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QCP: BTC Monthly Gain Exceeds 14%; Geopolitical and Security Incidents Disrupt Market Sentiment

QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.

Balancer attacker has exchanged 21,000 ETH for 617.43 BTC over the past three days

according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a Balancer attacker has exchanged 21,000 ETH for 617.43 BTC over the past three days, worth $48.72 million. The attacker currently still holds 1,000 ETH, worth $2.32 million, and may conduct further sell-offs.

Bitcoin’s Quantum Security Crisis: 6.9 Million BTC at Risk, Governance Challenges Impede Response

According to CoinDesk, while quantum computers cannot break Bitcoin’s mining mechanism or blockchain ledger, they could potentially crack the elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) that secures wallet ownership—using Shor’s algorithm. Currently, approximately 6.9 million BTC—roughly one-third of the total supply—are at potential risk because their public keys are already visible on-chain; this includes Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated early holdings of about 1 million BTC. Transactions generated after Ethereum’s 2021 Taproot upgrade are similarly exposed due to public key disclosure. Ethereum has maintained an official post-quantum migration plan since 2018, with four full-time teams and over ten independent development groups, and operates a dedicated progress website at pq.ethereum.org. In contrast, Bitcoin currently lacks a unified roadmap for quantum resistance: existing proposals such as BIP-360 and BitMEX Research’s detection framework have not gained broad support among core developers. Prominent Bitcoin advocate Nic Carter has bluntly labeled Bitcoin’s quantum response “the worst,” while Blockstream CEO Adam Back acknowledges that current quantum systems remain confined to laboratory settings—but still endorses deploying optional upgrade paths in advance. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s decentralized governance culture makes coordinating large-scale security upgrades extremely difficult, and resolving historical issues—such as how to handle Satoshi’s holdings—presents a particularly thorny dilemma. A related Google paper warns that once quantum attacks become feasible, the window for effective response may already have closed.

Researcher cracks 15-bit ECC key, earns 1 Bitcoin reward

According to Odaily, independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli was awarded the Q-Day Prize and 1 Bitcoin by quantum security startup Project Eleven for successfully cracking the encryption keys protecting Bitcoin. Giancarlo Lelli utilized publicly available quantum hardware and a variant of Shor's algorithm to crack a 15-bit encryption key among 32,767 possibilities. The difficulty of this quantum attack is 512 times greater than the 6-bit key record set in September 2025. Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden stated that the resource requirements for such attacks continue to decline, with approximately 6.9 million Bitcoins currently held in vulnerable static addresses, including 1 million Bitcoins owned by Satoshi Nakamoto. The Bitcoin network has proposed BIP-360 to introduce quantum-resistant address types, while platforms such as Ethereum, Ripple, and Tron have also begun releasing plans for transitioning to post-quantum defenses.

Balancer attacker-linked address transferred 5,609 ETH worth $13 million to THORChain over the past 9 hours

according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, an address linked to the Balancer attacker has transferred 5,609 ETH, worth $13 million, to THORChain over the past 9 hours. In November 2025, Balancer was hacked for over $116 million, a incident with the same suspected culprit as the Aave attack, both pointing to the North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group. Both entities have recently been frequently using Tornado Cash for money laundering.

The Balancer hacker has currently converted 14,300 ETH into 419.3 BTC.

According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), the hacker who stole approximately $98 million worth of assets from Balancer last November has been continuously swapping ETH for BTC via THORChain. To date, the hacker has swapped a total of 14,300 ETH for 419.3 BTC (approximately $32.51 million). The hacker currently holds 7,700 ETH on the Ethereum chain and 419.3 BTC on the Bitcoin chain, with a combined value of approximately $50.4 million. Since the price of ETH has fallen significantly from around $3,600 at the time of the theft, the value of the hacker’s holdings has shrunk by nearly half—from the original $98 million.

Balancer attacker exchanges 13,191 ETH for 386 BTC

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the Balancer attacker (0xa6d6...BDaA) exchanged 13,191 ETH for 386.52 BTC, worth $30.54 million, over the past 15 hours. The attacker currently still holds 8,000 ETH, valued at $18.52 million.

Balancer hacker has swapped 7,000 ETH for 204.7 BTC, worth approximately $15.88 million

According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), the hacker who stole approximately $98 million in assets from Balancer last November is today exchanging ETH for BTC via THORChain. So far, 7,000 ETH have been swapped for 204.7 BTC—valued at roughly $15.88 million—and the process continues. Additionally, it has been disclosed that this address currently holds 15,000 ETH on Ethereum, valued at approximately $34.65 million, and 204.7 BTC on Bitcoin.

Balancer Attacker Transfers 100 ETH—Worth ~$233,000—After 5-Month Dormancy

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), the Balancer hacker’s address has reactivated after five months of dormancy, transferring 100 ETH (approximately $233,000) to a new wallet and beginning fund transfers via ThorChain. The hacker currently still holds 21,900 ETH, valued at approximately $51.13 million.

Mantle plans to provide Aave with a 30,000 ETH loan to help mitigate its bad debt risk.

According to information on the governance forum page, Mantle plans to provide Aave with a loan of 30,000 ETH to help it address the non-performing loan risk triggered by the recent attack. According to analyst Yujin’s statistics, confirmed rescue funds now cover a shortfall of approximately 43,500 ETH.

Balancer attacker moves 100 ETH and launders through Tornado Cash, still holds 21,900 ETH

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, the Balancer attacker, dormant for five months, has transferred 100 ETH (approximately $233,000) to a new address and begun transferring funds through Tornado Cash.The attacker currently still holds 21,900 ETH, valued at approximately $51.13 million.

JPMorgan: Frequent DeFi hacks and stagnant TVL continue to suppress institutional participation

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts noted in their latest report that ongoing DeFi security vulnerabilities and stagnant growth in total value locked (TVL) continue to constrain institutional enthusiasm for the DeFi sector. Recently, Kelp DAO’s cross-chain bridge suffered a major attack, during which the attacker minted $292 million worth of uncollateralized rsETH tokens and borrowed real ETH on Aave, resulting in approximately $230 million in bad debt. This caused DeFi TVL to evaporate by roughly $20 billion within several days. LayerZero and blockchain security researchers have attributed this attack to the North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group; some of the stolen funds have been frozen, while the rest remain in circulation. Analysts also pointed out that DeFi TVL denominated in ETH has remained range-bound for an extended period, raising market concerns about whether DeFi can achieve organic growth sufficient to support institutional adoption. Furthermore, following each security incident, users tend to shift funds into USDT as a safe-haven asset—yet this trend has not yet significantly driven USDT’s market capitalization growth.

Mantle plans to lend 30,000 ETH to Aave, with confirmed bailout funds covering approximately 43,500 ETH

According to information from the governance forum, Bybit’s public chain Mantle plans to lend 30,000 ETH to Aave to address the bad debt risks arising from recent security incidents.According to statistics from crypto analyst Ember (@EmberCN), the confirmed scale of bailout funds is estimated to cover a shortfall of approximately 43,500 ETH.

rsETH Hack Causes 68,900 ETH Shortfall; DeFi United Raises 13,500 ETH for Industry自救

According to on-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN), the rsETH incident on April 18 resulted in a funding shortfall of approximately 68,900 ETH (around $160 million): the hacker collateralized rsETH to borrow 99,600 ETH; after Arbitrum recovered 30,700 ETH, the remaining funds were fully converted by the hacker into BTC. The incident has now entered the remediation phase. Aave is coordinating the establishment of a “DeFi United” relief fund, which has so far received cumulative donations totaling 13,500 ETH (approximately $31.45 million). Donors include Lido Finance (2,500 stETH), ether.fi Foundation (5,000 ETH), Aave founder Stani Kulechov (5,000 ETH), Golem Foundation (1,000 ETH), as well as LayerZero and Ink Foundation (amounts undisclosed).

Aave Pauses rsETH Reserve Operations on Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Other Networks to Prevent Liquidation Risk from Spreading

Aave released the latest update on the rsETH security incident on the X platform, announcing that it has paused rsETH reserve-related operations on the Ethereum mainnet as well as networks including Arbitrum, Base, Mantle, and Linea. This measure is intended to prevent excess aETHrsETH from being withdrawn, thereby pushing positions close to the 95% liquidation threshold. This action aims to preserve as much capital as possible and reduce systemic risk while the asset recovery plan is underway. Aave stated that further progress and resolution plans will be continuously disclosed to the community.

Aave Suspends rsETH Reserve Operations on Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Other Networks

Aave announced the latest developments regarding the rsETH security incident on X, stating that rsETH-related reserve operations have been suspended on Ethereum Mainnet and on networks including Arbitrum, Base, Mantle, and Linea. This measure aims to preserve as much capital as possible and mitigate systemic risk while the asset recovery plan is underway. Aave stated that it will continue to disclose subsequent updates and resolution plans to the community.

Lido Discloses Impact of Kelp Security Incident; ~9% Exposure of EarnETH Affected

Lido has released an update regarding the Kelp security incident, stating that its Earn-series vaults are working with the management team to address the issue, focusing on two key risk areas: rsETH exposure and tightening liquidity in lending markets. Lido emphasizes that its core staking protocol remains unaffected, and both stETH and wstETH remain secure and stable. Currently, only the EarnETH vault holds approximately 9% of its TVL in rsETH exposure; related deposits and withdrawals have been suspended by the management team pending resolution. Of the ~$70 million in ETH stolen in the earlier attack, roughly $70 million has already been recovered; asset recovery and loss allocation efforts are ongoing. To mitigate liquidity pressure, the management team has reduced leverage and optimized position structures, significantly decreasing wETH debt exposure. Should losses ultimately materialize, EarnETH will activate its $3 million “first-loss protection mechanism,” funded by the DAO. Other vaults remain unaffected: DVV and EarnUSD are operating normally. The GGV sub-vault is currently experiencing negative yields due to a combination of recursive staking strategies and rising borrowing rates, but active adjustments are underway. Users’ previously submitted withdrawal requests will be processed at pre-incident valuations.

KelpDAO hacker converted nearly all 75,700 ETH into BTC within 36 hours

According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), the KelpDAO hacker, over a period of approximately one and a half days, has converted nearly all 75,700 ETH (valued at roughly $175 million) on Ethereum into BTC—primarily via the cross-chain protocol THORChain. This money-laundering activity generated approximately $800 million in trading volume and $910,000 in platform fees for THORChain.

The KelpDAO attacker bridged funds to Arbitrum and then transferred them to TRON.

According to on-chain analyst PeckShield (@PeckShieldAlert), the KelpDAO attacker has transferred ETH from Ethereum to Arbitrum via the Across Protocol, swapped it for USDT, and then routed the funds to TRON DAO via LayerZero.

Umbra Protocol’s frontend suspended to assist with recovery efforts following the hack

According to an official post by Umbra (@UmbraCash), the privacy payment protocol Umbra was used to transfer funds related to a recent hacking incident, involving 349 ETH (approximately $800,000). Umbra stated that, as its privacy address system primarily protects the recipient’s identity—not the sender’s—it offers limited practical assistance to hackers attempting to obscure the origin of stolen funds. All stolen funds remain identifiable and traceable. The team has been in active communication and collaboration with security researchers. Umbra also noted that the protocol is powered entirely by autonomous smart contracts; thus, the team cannot prevent anyone from using the contracts or self-hosted frontend versions. In support of fund recovery efforts, the team placed the hosted frontend into maintenance mode at 6:45 a.m. ET on April 21. Access will be restored once it is confirmed that doing so will not impede the recovery process. The protocol itself continues operating normally, and all funds held within privacy addresses remain secure.