Morgan Stanley: US Treasury Doubles Long-Term Treasury Buyback Volume; Signaling Value Outweighs Substantive Impact

According to TechFlow research, Morgan Stanley's August 20 report noted that the U.S. Treasury will increase the size of its liquidity-supporting repo operations for the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year tenors from $2 billion per transaction to at least $4 billion, effective September 9. This marks the first adjustment to the repurchase volume outside of the quarterly refinancing window since the repo program launched in May 2024. The two tenors combined add $1.6 billion in notional amount, corresponding to approximately $19.3 million in DV01 (price change per one-basis-point move in rates), with a risk impact roughly double that of the November 2023 "supply surprise." Morgan Stanley stated that the Treasury's decision to expand repurchases ahead of schedule outside the quarterly refinancing window aims to signal close monitoring of long-end interest rate dynamics to the market, thereby buying time for the November refinancing window. The recent rise in the 10-year Treasury yield and curve steepening primarily reflect the market's repricing of energy prices and central bank policy trajectories, rather than concerns over deficits or supply. Morgan Stanley maintains its recommendation for a 7-year versus 30-year Treasury curve steepening trade, targeting a spread of 100 basis points (currently around 71 basis points). On the FX front, coordinated volatility in gold and the Swiss franc hit an annual peak on August 19; should the U.S. dollar policy narrative reassert itself, EUR/USD is likely to approach 1.2150.