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Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Glassnode Co-founder: Bitcoin May Have Entered Bottom Range, High-Probability Bottom Between $46,000-$54,000
Odaily News, Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted on platform X to analyze the recent trend of Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading in the $62,000 range, down nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a 24% decline in the past month. The price has now broken through the upper range of his pricing framework and entered a valuation cluster zone where bottoms have historically formed.Rafael further indicated that the market bottom cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be identified through probabilistic ranges and key price levels. Bitcoin has fallen below the breakeven line for median holders for the first time since December 2022, and is currently within a broader support zone: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average is around $61,700. At this stage, the high-probability bottom range could be between $46,000-$54,000, while the $35,000-$40,000 area below that represents a rare "sell-off tail." Notably, the magnitude of cycle corrections is gradually diminishing: previous cycles saw drops of roughly 85%, 84%, and 77% from the peak, while this cycle has only declined about 50%. This suggests the high-probability bottom is more likely within the upper range, though extreme sell-offs cannot be ruled out.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Spot Liquidity Weakness Coupled with ETF Outflows, Slowing Outflow Pace Signals Stabilization
Glassnode pointed out in its latest market report that although Bitcoin has rebounded slightly after retreating from the $65,000 zone last week, it remains clearly range-bound overall. Spot trading volume and on-chain transaction throughput continue to shrink, with market liquidity and participation willingness at low levels. The derivatives market also shows caution, with leverage expanding moderately, but aggressive taker activity in perpetual contracts continues to lean toward the sell side, reflecting more aggressive distribution behavior. Funding rates remain positive, indicating lingering long-side inclination, while the options market continues to price downside protection at a premium above actual volatility levels.Institutional demand has simultaneously weakened, with declining spot ETF volumes compounded by net outflows. Institutional positions are near their cost basis, limiting unrealized profit potential for regulated investors and causing a temporary pause in accumulation momentum. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of supply in loss and realized losses consistently exceeding profit-taking.The report also noted that the broader pace of capital outflows has begun to slow, which could be an early signal that selling pressure is stabilizing. The overall market remains caught between short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, deteriorating institutional flows, and elevated loss realization collectively point to a continuation of the consolidation pattern, while the slowing outflow pace suggests the market may be approaching a more balanced state before its next directional move.
Bitcoin Volatility Hits New Cycle Low, Analysts Warn "Low Volatility Does Not Equal Low Risk"
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
Analysis: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders' Holdings Hit All-Time High, Potentially Signaling an Earlier Cycle Bottom
Odaily News According to Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders have risen to a record high, potentially indicating that the bottom of this crypto market cycle could emerge earlier than in the past. Data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode shows that long-term holders (those holding coins for at least 155 days) currently possess approximately 14.7 million BTC, a historic high, suggesting that seasoned investors are continuing to "hold" their coins, reflecting strong market confidence. The on-chain data also reveals that since November 2025, the supply held by long-term holders has grown by about 14%, indicating the market has re-entered an accumulation phase following a period of significant liquidation.Cory Klippsten pointed out that, in historical cycles, this level of holdings typically corresponds to a cyclical bottom zone, reflecting long-term capital's firm expectations for Bitcoin's future value. He believes this could mean the bottom for the current cycle will arrive earlier than the historical average pace.However, this view contrasts with some market predictions. For example, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, suggests the Bitcoin cycle bottom could appear between October and December 2026, and may be influenced by the market Net Asset Value (mNAV) cycle. Furthermore, market sentiment is also affected by the progress of US crypto regulation. Grayscale noted that the passage of the "CLARITY Act" remains uncertain; any legislative delays could prolong institutional deleveraging, creating additional downward pressure on Bitcoin's price. (Cointelegraph)
Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
Analysis: This BTC rebound is driven by “liquidity” rather than a fundamental strengthening of the trend.
According to The Block, Bitcoin rose approximately 6% this week, briefly reaching $76,300—the highest level in nearly two months—yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 21 (“Extreme Fear”). Multiple institutional analysts characterize this rally as “liquidity-driven” rather than a structural strengthening. Glassnode notes that while spot demand and ETF inflows have improved, the recovery lacks depth, institutional participation remains cautious, and options market positioning continues to favor downside protection. Bitfinex attributes this price increase primarily to concentrated buying by “Strategists” (who purchased 13,927 BTC last week), rather than an organic rebound in demand. Analysts broadly view $75,000 as a critical support level; if structural buying wanes and this level fails to hold, prices could retreat to the $70,000–$71,000 range. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and the June FOMC meeting are seen as the next key risk catalysts.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Spot Liquidity Weakness Coupled with ETF Outflows, Slowing Outflow Pace Signals Stabilization
Glassnode pointed out in its latest market report that although Bitcoin has rebounded slightly after retreating from the $65,000 zone last week, it remains clearly range-bound overall. Spot trading volume and on-chain transaction throughput continue to shrink, with market liquidity and participation willingness at low levels. The derivatives market also shows caution, with leverage expanding moderately, but aggressive taker activity in perpetual contracts continues to lean toward the sell side, reflecting more aggressive distribution behavior. Funding rates remain positive, indicating lingering long-side inclination, while the options market continues to price downside protection at a premium above actual volatility levels.Institutional demand has simultaneously weakened, with declining spot ETF volumes compounded by net outflows. Institutional positions are near their cost basis, limiting unrealized profit potential for regulated investors and causing a temporary pause in accumulation momentum. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of supply in loss and realized losses consistently exceeding profit-taking.The report also noted that the broader pace of capital outflows has begun to slow, which could be an early signal that selling pressure is stabilizing. The overall market remains caught between short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, deteriorating institutional flows, and elevated loss realization collectively point to a continuation of the consolidation pattern, while the slowing outflow pace suggests the market may be approaching a more balanced state before its next directional move.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Enters Late-Stage Bear Market Compression Phase, No Genuine Demand Signal Yet
Odaily News, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is currently trading between a median realized price of approximately $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,700. Spot trading volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since 2019, with the market in an extremely quiet state of compression. Core inflation fell to 2.5% in July and stock markets hit new highs, yet Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction or has even weakened, indicating a clear absence of demand. Selling pressure is subsiding, with profitable supply approaching levels seen at previous bear market bottoms. The seller exhaustion indicator has hit cycle lows, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.Meanwhile, buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, with negligible net inflows into ETFs and Bitcoin still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives leverage has already been heavily skewed toward longs ahead of time, open interest remains relatively high compared to trading volume, and order book bid depth is thinning. Glassnode identifies key levels to watch at approximately $68,700 to the upside and $58,500 to the downside. Only a decisive break above the former, accompanied by a recovery in trading volumes and ETF inflows, would confirm market improvement. If the latter is lost, an accelerated decline is likely given thin buying support and crowded long positioning. Glassnode states that Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage bear market compression phase, and no genuine demand signal has yet emerged.
Bitcoin Volatility Hits New Cycle Low, Analysts Warn "Low Volatility Does Not Equal Low Risk"
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the 36% long-term support bottom, with prices trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, declining trading costs actually attract traders to establish large-scale directional bets and hedge positions. Once the market breaks through key levels, market makers' passive hedging will accelerate price volatility, leading to a mean-reverting rebound in volatility. Regarding market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that current demand for put options has significantly weakened, but call option buying is also absent—Glassnode describes this as "no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside," believing this is typically a signal that the market is approaching a cycle bottom. The divergence in price trends between DOGE and BTC also confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next significant catalyst could be institutional ETF fund inflows driven by positive regulatory developments such as the Clarity Act, while a breakdown in Strait of Hormuz negotiations and inflation shocks constitute major downside risks.
Analysis: $63,000 Becomes the Key Battleground for Bitcoin Bulls and Bears and a Critical Market Support Level
According to Glassnode data reported by Odaily, the $63,000 level is emerging as a key support and battleground zone for Bitcoin (BTC) in the current market. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has continued to trade within the $60,000 to $67,000 range, with over 3% of BTC's circulating supply—approximately 515,000 BTC—having a cost basis concentrated near $63,000. Additionally, more than 362,000 BTC is concentrated in the $61,000 area. Glassnode notes that only the $78,000 to $82,000 range currently has a higher supply density than this zone, corresponding to Bitcoin's May cyclical peak.Furthermore, Bitcoin's current price nearly coincides with the 200-week moving average. Glassnode data shows that the 200-week MA currently stands at approximately $63,657, while BTC's price is around $63,822, indicating significant historical accumulation and strong cost support in this area.Looking at the 30-day cumulative Accumulation Trend Score, all types of investors are currently in a net accumulation state, with retail buying momentum being the most pronounced. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC continue to increase their positions, suggesting that long-term capital is still positioning itself. The $63,000 level has become a critical price band in Bitcoin's short-term market structure, and investor accumulation behavior may provide important reference for future price movements. (CoinDesk)
Glassnode Warns of Market Liquidity Pressure: BTC Three-Month Futures Basis Hits Historically Rare Low
Odaily News On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the yield on Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a trend that has now persisted for several months.Glassnode pointed out that there has only been one similar instance in history where the duration of this condition came close to the current one, namely the period from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.The firm stated that the prolonged slump in the futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall depth and trading volume of the market.Analysts believe that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and demand for arbitrage funds. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it implies that investors are earning insufficient additional returns for the risk taken by holding Bitcoin futures, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market, thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity.
Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Coinbase Institutional Maintains Neutral Outlook on Crypto Market for Q3 2026
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
Glassnode：比特币期权市场防御情绪降温，短期看跌对冲需求回落
Glassnode 发布比特币期权市场数据指出，比特币期权市场的防御性情绪正在降温。未平仓合约看跌/看涨比率已由 6 月下旬的约 0.76 快速降至约 0.52，显示看涨期权未平仓占比上升，随着比特币价格稳定在约 6.7 万美元附近，防御性仓位有所回撤。
Glassnode: Bitcoin Stabilizes Around $60,000, Market Sentiment Heavily Defensive
on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode has released its latest weekly market summary, noting that Bitcoin has briefly stabilized around the $60,000 level. However, the market is characterized by strong defensive traits and a lack of bullish confidence.The spot market is range-bound, with trading activity slightly increasing. Yet, capital continues to flow out on a net basis, and market liquidity is primarily driven by distribution, with no large-scale accumulation observed. The derivatives market is persistently deleveraging, with traders prioritizing downside hedging protection and showing low willingness for directional long positions. Funding rates remain low, indicating a generally weak risk appetite. Institutional pressure is significant, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs are collectively in a state of unrealized losses, with continued net capital outflows and low willingness among institutions to increase positions.Glassnode states that the current market is undergoing a period of structural adjustment and capital contraction. The $60,000 level provides only temporary support, and there are no signs of recovery in spot orders, derivatives positions, or institutional capital. For a sustained upward trend to emerge, a significant restoration of confidence among buyers is required.
Glassnode: Hyperliquid long positions continue to rise amid BTC’s downtrend, increasing short squeeze risk
According to a report released by data analytics platform Glassnode (@glassnode), although BTC’s price remains significantly below its all-time high, traders on Hyperliquid are continuously increasing their long positions, buying the dip throughout the entire downward trend—building up growing potential for a short squeeze. Meanwhile, altcoin cycle signals have returned to “Altseason,” with selling pressure on altcoins tapering off; however, BTC remains under downward pressure, and the current market remains BTC-driven.
Glassnode: Long-Term Holders Not Experiencing Historical-Level BTC Stress, This Correction Far Below Deep Bear Market Levels
According to data released by Glassnode on platform X, the relative unrealized loss of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) briefly reached approximately 15% in early April. Compared to levels exceeding 75% during historical deep bear market cycles, the impact of this market correction on long-term holders is notably lighter.The analysis points out that while recent price pullbacks have caused some paper losses, the overall pressure remains far below historical cycle lows, indicating that the current decline has not yet posed a substantive test to the conviction of long-term holders. Structurally, this adjustment is more characteristic of mid-term volatility rather than a full-scale cyclical capitulation event.
Glassnode: BTC Rises to ~$82,000 in Its 20th Week, with On-Chain Activity and Derivatives Risk Appetite Rising in Tandem
Glassnode’s Week 20 BTC Market Report states that BTC rose last week from above $77,000 to below $82,000, with strengthening spot demand and futures activity and sustained buying absorbing pullbacks. The report notes rising Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), spot trading volume, futures open interest, and perpetual swap CVD—indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, price momentum slowed, and long funding rates declined, signaling a marginal cooling of bullish sentiment. In the options market, demand for downside protection decreased and open interest increased, yet the volatility skew widened, reflecting persistently high market uncertainty. On-chain metrics show increases in daily active addresses, entity-adjusted transaction volume, and total fees; profitability indicators improved, and the overall market structure continues to recover.
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Glassnode: Bitcoin's single-day closing gain marks the largest upward move since October 2023
Glassnode noted that the last time Bitcoin recorded such a significant daily closing gain was in February this year, which was mainly a rebound from the previous day's 14% decline. This rally was not a technical bounce following a crash; relative to its 30-day volatility, the current surge reached 5.8 standard deviations, marking the largest upward move since October 2023.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in "Capitulation Phase," Current Rebound Should Be Seen as a Local Bounce in the Bottoming Process
According to Odaily, Glassnode's latest report points out that Bitcoin's on-chain structure is still in the "capitulation phase," with the short-term holder cost basis having dropped to approximately $68,500, below the real market average of around $75,800. Meanwhile, the current relative unrealized loss peaked at roughly 25%, significantly lower than the over 60% level seen during capitulation phases in previous cycles, indicating that the market's loss severity in this cycle is relatively shallower but more widely distributed, which may require a longer period to complete the clearing process.Glassnode also stated that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio currently stands at 0.75, whereas historically, this indicator typically falls below 0.5 before seller exhaustion occurs. Therefore, true seller exhaustion has not yet emerged. Glassnode further noted that until this indicator breaks back above 2, any price rebound should be viewed more as a local bounce rather than a fundamental shift in market trend.Additionally, the 30-day directional premium in the perpetual futures market turned significantly negative during the recent decline but has now rebounded noticeably and re-entered positive territory. This suggests that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay a premium for long exposure, indicating that speculative risk appetite has improved somewhat. However, in contrast to the improvement in the perpetual futures market, the Coinbase Premium Index remains persistently negative, suggesting that demand in the U.S. spot market has yet to show a meaningful return.
Glassnode：约 80% 公开披露比特币储备的公司处于浮亏状态
Glassnode 表示，比特币现货价格已低于公开披露比特币储备公司的综合成本基础，相关公司中处于亏损状态的比例已升至约 80%。
Bitcoin touches $65,000, $56 million in leveraged short positions liquidated
Odaily News: Bitcoin briefly touched $65,000 on Tuesday, up 0.5% on the day and gaining more than 2% over the week, with a market cap approaching $1.3 trillion. Earlier, Bitcoin was hovering above $64,000 before rallying about $1,000 to $65,000 within an hour. Market data shows significant selling pressure near the $65,000 level. Data from crypto analytics platform Coinglass shows that Bitcoin's volatility over the past 24 hours led to $56 million in leveraged short positions being liquidated, along with an additional $4 million in long positions. Across the broader market during the same period, total long position liquidations amounted to $108 million. Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, but this drawdown of approximately 55% is shallower than the 75% to 80% seen in previous cycles, suggesting some buyers have already positioned for the next leg up. Blockchain analytics platform Glassnode noted that strong hands are accumulating Bitcoin, with conviction buyers recording the largest increase in holdings when prices fell to $60,000 in January this year. (Bitcoin.com News)
Glassnode Co-founder: BTC Implied Volatility at Historic Lows, but Options Market May Be Trapped in a "Low Vol Trap"
Odaily News, Glassnode Co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft stated that Bitcoin's (BTC) current low-volatility environment does not necessarily represent an investment opportunity, and the market may be forming a "vol value trap."Schultze-Kraft pointed out that BTC implied volatility currently sits in the lowest 2% range of its historical distribution, yet the volatility level priced by the options market remains approximately 1.5 times the actual market volatility. He noted that Glassnode's "vol value trap score" has reached 91/100, the highest level in over 3.5 years.Schultze-Kraft believes that while the market appears to be in an extremely low-volatility state on the surface, options prices have not fully reflected actual movements, and the volatility premium paid by investors may be relatively high. The indicator shows that the market is undergoing a rare phase of volatility compression. Historically, similar extreme low-volatility environments have often paved the way for subsequent volatility expansion, but the specific direction depends on capital flows, the macroeconomic environment, and market catalysts.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Spot Liquidity Weakness Coupled with ETF Outflows, Slowing Outflow Pace Signals Stabilization
Glassnode pointed out in its latest market report that although Bitcoin has rebounded slightly after retreating from the $65,000 zone last week, it remains clearly range-bound overall. Spot trading volume and on-chain transaction throughput continue to shrink, with market liquidity and participation willingness at low levels. The derivatives market also shows caution, with leverage expanding moderately, but aggressive taker activity in perpetual contracts continues to lean toward the sell side, reflecting more aggressive distribution behavior. Funding rates remain positive, indicating lingering long-side inclination, while the options market continues to price downside protection at a premium above actual volatility levels.Institutional demand has simultaneously weakened, with declining spot ETF volumes compounded by net outflows. Institutional positions are near their cost basis, limiting unrealized profit potential for regulated investors and causing a temporary pause in accumulation momentum. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a large portion of supply in loss and realized losses consistently exceeding profit-taking.The report also noted that the broader pace of capital outflows has begun to slow, which could be an early signal that selling pressure is stabilizing. The overall market remains caught between short-term selling pressure and relatively resilient long-term holdings. Weak spot liquidity, deteriorating institutional flows, and elevated loss realization collectively point to a continuation of the consolidation pattern, while the slowing outflow pace suggests the market may be approaching a more balanced state before its next directional move.