News linked to both this project and an event.
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
Coinbase released a monthly review on July 1, stating that in the first half of the year, it advanced its product layout around the strategy of "every asset, every market, one platform," covering tokenized stocks, pre-IPO perpetual contracts, stock options, crypto options, stock index perpetual futures, AI tools, payments, stablecoins, and on-chain infrastructure. Coinbase stated that the tokenized stocks are 1:1 backed shares of US companies, expected to include dividends, on-chain trading, holding, and redemption functions, and are not available to US persons. Coinbase also noted that its pre-IPO perpetual contracts will start with SpaceX and then expand to OpenAI and Anthropic, and will offer crypto options through integration with Deribit. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on July 3 that Coinbase is one of the companies with the highest level of AI application globally. Coinbase also stated that it has launched a direct INR on-ramp in India, become the official deployer of the USDC treasury wallet for Hyperliquid, partnered with Ethena across over $50 billion in assets, and mentioned transferring approximately $4.4 billion USDC to the Hyperliquid deployer. (Bitcoin.com News).
AI data center Crusoe Energy Systems is in talks for a new round of financing worth approximately $3 billion. Upon completion of this round, the company's valuation is expected to roughly triple from the previous round, reaching the $30 billion range.Founded in 2018, Crusoe initially started with crypto-related businesses before transitioning into an AI infrastructure and data center service provider. It is currently categorized as one of the "neocloud" firms, a new type of cloud computing company focused on providing computational power support for generative AI. The company has signed compute supply contracts with tech giants including Meta and Oracle. As demand for AI infrastructure construction surges, the scale of its compute business continues to expand.According to previously public information, Crusoe completed a funding round of approximately $1.38 billion last year, with a valuation exceeding $10 billion. If this new round is successfully completed, it would become another large-scale capital move in the AI infrastructure sector.Market sources estimate that the final valuation for this round could be around the $30 billion level, but the deal is still in progress and has not yet been finalized. (Reuters)
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity stated that when he first used ChatGPT in 2023, he believed large language models "performed poorly" in programming capabilities. However, three years later, the related technology has undergone a qualitative transformation. Modern cybersecurity and AI systems, represented by Mythos, now possess "weapon-level" capabilities. He believes the industry is currently entering a critical "inflection point," where humanoid robots and automation technologies are approaching the tipping point for large-scale replacement of human labor.Serenity noted that although outsiders often question whether humanoid robots can currently perform complex tasks such as pipe repair or electrical wiring, the direction of technological evolution is already very clear, with continued breakthroughs expected in the coming years. Market participants, including VCs and large tech companies, have begun adjusting their strategies. Some companies have internal plans to replace a significant amount of human labor with robots to reduce operational costs, referencing previous rumors about Amazon reducing hundreds of thousands of job openings through robotics.Serenity believes that highly regulated industries such as healthcare, ultra-high-skill professional positions, and service sectors relying on human emotional connections may still retain some resistance to substitution. However, the overall trend still points towards a "restructuring of labor." As competition between China and the U.S. intensifies in cutting-edge technology fields, humanoid robots and automation may enter a stage of national-level technological competition. He believes China already holds a leading position in certain areas.
: TradingView has added support for data from Hyperliquid and trade.XYZ.Users can open the search function in TradingView Supercharts and enter the prefix "HYPERLIQUID:" or "HIP3XYZ:" to find the corresponding market data.
Serenity has released an exclusive analysis of the AI ASIC market on the X platform, presenting the core thesis that "NVIDIA is the kingmaker of the ASIC market." It proposes a set of industry reasoning logic, arguing that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is not pleased with Broadcom monopolizing the custom ASIC track. With implicit support from the NVIDIA ecosystem, companies such as Marvell, MediaTek, AlChip, and GUC are steadily capturing market share originally held by Broadcom, taking on more custom chip projects for hyperscale cloud vendors. This landscape is comparable to the rise of emerging cloud service providers last year, serving as an important means for NVIDIA to hedge against the moat created by leading cloud vendors developing their own ASICs.Serenity suggests this could represent a two-year trading opportunity but does not constitute investment advice. It also predicts that after 2030, major companies like Google will internalize a significant amount of chip design work. It added that NVIDIA has the ability to reshape the valuation of the industry chain, and there have already been market expectations that Marvell could potentially reach a trillion-dollar market cap.
针对有媒体披露 Meta 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在内部会议上告诉员工，过去四个月的 AI 代理开发并未“以我们预期的速度加速”，Meta 首席 AI官 Alexander Wang 发文回应澄清表示，扎克伯格指的是整个行业在智能代理能力上的整体进展，而非 Meta 自身，他同时透露 Meta 即将发布新一轮 Muse Spark 更新，将显著提升模型的编程能力和智能代理能力，以更具竞争力地对标业内领先模型，并将陆续上线至 Meta AI 及全新 API 平台。
According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan released a research report stating that the financing model reform of Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. has changed Bitcoin market dynamics—the company selectively sells Bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends and manage its balance sheet, transforming it from one of the largest buyers in the Bitcoin market to a potential seller, introducing "avoidable" two-way flow risk to the market. JPMorgan believes that Strategy needs to hold liquidity reserves sufficient to cover dividend payments for the next two to three years to eliminate market concerns about the forced liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings.
Microsoft announced a $2.5 billion investment in a new "Applied AI Consulting and Solutions" division to help enterprises deploy and customize AI software more efficiently. The establishment of this division comes as many large enterprises face challenges in AI adoption, including complex configurations, difficulties in aligning with business scenarios, and unclear investment returns.Microsoft stated that the new team will focus on enterprise-level AI implementation, including model customization, system integration, and business process optimization, aiming to enhance the usability and commercial value of AI in real-world production environments. Market analysts believe this move further signals that AI competition is shifting from model capabilities to a new phase focused on "deployment and monetization capabilities." (TechCrunch)
Citadel Securities has filed a lawsuit in London, seeking over £6 million (approximately $7.9 million) from Leonard Lancia, its former European Head of Derivatives Systematic Market Making and co-founder of high-frequency crypto trading firm Portofino Technologies.Citadel Securities alleges that Leonard Lancia and his colleagues began planning their startup while still employed, and has won damages and legal cost support in related labor arbitration. Additionally, Citadel Securities filed a lawsuit against Portofino Technologies in the US in 2023, accusing it of stealing trade secrets. Leonard Lancia and Portofino Technologies have denied all allegations. The High Court in London rejected Leonard Lancia's request to lift the asset freezing order last Friday. (Bloomberg)
Yooldo posted on X platform, issuing an official statement regarding the significant price drop of the ESPORTS token on May 25th. The incident was not initiated, led, or intentionally caused by the ESPORTS team, which remains committed to building a healthy ecosystem and creating long-term value for the community.The key findings of the investigation are as follows: The ESPORTS team had previously onboarded external OTC and market-making partners to support liquidity and ecosystem development; the investigation found that one of these partners engaged in activities inconsistent with the team's agreed terms; based on available information, the team believes a large portion of the sell-off activity originated from tokens previously provided to this partner. However, due to the flow of transactions through multiple wallets, counterparties, and exchanges, tracing the complete fund flow is difficult; the ESPORTS team did not execute, coordinate, or instruct any market sell-offs intended to cause the price decline. Upon discovering the issue, the team cooperated with exchanges and relevant parties to investigate the incident and limit further damage; the team has begun implementing recovery measures, including liquidity support and onboarding new long-term partners, but still faces challenges from ongoing selling pressure by the market maker and related market activities.Yooldo also stated that new game updates and an additional buyback plan will be announced soon, and advised all project founders to only work with reputable and trustworthy market makers.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's probability of "GPT-5.6 to be released to the public on July 7" has risen to 64%, up 26% in 24 hours.The rules state that a model explicitly named "GPT-5.6," or a model officially recognized as the direct successor to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), will meet the settlement conditions. Task-specific models like GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and the o-series reasoning models are all included in this market. However, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not counted.Additionally, qualified models must be open to the public, including public beta or open waitlists; closed testing or private access only will not meet the requirements. The final settlement will primarily be based on OpenAI's official announcements and public information on its official website, and will be verified with mainstream media reports.On June 27, OpenAI launched the next-generation GPT-5.6 series of models, currently offering a limited preview to a select group of partners.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
According to CoinDesk, Wall Street bank Cantor Fitzgerald issued a research report indicating that the crypto market is entering the final phase of the current bear cycle. As of June 10, Bitcoin has declined approximately 51% from its 2025 peak, with 252 days having passed since the peak. Synthesizing the past three market cycles, BTC bottoms on average 384 days after the peak; based on this, the low point of this cycle is projected to appear around the end of October. Analysts also noted that the model is not a precise timing tool, and macro, regulatory, and geopolitical risks remain. Regarding network value assessment, Cantor believes Hyperliquid is the prime example of fee-driven token economics, Bitcoin remains the benchmark monetary asset, and Ethereum serves as the primary collateral layer for on-chain finance; Solana, Sui, XRP, and Zcash each possess differentiated advantages, but still need to prove that their ecosystem growth can translate into sustained token demand.
investigative journalist Whitney Webb has published a series of articles on the origins and ambitions of Polymarket, questioning its official founding narrative.Whitney Webb stated that Polymarket's official claim that "Shayne Coplan founded the company alone in 2020, starting it in a bathroom" is not true. She believes that Polymarket's origins can be traced back to an earlier company, TokenBnk, and that it is linked to a crypto company founded by the nephew and niece of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Webb also stated that Polymarket is essentially a product of Peter Thiel and his team's attempt to revive the Pentagon's early controversial project, the Policy Analysis Market (PAM). This project was previously cancelled due to controversy, and Polymarket can be seen as its "privatized rebirth."
According to PRNewswire, Trump family crypto mining company American Bitcoin announced it will implement a 1-for-15 reverse stock split on July 2, 2026, Eastern Time. Following the split, its common stock will resume trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market at an adjusted price on July 6, 2026. The trading symbol will remain ABTC, but the CUSIP number will be updated.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 being restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 97%, up 71% in 24 hours.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 just days after its release on June 9.The latest update indicates that Anthropic has received notification that the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Access rights will begin to be restored.Odaily Seer Channel continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
According to the latest report from investment bank Jefferies, the U.S. "Clarity Act," although having passed a bipartisan 15:9 vote in the Senate Banking Committee, still faces significant hurdles in the subsequent legislative process. Political uncertainty may exacerbate crypto market volatility in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory boundary for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the U.S. crypto market structure. Jefferies pointed out that passage would significantly boost institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decline from 70% in mid-May, primarily due to disputes over ethical clauses, anti-money-laundering reviews, and a tight Senate agenda. Analysts note that with approximately only 20 legislative days remaining before Congress adjourns in August, it must complete the reconciliation of House and Senate versions, procedural votes, and submission to the President for signature. If it fails to advance before the recess, it may be delayed until next year, or even further postponed due to changes in the election cycle.Jefferies believes that if the bill is enacted, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, benefiting the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if delayed, it could suppress institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs.Additionally, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue affecting the stock performance of crypto-related public companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations gradually clarify, intensified competition in the stablecoin space could become a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)
Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire has seemingly responded to the launch of Open USD. He stated that stablecoins are reshaping the infrastructure for storing and transferring value on the internet, becoming one of the largest potential market opportunities globally, and emphasized his long-term strong bullish outlook on this sector.Circle will continue to expand the USDC ecosystem by integrating with more blockchain networks, enhancing cross-chain interoperability, and strengthening connections with the traditional financial system, including banks, payment companies, and capital market institutions. The goal is to further standardize stablecoin infrastructure. At the same time, the company welcomes continuous innovation and competition within the industry and will focus on building more robust stablecoin infrastructure while improving partners' ecological participation and economic incentive mechanisms. This is aimed at driving the development of a "stablecoin-native Internet financial system."Previously, it was reported that, potentially influenced by competitive news regarding Open USD, CRCL experienced a sharp intraday decline of nearly 9%.
Economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff stated in his latest commentary that the market widely believes it is "almost impossible" for Bitcoin to drop to $20,000, but this judgment lacks a solid basis.Schiff pointed out that Bitcoin fell below the $20,000 level approximately 3.5 years ago, a period not so distant that a return to this price range can be ruled out. Significant retracements of assets within relatively short cycles are not uncommon in financial markets. He further noted that due to Bitcoin's higher volatility compared to most stocks, a pullback of similar magnitude under changes in macro or liquidity conditions is "entirely reasonable," and the market should not underestimate the downside risk.
Nasdaq has announced the selection of the Pyth Network as its market data distribution channel, bringing its core product, Nasdaq TotalView, which includes depth market data and order imbalance information, onto the blockchain and institutional-grade data networks.According to the announcement, Nasdaq will join the Pyth Data Marketplace as a data publisher. This integration will enable its market data to be distributed through a single interface to on-chain protocols, institutional systems, and various software-driven financial applications. This marks the first time Pyth has carried native market data distribution from a major exchange.Nasdaq TotalView is its standard depth-of-market data product, covering the complete order book. It displays the order depth at each price level and market participant behavior, while also providing order imbalance data during the opening and closing auction periods.