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Odaily News, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that while the recent U.S. employment report appears concerning on the surface, deeper economic trends are shifting. Productivity gains, the expanding application of AI, and potential deflationary pressures could become the main market themes moving forward.Wood noted that the U.S. federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is currently around 5.6%, approaching levels seen during the Reagan era in the 1980s. She believes that if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate as ARK anticipates, that ratio could fall to about 5% by year-end, although most economic forecasters view this target as difficult to achieve.On inflation, Wood believes the market is underestimating deflationary risks. She noted that recent inflation data has consistently come in below expectations, with the June CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month, PPI down 0.3% month-over-month, and core PCE rising just 0.1% month-over-month. She argues that companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools may face greater pricing pressure and competitive risks in the future.Wood is also bullish on the U.S. dollar. ARK's data model based on Kalshi prediction markets suggests the dollar index could rise to 102.6 this year. She pushed back against the view that "overseas capital is selling off U.S. assets," pointing out that Japan's recent currency market intervention primarily involved selling euros and buying yen, rather than selling dollars.In energy markets, Wood believes a global crude oil supply glut is taking shape. She noted that the UAE's production has risen to historic highs after leaving OPEC, and further downside in oil prices could act as a deflationary driver for the global economy.Regarding the AI investment boom, Wood said concerns about an AI bubble are overblown, and the current growth in capital expenditure likely represents the early stage of a long-term technological revolution rather than a short-term speculative cycle.In the crypto asset space, Wood said Bitcoin's performance relative to gold is stabilizing, and believes that as the "agentic commerce" economy develops, Bitcoin and stablecoins could become the biggest beneficiaries.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in its latest annual assessment of Nepal that, despite Nepal’s comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency transactions and mining since 2021, inflows of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins grew rapidly between 2019 and 2024—peaking at over 13% of GDP in 2021 and rebounding to approximately 8% in 2024, with cross-border flows amounting to roughly 5% of GDP. The IMF recommends that Nepal establish a cryptocurrency regulatory framework aligned with international standards, strengthen monitoring of stablecoins and unbacked crypto assets to prevent circumvention of capital controls and large-scale deposit outflows, and urges Nepal to complete the FATF action plan and exit the “gray list.”
According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.
QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.