial infrastructure continues to expand. Meanwhile, macro liquidity, real yields, and regulatory clarity remain key factors influencing the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, investors' focus is shifting from single-asset allocation to coordinated allocation across multiple asset classes. Lucas Sum noted that Gate is continuously expanding its stock business, currently covering U.S., Hong Kong, and Korean stock markets, with plans to extend further into more global markets to provide the necessary infrastructure for multi-asset investment.

Gate Founder and CEO Dr. Han Featured in The Economist Interview: Gate Accelerates Construction of Multi-Asset Financial Infrastructure

Odaily News – According to the latest report by The Economist Enterprise, after 13 years of development and multiple strategic upgrades, Gate is gradually evolving from a traditional crypto asset trading platform into a comprehensive financial infrastructure connecting digital assets with traditional financial markets. The report notes that as more traditional financial products — including stocks, ETFs, tokenized assets, forex, and metals — enter the digital asset ecosystem, Gate is leveraging its multi-asset product layout and global infrastructure development to further bridge the gap between crypto finance and TradFi. In the interview, Gate Founder and CEO Dr. Han stated that as the industry evolves, digital asset platforms are no longer facing only technical challenges, but also risk management, user protection, and industry regulation.In terms of TradFi integration, Gate has established a multi-layered framework spanning tokenized assets, derivatives, and native stock trading, successively launching products and services such as xStocks, Ondo, Gate TradFi, Pre-IPOs, Direct IPO Access, and Gate Stocks. Among these, Gate Stocks now supports stock trading in the U.S., Hong Kong, and South Korea, significantly lowering the barrier for global users to participate in traditional financial markets. Meanwhile, Gate continues to enhance its 24/7 trading and liquidity infrastructure to meet the cross-market asset allocation needs of users worldwide.The Economist Enterprise also pointed out that as the digital asset market moves further toward institutionalization, compliance, transparency, and infrastructure capabilities are becoming key components of platform competitiveness. Gate continues to advance its compliance framework across multiple global jurisdictions and has provided third-party audits and open-source Proof of Reserves since 2020. In addition, Gate is introducing AI infrastructure into Web3, connecting AI with trading, wallets, and more services through products such as Gate AI, Gate MCP, and GateClaw, driving the platform's evolution from a traditional trading venue into a comprehensive financial infrastructure that connects digital assets, traditional finance, and AI applications.

Bank of Korea: 94% of Youth Unemployment in Past 4 Years Stemmed from AI High-Exposure Industries

According to the "BOK Issue Note" report released by the High Employment Research Team of the Bank of Korea Survey Bureau on the 18th, between June 2022 and June 2026, jobs for Korean youth (aged 15-29) decreased by a total of 285,000, of which 268,000 (94%) were concentrated in AI high-exposure industries, involving fields such as information services, publishing, computer programming, and professional services. Meanwhile, employment for the group aged 50 and above increased by 230,000, with 75.2% also coming from AI high-exposure industries. The report pointed out that after the release of ChatGPT, the average unemployment rate for university graduates rose to 7.0%, higher than the 5.4% for youth with associate degrees or below, whereas previously there was almost no difference between the two. The report suggested that policies should focus on building new career ladders to help youth accumulate experience and skills with AI assistance, rather than simply retaining entry-level positions.

Analysis: Bitcoin Releases Late-Bear Market Signals, Liquidity Return May Trigger Next Round of Volatility

Odaily News Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating within a narrow range recently, with volatility, trading activity, and market liquidity all compressed to levels similar to those seen at the end of a bear market.Currently, Bitcoin's price remains above the "Median Realised Price" of around $63,200, while the key level for short-term holders (STH) to achieve overall profitability stands at $67,176. Meanwhile, market demand is weakening: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $385 million last week, corporate Bitcoin reserve-related activity has turned negative, spot trading volume has fallen to multi-year lows, and Bitcoin transfer speed has dropped to its lowest level in seven years.Bitfinex stated that in the current extremely thin liquidity environment, even slight changes in capital flows could trigger significant Bitcoin price fluctuations. At the same time, weak retail activity, declining real income, and deteriorating consumer confidence indicate that U.S. household demand is under pressure. Bitfinex noted that the current market shows a clear divergence: accommodative financial conditions are driving traditional risk assets higher, but the crypto market has not yet received corresponding capital inflows.Bitfinex believes that the core market question has shifted from "whether monetary policy will improve" to "whether improved liquidity can translate into capital inflows for crypto assets." If Bitcoin spot ETFs resume sustained net inflows in the future, coupled with stablecoin supply expansion, this would signal a restart of the crypto market's liquidity transmission mechanism and could become a key catalyst for BTC breaking out of its prolonged low-volatility state.Before capital returns, although the macro environment is gradually improving, the crypto market's upside still lacks capital support. However, given that market participation has dropped to extremely low levels and BTC continues to hold key realized price support levels, once liquidity re-enters the market, it could trigger violent fluctuations. The current structure leans toward an upward breakout once demand recovers.

UK Reform Party Leader Farage Returns to Parliament, Crypto-Related Gift Investigation Resumes

According to crypto.news, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was re-elected as an MP with 63.34% of the vote in the Clacton by-election, and the UK Parliamentary Standards Commissioner subsequently reopened an investigation into his undeclared financial interests. The investigation covers two items: first, personal payments of approximately $6.7 million (approximately £5 million) received from Christopher Harborne, a billionaire investor and shareholder of stablecoin issuer Tether; second, benefits provided by long-term advisor George Cottrell, including drivers, security, social media staff, and a five-story luxury mansion in London. Farage previously denied wrongdoing on the grounds that the "gifts occurred before taking office as an MP," and resigned in July this year, causing the investigation to be suspended. After this re-election, he must redeclare financial interests within one month, and disclose registrable interests received within the 12 months prior to the election. Meanwhile, UK Labour Party MPs are pushing to upgrade the temporary ban on crypto political donations into permanent legislation.

SEC Cancels Meeting on Crypto Rule Proposal, Legislative Process Blocked on Both Fronts

According to Decrypt, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has canceled the public meeting originally scheduled for this Friday. The meeting was planned for three commissioners to vote and discuss whether to seek public comment on an issuance exemption framework tailored for crypto assets—this would be the SEC's first time advancing targeted legislation for the crypto industry. An SEC spokesperson announced the cancellation citing "unforeseen scheduling issues" without announcing a new date. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate adjourned last Saturday, failing to advance the Clarity Act, and data from prediction market Myriad shows the probability of the bill being signed into law within 2026 is only 20%. Notably, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will still hold the first meeting of the Innovation Advisory Committee as scheduled on August 20, with agenda items covering "crypto regulatory evolution" and artificial intelligence, but this meeting will only produce recommendations and does not carry legislative authority.

BlockchainAssn Files Amicus Brief Supporting Custodia, Urging Supreme Court to Review Federal Reserve Master Account Discretion

: Fox Business crypto reporter posted on X that BlockchainAssn, a crypto industry organization, has filed an amicus brief supporting Custodia Bank's petition to the U.S. Supreme Court, urging the Court to review whether regional Federal Reserve banks have the authority to deny eligible state-chartered banks access to master accounts. The organization warned that lower court rulings in favor of the Federal Reserve grant the central bank broad power to disqualify industries or companies it does not recognize from accessing banking services, effectively determining which state-chartered banks are permitted to operate. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has been granted an extension until September 11 to respond to Custodia's petition.

Polymarket restructures team and brings in multiple executives, accelerating compliance and U.S. expansion ahead of the fall prediction market surge

Odaily News: Prediction market platform Polymarket is undergoing an organizational upgrade in preparation for the upcoming fall trading peak, bringing in several new executives, restructuring its marketing system, and strengthening its compliance team in preparation for U.S. market expansion. Polymarket recently hired Travis VanderZanden, founder of shared e-scooter company Bird and former Uber and Lyft executive, as Chief Growth Officer, responsible for the company's growth strategy and marketing system development. VanderZanden stated that the prediction market is at a critical stage of rapid development, and the company needs to further improve its management team to support long-term growth.This adjustment comes as Polymarket faces regulatory scrutiny. Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had launched an investigation into its business model, related to the platform's marketing activities and promotional partnership policies. Sources say Polymarket has restructured its marketing department, updated rules for promotional partners, and provided relevant training to employees, while also hiring consulting firm AlixPartners to oversee whether content published by partners complies with the new standards.Meanwhile, Polymarket continues to strengthen its compliance and risk management capabilities for its U.S. operations. The company's U.S. trading platform has added several new executives in regulatory and risk roles, including former Robinhood executive Megan McGrath as Chief Compliance Officer for the U.S. platform, former Coinbase executive Natalie Oblazny overseeing U.S. regulatory affairs, former FBI and Coinbase employee Shana Bautista as Head of Global Investigations and Intelligence, and former Nasdaq executive Paul Jordan as Chief Risk Officer for the U.S. platform.Polymarket's U.S. trading platform went live in May this year and operates independently from its international business. With the NFL new season kicking off in September and the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, the market expects a new wave of growth in prediction market trading activity.Previously, Polymarket had already become one of the representative platforms in the prediction market space and continues to seek expanded fundraising. According to reports, the company is currently seeking a new funding round at a valuation exceeding $20 billion. As institutional investors and professional traders gradually enter the prediction market, Polymarket is attempting to transform from a retail-facing, betting-style prediction platform into a more mature financial market infrastructure. (CNBC)

US SEC Plans to Advance Cryptocurrency Issuance Rule Proposal

According to Eleanor Terrett, the U.S. Senate has delayed the procedural vote on the Clarity Act, securing a buffer period until September for the relevant legislative process. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to advance its own proposal for cryptocurrency issuance rules.

Goldman Sachs: Hedge Funds Buy Global Stocks for Second Consecutive Week, Risk Appetite Clearly Rebounds

Odaily News: Goldman Sachs data shows that global hedge funds have increased their stock holdings for the second consecutive week, reversing the significant reduction in risk exposure seen in late July, indicating that institutional investors' risk appetite is warming up.The report shows that overall hedge fund trading activity has risen to its highest level in seven weeks, with long buying volume exceeding short selling volume at a ratio of 1.4:1. Meanwhile, single-stock trading has seen its first net buying in nearly a month, suggesting that fund managers are beginning to re-establish exposure to individual stocks.In terms of sector allocation, the materials sector has emerged as one of the areas with the strongest capital demand, experiencing the largest short-covering rally in nearly two years. Goldman Sachs noted that the recent improvement in market sentiment has led to the rapid unwinding of previously established short positions, further boosting related sector performance.Earlier, hedge funds significantly reduced their stock positions in late July due to concerns over economic growth, heightened market volatility, and policy uncertainty. This consecutive buying spree suggests that some institutions are once again betting on a rebound in risk assets.

Trump's eldest son linked to Kalshi and Polymarket, raising questions over conflicts of interest and information advantages

Odaily News As prediction markets gradually expand into the realms of politics and government decision-making, insider trading risks are becoming a regulatory focus. U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has stated that it has identified multiple suspected cases of insider trading and has submitted the relevant leads to federal regulators.Kalshi spokesperson Laura Frank stated that the company prohibits market manipulation and insider trading and has established a trading surveillance system similar to those used in securities markets. Earlier this year, Kalshi's monitoring system flagged suspicious trading activity by former Congressman George Santos in markets related to the U.S. President's State of the Union address. The company subsequently submitted its investigative findings to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Additionally, federal agencies are investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of Trump's speech content to trade on Kalshi-related markets.Meanwhile, the Trump family is accelerating its push into the prediction market space. Trump Media & Technology Group is developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, which will allow users to trade prediction contracts tied to major events. The company is also launching Truth API, providing Wall Street with high-speed data access to Truth Social content.Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of the former president, currently serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, while his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, has invested in rival Polymarket and joined its advisory board. This means the Trump family is simultaneously linked to the two leading prediction market platforms, while Trump Media Group is also building its own prediction market business.Although there is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family has traded using inside government information, the potential conflicts of interest arising from the intertwining of presidential public information, market trading, and family business interests are drawing growing external scrutiny.As of now, Donald Trump Jr.'s team and Trump Media & Technology Group have not immediately responded to requests for comment. (Fortune)

Wells Fargo plans to launch tokenized deposits in fall 2026, initially supporting USD and GBP transactions

Odaily News: U.S. banking giant Wells Fargo plans to launch tokenized deposits for select corporate and commercial clients in fall 2026, initially supporting USD and GBP transactions, with plans to expand to more clients and currencies in 2027. Tokenized deposits remain bank liabilities but can enable continuous transfers, programmable payments, faster settlement, and transaction visibility via blockchain. Wells Fargo is not the only bank pursuing this initiative. JPMorgan has already expanded its blockchain-based payment services for institutional clients, and other major financial institutions are developing similar products and shared networks. Meanwhile, the circulation and transaction volume of stablecoins such as USDC continue to grow, and they are already used for settlement across crypto markets, payment networks, and tokenized finance platforms. Tokenized deposits allow funds to remain within the regulated banking system while supporting time-based transfers and condition-triggered payments. Stablecoins, on the other hand, already cover trading, remittance, cross-border payments, decentralized finance, and tokenized asset settlement. Enterprise adoption of both product types will also be influenced by accounting treatment, regulatory rules, and cross-network interoperability.

Analysis: Bitcoin Faces Dual Game of "Rate Cut Trading" and Recession Risks

Odaily News The U.S. labor market has shown notable signs of cooling. Data shows that U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, far below the market's previous expectation of an increase of 85,000, missing expectations by 108,000 — marking the third-largest monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Meanwhile, June's non-farm payroll figures were revised down by 37,000, further signaling a weakening trend in the labor market.Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve quickly declined. Data indicates that the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from roughly 70% to 40%, prompting investors to reprice the future path of Fed policy. Analysts suggest that a lower probability of rate hikes typically benefits risk assets, but the underlying reasons — weakening economic growth and a softening labor market — could also heighten market risk aversion. At the same time, gold prices have surpassed $4,400, reflecting rising demand for safe-haven assets.For Bitcoin, the current market presents a dual impact: on one hand, a shift toward looser Fed policy could boost risk appetite, which is positive for crypto assets; on the other hand, continued deterioration in the labor market could limit upside potential for the market. The market will be watching next month's non-farm payroll data to see whether it further confirms the trend of slowing employment. If labor weakness persists, it could reinforce expectations of a Fed pivot toward easing — but it could also intensify concerns of an economic recession.

Korea's Tightened Leveraged ETF Regulation Shows Effect: Trading Volume Falls Below 1 Trillion KRW for Two Consecutive Days, Heat Clearly Cooling Off

Odaily News: One week after the implementation of regulatory measures on single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs in South Korea, trading activity in related products has noticeably cooled, with trading volume falling below 1 trillion KRW for two consecutive trading days.According to data from the Korea Exchange (KRX), on August 7, the combined trading volume of 16 single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs in the Korean market stood at 941.2 billion KRW, marking the second consecutive trading day below 1 trillion KRW after the previous day's 919.8 billion KRW.Market observers believe the decline in trading volume is mainly attributed to the new regulatory measures implemented on July 31. The new rules raise the capital threshold for ordinary retail investors to participate in single-stock leveraged ETFs, increasing the base margin requirement from 10 million KRW to 30 million KRW in cash.Data shows that on the day before the regulation took effect (July 30), the trading volume of the 16 related ETFs reached as high as 12.45 trillion KRW. On the first day of regulation (July 31), it plummeted to 3.15 trillion KRW, and has continued to decline since, dropping to 1.39 trillion KRW and 1.26 trillion KRW on August 3 and 4 respectively, before falling below 1 trillion KRW in recent days.Meanwhile, the share of single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs in the overall Korean ETF market turnover has also dropped significantly, falling to 5.6% on August 7, compared with 30% to 40% before the regulation.However, Korean securities institutions point out that investment demand has not completely disappeared. Instead, there is evidence of "regulatory arbitrage" or a "balloon effect," with funds shifting toward semiconductor leveraged ETFs and overseas-listed leveraged products.Jung Hyun-jong, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, stated that while single-stock leveraged ETF trading volumes have declined following the regulation, semiconductor leveraged ETF trading volume has actually increased, indicating that some capital is rotating into alternative products. Overseas market products may also become targets for capital flows. Jung noted that since overseas-listed ETFs are not subject to domestic Korean regulatory restrictions, investors may turn to overseas single-stock leveraged ETFs. Among them, the Hong Kong-listed CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product is currently one of the largest single-stock leveraged ETF products globally by market capitalization. Domestic Korean regulatory measures alone are unlikely to fully curb investor demand for semiconductor cycles and high-leverage strategies, and the long-term effectiveness of the regulation will require continued observation. (Daum)

CLARITY Act negotiations hit a standstill, uncertainty remains over whether it can proceed to a vote before recess

Odaily News: Punchbowl News reporter posted on X platform that negotiations in the U.S. Senate over the CLARITY Act are affecting the legislative process before recess. Democratic leadership is still pushing to delay the procedural vote on the crypto regulation bill, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer seeking more time for further negotiations.Meanwhile, Republicans are calling for the vote to move forward as soon as possible. Both sides are still coordinating on the bill's content and related provisions, and it remains uncertain whether the CLARITY Act can reach a vote before the Senate recess.

The S&P 500 added $2.1 trillion in market cap in a single month, approximately equal to the total market cap of the entire crypto market.

According to CoinDesk, the S&P 500 index has risen 3.12% this month, adding approximately $2.1 trillion in market value (equivalent to the total market cap of the entire crypto market), reaching a record high total market cap of $70.5 trillion, but Bitcoin has only risen about 2% this month, hovering near $64,600. Analysts point out that this round of stock market rise is mainly driven by AI and semiconductor individual stock narratives, rather than a broad-based recovery in risk appetite at the macro level, and Bitcoin lacks direct beneficial exposure to this. Meanwhile, the crypto market also faces multiple internal pressures: the Coldcard platform suffered a $120 million exploit, the prospects of the "Clarity Act" remain uncertain, MicroStrategy has reduced its BTC holdings for three consecutive months, and stablecoin supply continues to shrink—USDT's market cap dropped from $190 billion in April to $183 billion, and USDC's dropped from $79.5 billion to $72 billion.

Coldcard vulnerability investigation escalates: At least 15 attackers identified, a single victim's findings reveal 12 BTC stolen

Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn stated that based on new victim reports received following the incident, the number of attackers exploiting the Coldcard vulnerability has reached at least 15.Thorn noted that information provided by victims helped the research team uncover previously unidentified attack activity. Unlike thefts from centralized exchanges, correlations between the attackers in this vulnerability exploit require confirmation through on-chain analysis and victim feedback.He added that a single victim reporting less than 1 BTC stolen helped the team discover a previously unknown attack, which siphoned approximately 12 BTC from 126 addresses.According to Galaxy Research's earlier estimates, the Coldcard vulnerability has led to at least three rounds of attacks, with losses amounting to approximately $100 million in BTC. Additionally, Galaxy has identified a suspected fourth round of attacks, which could bring total losses to approximately $130 million.Meanwhile, the incident has also sparked discussions regarding the security of Bitcoin self-custody. Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi stated that "AI security hardening costing around $2" could potentially have prevented this vulnerability, and noted that some AI models were able to rediscover related vulnerabilities within a relatively short timeframe. However, industry insiders pointed out that current claims about the speed of AI discovering vulnerabilities lack rigorous blind testing and verification.Researchers believe that as AI model capabilities improve, the costs of vulnerability discovery and attacks in the crypto industry may continue to decline, requiring wallet developers to further strengthen code audits and security protections. (Cointelegraph)