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Glassnode pointed out in its latest market report that although Bitcoin has rebounded slightly after retreating from the $65,000 zone last week, it remains clearly range-bound overall. Spot trading volume and on-chain transaction throughput continue to shrink, with market liquidity and participation willingness at low levels. The derivatives market also shows caution, with leverage expanding moderately, but aggressive taker activity in perpetual contracts continues to lean toward the sell side, reflecting more aggressive distribution behavior. Funding rates remain positive, indicating lingering long-side inclination, while the options market continues to price downside protection at a premium above actual volatility levels.Institutional demand has simultaneously weakened, with declining spot ETF volumes compounded by net outflows. Institutional positions are near their cost basis, limiting unrealized profit potential for regulated investors and causing a temporary pause in accumulation momentum. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of supply in loss and realized losses consistently exceeding profit-taking.The report also noted that the broader pace of capital outflows has begun to slow, which could be an early signal that selling pressure is stabilizing. The overall market remains caught between short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, deteriorating institutional flows, and elevated loss realization collectively point to a continuation of the consolidation pattern, while the slowing outflow pace suggests the market may be approaching a more balanced state before its next directional move.
Odaily News, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is currently trading between a median realized price of approximately $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,700. Spot trading volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since 2019, with the market in an extremely quiet state of compression. Core inflation fell to 2.5% in July and stock markets hit new highs, yet Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction or has even weakened, indicating a clear absence of demand. Selling pressure is subsiding, with profitable supply approaching levels seen at previous bear market bottoms. The seller exhaustion indicator has hit cycle lows, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.Meanwhile, buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, with negligible net inflows into ETFs and Bitcoin still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives leverage has already been heavily skewed toward longs ahead of time, open interest remains relatively high compared to trading volume, and order book bid depth is thinning. Glassnode identifies key levels to watch at approximately $68,700 to the upside and $58,500 to the downside. Only a decisive break above the former, accompanied by a recovery in trading volumes and ETF inflows, would confirm market improvement. If the latter is lost, an accelerated decline is likely given thin buying support and crowded long positioning. Glassnode states that Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage bear market compression phase, and no genuine demand signal has yet emerged.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
According to Glassnode data reported by Odaily, the $63,000 level is emerging as a key support and battleground zone for Bitcoin (BTC) in the current market. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has continued to trade within the $60,000 to $67,000 range, with over 3% of BTC's circulating supply—approximately 515,000 BTC—having a cost basis concentrated near $63,000. Additionally, more than 362,000 BTC is concentrated in the $61,000 area. Glassnode notes that only the $78,000 to $82,000 range currently has a higher supply density than this zone, corresponding to Bitcoin's May cyclical peak.Furthermore, Bitcoin's current price nearly coincides with the 200-week moving average. Glassnode data shows that the 200-week MA currently stands at approximately $63,657, while BTC's price is around $63,822, indicating significant historical accumulation and strong cost support in this area.Looking at the 30-day cumulative Accumulation Trend Score, all types of investors are currently in a net accumulation state, with retail buying momentum being the most pronounced. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC continue to increase their positions, suggesting that long-term capital is still positioning itself. The $63,000 level has become a critical price band in Bitcoin's short-term market structure, and investor accumulation behavior may provide important reference for future price movements. (CoinDesk)
Odaily News On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the yield on Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a trend that has now persisted for several months.Glassnode pointed out that there has only been one similar instance in history where the duration of this condition came close to the current one, namely the period from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.The firm stated that the prolonged slump in the futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall depth and trading volume of the market.Analysts believe that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and demand for arbitrage funds. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it implies that investors are earning insufficient additional returns for the risk taken by holding Bitcoin futures, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market, thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Bitcoin was priced at approximately $63,020 on Friday, down 1.7% on the day and 50% lower than the record high of $126,080 set in October. Bitcoin failed to hold above $65,000 on Wednesday, dropping to an intraday low of $62,640, breaking through the $64,500 Put Wall associated with this week's option expiry. Glassnode数据显示，over 65% of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges comes from long-term holders selling at a loss. The firm noted that this reading aligns with early bear market phases, during which this group dominated the sell-side until selling pressure gradually exhausted. Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at Hashkey, stated that the global equity pullback and accelerated deleveraging of semiconductor and AI-related assets have dampened market risk appetite and reduced institutional exposure to Bitcoin. He pointed out that the derivatives market does not show crowded leverage, with selling pressure concentrated in the spot market. After a net outflow of $425 million on Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday. Related funds have attracted cumulative inflows of approximately $51 billion since their launch in 2024. (Decrypt)
Glassnode stated that the extent to which long-term holders dominate selling pressure can be assessed by observing exchange fund flows. The indicator "Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Exchange Realized Profit/Loss Relative Ratio" shows that among the funds currently flowing into exchanges, over 65% come from long-term holders selling at a loss.
on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that top traders on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid are heavily long on Bitcoin, with their sustained long position reaching the highest level since the platform's records began, surpassing the level seen during Bitcoin's previous rally to approximately $83,000. Glassnode noted that this position indicates strong speculative demand at the current price level. Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange where traders can trade leveraged perpetual contracts with no expiry date on-chain. A Bitcoin whale on Hyperliquid has recently pushed net long positions to a year-to-date high. Glassnode's weekly report shows that despite Bitcoin's price decline in June, accumulation has continued; Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $65,000 level.
On July 13, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $424.66 million, with Fidelity's FBTC net outflow of $245.62 million, Blackrock's IBIT net outflow of $185.5 million, and Grayscale's GBTC net outflow of $53.06 million. Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust had a net inflow of $53.38 million, while Vaneck's HODL posted a net inflow of $6.14 million. The total trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs was $2.06 billion, with total net assets of $74.79 billion. Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $15.41 million, mainly from Fidelity's FETH, with total trading volume of $430.91 million and net assets of $9.46 billion. HYPE ETFs saw a net outflow of $3.93 million, all from Bitwise's BHYP, with total trading volume of $14.79 million and net assets of $327.79 million. XRP and Solana ETFs had no trading activity that day. Glassnode indicates that the trading volume of US spot ETFs has dropped by 78% from its peak and is now below 2024 levels. (Bitcoin.com News).
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are gradually transferring holdings to a new round of buyers. Glassnode's RHODL Ratio began to decline after reaching a historical second-high of 6.5 in early July and has now fallen below 6, but the Bitcoin price remains trading sideways around the $60,000 range, with no significant panic selling observed.
According to The Block, Glassnode's latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin has been trading below the realized market mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200) for five consecutive months, marking one of the longest deep value periods in its history. Daily average realized losses for long-term holders reached $280 million, the highest since December 2022, accounting for 43% of the total on-chain realized value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $84.86 million on July 8, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $70.48 million on the same day, marking five consecutive days of positive inflows. In terms of derivatives, the options open interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, the lowest in 2026, while perpetual funding rates remained below neutral levels, indicating the market overall holds a cautiously bullish positioning. In terms of geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed, and the U.S. Central Command carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran, causing Bitcoin's weekly gains to narrow from 9.4% to approximately 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued cooling of long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of institutional capital flows, and the price reclaiming the realized market mean are the three prerequisite conditions for the market to enter a bull market.
Glassnode's latest weekly report states that Bitcoin has consistently traded below the Realized Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is advancing, it is not yet complete. On-chain data shows that Long-Term Holder loss realization accounts for 43% of total Realized Value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not yet significantly cooled.
Glassnode's latest weekly report points out that after Bitcoin fell below $60,000, market sentiment remains suppressed by continuous net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, defensive options hedging, and expectations of macro tightening. However, on-chain data shows that long-term holders have resumed accumulation, with multiple wallet size groups absorbing supply simultaneously, indicating that some high-conviction capital is gradually absorbing selling pressure.
Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000 on Thursday, recovering from 21-month lows hit earlier this week, showing signs of stabilization following a period of high volatility. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $296 million on July 1, extending the trend of capital exodus. June alone saw outflows of about $4.5 billion, marking one of the worst months on record. Among them, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF led with a single-day net inflow of $36.3 million.On-chain data indicates that long-term holders have re-entered an accumulation phase after an extended period of distribution, with buying pressure increasing from addresses holding 100–1000 BTC. Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are in a state of unrealized loss, surpassing the 9.22 million BTC that are in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted that the Coinbase order book shows increased buying depth, and market makers' Gamma positioning is stabilizing, suggesting structural support is forming. However, the derivatives market remains cautious. The options market Put/Call ratio has risen to a one-year high, with implied volatility increasing, reflecting heightened demand for hedging. Meanwhile, long leverage exposure on Hyperliquid has climbed to a cyclical high, indicating diverging market sentiment.On the price structure front, Bitcoin briefly broke below $58,000 before repeatedly testing support. It currently remains below the critical Gamma Flip zone of around $68,000. The realized price of approximately $53,000 is viewed as a key structural support level. On the macroeconomic front, US non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, pushing back expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts. The broader crypto market remains in a phase of capital rotation and structural competition. (The Block)
According to Glassnode data, long-term holders—wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days—have shifted from net distribution to net accumulation, indicating a recovery in BTC demand. Small and medium-sized wallets are leading a broad trend of buying the dip, while the largest whale wallets remain mostly neutral. Analysts say it is still too early to conclude that the market has entered a full accumulation phase. (CoinDesk).
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $57,779 on Wednesday, hitting a low not seen since September 2024, before rebounding 2.8% to around $60,000. The rebound came after weaker-than-expected U.S. employment and manufacturing data, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not clearly signal a rate hike inclination. ADP data showed that U.S. private sector added 98,000 jobs in June, lower than May's 122,000 and market expectations; the ISM Manufacturing Index fell from 54 to 53.3, and the Prices Paid Index dropped from 82.1 to 73. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed flat at 4.15%. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $4.5 billion in outflows in June, setting a monthly outflow record. Glassnode data indicates that long-term holders have re-entered an accumulation phase, while the bid-side proportion in the spot order books of Binance and Coinbase has increased.
on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode has released its latest weekly market summary, noting that Bitcoin has briefly stabilized around the $60,000 level. However, the market is characterized by strong defensive traits and a lack of bullish confidence.The spot market is range-bound, with trading activity slightly increasing. Yet, capital continues to flow out on a net basis, and market liquidity is primarily driven by distribution, with no large-scale accumulation observed. The derivatives market is persistently deleveraging, with traders prioritizing downside hedging protection and showing low willingness for directional long positions. Funding rates remain low, indicating a generally weak risk appetite. Institutional pressure is significant, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs are collectively in a state of unrealized losses, with continued net capital outflows and low willingness among institutions to increase positions.Glassnode states that the current market is undergoing a period of structural adjustment and capital contraction. The $60,000 level provides only temporary support, and there are no signs of recovery in spot orders, derivatives positions, or institutional capital. For a sustained upward trend to emerge, a significant restoration of confidence among buyers is required.
: On-chain data analytics platform Glassnode posted on X that its “Accumulation Trend Score” indicator shows that after Bitcoin’s price dipped to the $60,000 range in early June, the overall behavior of on-chain addresses has notably shifted toward accumulation.This indicator measures the intensity of on-chain accumulation behavior by combining holding sizes with recent balance changes. A score close to 1 represents widespread accumulation, while a score near 0 indicates ongoing distribution.Glassnode notes that as the price enters lower ranges, the scores for holders of different sizes rise simultaneously, indicating a typical “buy-the-dip” market structure. That is, the price decline did not trigger sustained selling, but instead sparked stronger on-chain demand inflows.Analysts believe that this cross-cohort synchronized accumulation structure typically appears in the early stages of market sentiment recovery, reflecting that medium- to long-term capital is being repositioned.
Odaily News, Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted on platform X to analyze the recent trend of Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading in the $62,000 range, down nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a 24% decline in the past month. The price has now broken through the upper range of his pricing framework and entered a valuation cluster zone where bottoms have historically formed.Rafael further indicated that the market bottom cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be identified through probabilistic ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has fallen below the breakeven line for median holders for the first time since December 2022, and is currently within a broader support zone: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average is around $61,700. At this stage, the high-probability bottom range could be between $46,000-$54,000, while the $35,000-$40,000 area below that represents a rare "sell-off tail." Notably, the magnitude of cycle corrections is gradually diminishing: previous cycles saw drops of roughly 85%, 84%, and 77% from the peak, while this cycle has only declined about 50%. This suggests the high-probability bottom is more likely within the upper range, though extreme sell-offs cannot be ruled out.