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Morgan Stanley: US Treasury Doubles Long-Term Treasury Buyback Volume; Signaling Value Outweighs Substantive Impact

According to TechFlow research, Morgan Stanley's August 20 report noted that the U.S. Treasury will increase the size of its liquidity-supporting repo operations for the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year tenors from $2 billion per transaction to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. This marks the first adjustment to the repurchase volume outside of the quarterly refinancing window since the repo program launched in May 2024. The two tenors combined add $1.6 billion in notional amount, corresponding to approximately $19.3 million in DV01 (price change per one-basis-point move in rates), with a risk impact roughly double that of the November 2023 "supply surprise." Morgan Stanley stated that the Treasury's decision to expand repurchases ahead of schedule outside the quarterly refinancing window aims to signal close monitoring of long-end interest rate dynamics to the market, thereby buying time for the November refinancing window. The recent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and curve steepening primarily reflect the market's repricing of energy prices and central bank policy trajectories, rather than concerns over deficits or supply. Morgan Stanley maintains its recommendation for a 7-year versus 30-year Treasury curve steepening trade, targeting a spread of 100 basis points (currently around 71 basis points). On the FX front, coordinated volatility in gold and the Swiss franc hit an annual peak on August 19; should the U.S. dollar policy narrative reassert itself, EUR/USD is likely to approach 1.2150.

Harmony Announces Rollback Plan: Will Revert to August 11 Block State to Remove Impact of Forged Inflation

Harmony has released a rollback plan, planning to retain Shard 0 Block 92,730,034 and Shard 1 Block 94,978,278, both corresponding to 23:25:37 UTC on August 11, 2026. Validators will use a replacement database, and the new client version will reject the relevant anomalous block hashes, subsequently continuing block production from the new block height.

Nomura: AI Creates More Jobs Than Layoffs, India Becomes Global AI Employment Impact "Ground Zero"

According to Bloomberg, Nomura Holdings economists Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh released a research report noting that India, serving as a back-office service center for many global enterprises, is currently becoming a key sample for evaluating the impact of AI on the employment market. The report analyzed 69 cases in Asia (mainly covering the period from 2022 to August 2026), with conclusions showing that the growth rate of hiring for AI-related roles in India has currently exceeded the scale of layoffs and hiring freezes caused by AI. Nomura believes that, by virtue of its massive labor force, India is bearing the "largest absolute impact" under the AI wave and is the most representative "frontline" for observing the impact of AI technology on employment.

Mizuho: Clarity Act Could Intensify Long-Term Competition in Stablecoins, Negative Impact on Circle

Mizuho analysts stated that if the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," is passed, while it may generally benefit the digital asset industry, the long-term impact on Circle could be negative. The reason is that regulatory clarity will attract more large institutions into the stablecoin market, further accelerating stablecoin commodification and eroding the revenue potential of Circle's USDC.Mizuho believes that the primary pressure Circle faces in the near term comes from Open USD. This stablecoin project is backed by a coalition of over 140 financial, technology, and crypto companies, with members including Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, and Coinbase. Unlike Circle's model, which retains approximately 38% of USDC reserve yields, Open USD employs a "pass-through" model, distributing nearly all reserve yields to distribution partners while retaining only a small management fee.Analysts also noted that Coinbase, as the largest distributor of USDC, also supports Open USD. This could give Coinbase stronger bargaining power when renegotiating its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle in the future. The distribution agreement between the two parties could be up for renegotiation as early as next month.

Cambridge Study: US Hosts ~31% of Ethereum Nodes; Over One-Third Nodes Offline Could Impact Finalization

Odaily Odaily A new study by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance reveals that approximately 31% of Ethereum node activity is located in the United States, with another 39% distributed across EU countries excluding the UK, indicating that the geographic distribution of Ethereum nodes remains relatively concentrated in Western nations.Lead researcher Alexander Neumuller stated that while node distribution is not currently concentrated in any single country, it is heavily reliant on a few major cloud service providers, including Hetzner, Amazon AWS, and OVH. Notably, the Ethereum network does not require half of its validators to fail for problems to arise. If more than one-third of validators go offline simultaneously, the network may be unable to finalize block checkpoints (finalization). Neumuller pointed out that nodes and validators do not have a one-to-one correspondence; a single node may run multiple validators. Therefore, it is currently impossible to precisely assess the actual impact on the validator network from the failure of a specific node or service provider.Furthermore, the study reassessed the energy consumption of Ethereum following The Merge. Data shows that Ethereum's current annual energy consumption is approximately 7.9 GWh, equivalent to a continuous power draw of about 1 MW. This represents only about 0.02% of pre-merge levels, a reduction of approximately 99.98%. Currently, over 56% of the energy used by the Ethereum network comes from sustainable sources, exceeding the global average.The study also noted that client software diversity is another potential risk. If a dominant client software has a vulnerability, it could affect a large number of network participants. The report was published by the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and supported by the Ethereum Foundation. (The)

IC3 Researcher: Crypto Technology Has Limited Impact on Solving AI Trust and Payment Issues

IC3, a research group composed of researchers from multiple top universities, has released a research report stating that claims about crypto technology being able to solve core AI problems are often exaggerated. These exaggerated claims include identifying AI-generated content, eliminating algorithmic bias, and enabling AI Agents to achieve full autonomy.The report points out that AI systems do not become smarter simply by having a crypto wallet, nor are they more resistant to human manipulation or shutdown. The primary function of the wallet is to enhance automation capabilities, allowing AI Agents to conduct on-chain transactions, payments, and call infrastructure without requiring manual approval for each step.The researchers believe that AI Agents will still rely on humans and underlying infrastructure. Traditional payment systems can also support partial automation. Therefore, while blockchain may have some application value in AI payment and trust mechanisms, it is not a universal solution.The report also responds to the recent industry热议 regarding on-chain payments by AI Agents. MetaMask recently launched a non-custodial wallet for AI Agents, and Robinhood also plans to allow users to conduct crypto transactions through AI Agents. (The Block)

Wasabi Protocol: Solana Contract Security—Vulnerability Impact Limited to EVM Deployments

Wasabi Protocol stated that the Wasabi smart contracts on Solana are secure and unaffected by this vulnerability. The vulnerability is limited to Wasabi’s EVM deployments. The team is collaborating with leading security firms and has contacted law enforcement and the FBI. Further updates will be shared as they become available.

Lido Discloses Impact of Kelp Security Incident; ~9% Exposure of EarnETH Affected

Lido has released an update regarding the Kelp security incident, stating that its Earn-series vaults are working with the management team to address the issue, focusing on two key risk areas: rsETH exposure and tightening liquidity in lending markets. Lido emphasizes that its core staking protocol remains unaffected, and both stETH and wstETH remain secure and stable. Currently, only the EarnETH vault holds approximately 9% of its TVL in rsETH exposure; related deposits and withdrawals have been suspended by the management team pending resolution. Of the ~$70 million in ETH stolen in the earlier attack, roughly $70 million has already been recovered; asset recovery and loss allocation efforts are ongoing. To mitigate liquidity pressure, the management team has reduced leverage and optimized position structures, significantly decreasing wETH debt exposure. Should losses ultimately materialize, EarnETH will activate its $3 million “first-loss protection mechanism,” funded by the DAO. Other vaults remain unaffected: DVV and EarnUSD are operating normally. The GGV sub-vault is currently experiencing negative yields due to a combination of recursive staking strategies and rising borrowing rates, but active adjustments are underway. Users’ previously submitted withdrawal requests will be processed at pre-incident valuations.