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Analysis: Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 After Hitting High, ETF Outflows and Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Market Sentiment

Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 mark, ending a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, with the market's rebound momentum from the February low showing signs of cooling.The US added 115,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, surpassing the expected 62,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Although the data was relatively strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty. Instead, it reinforced the expectation that "energy-driven inflation limits the scope for rate cuts."In terms of capital flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $277 million on Thursday, ending a cumulative inflow streak of $1.69 billion. Ethereum ETFs also recorded net outflows of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling in institutional risk appetite.On the geopolitical front, tensions between Iran and the US have reignited, prompting the market to reprice the risk associated with the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have rebounded, partially offsetting the previous support that risk assets had gained from falling oil prices.The derivatives market, meanwhile, reflects a more prolonged hawkish outlook. Interest rate futures pricing suggests over a 50% probability of rate hikes persisting beyond 2027, pushing the potential easing cycle back to 2028.On-chain data shows that the recent Bitcoin rally was primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining low. Funding rates have stayed moderate, indicating a relatively weak market momentum structure. Analysts suggest that if retail capital does not return, BTC may still face the risk of retesting the $75,000–$78,000 support range. (The Block)

South Korea Enacts Amendment to Strengthen Regulation of Cross-Border Transfers of Cryptographic Assets

According to The Block, South Korea’s National Assembly has passed an amendment to the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act, requiring enterprises engaged in cross-border inflows and outflows of crypto assets to register with the Minister of Economy and Finance to strengthen systematic oversight of cross-border crypto asset flows. The amendment introduces a new definition of “virtual asset transfer business,” covering activities involving the transfer of crypto assets between South Korea and overseas jurisdictions through buying, selling, or exchanging—such as those conducted by cryptocurrency exchanges and digital asset custodians. Separately, it is reported that South Korea’s Financial Services Commission plans to extend the Travel Rule to all crypto transactions; South Korea also intends to impose a 22% tax on crypto asset gains exceeding 2.5 million KRW starting January 2027.

The Arbitrum DAO voted to release $70 million worth of ETH, but a court order has temporarily frozen the transfer.

According to The Block, the Arbitrum DAO voted to release 30,765.6 ETH (approximately $70 million), previously frozen, to support the DeFi United initiative—aimed at offsetting Kelp DAO’s $292 million exploit loss last month. The vote passed with 90.96% support (182.2 million votes). The attack was allegedly carried out by the North Korean Lazarus hacking group, which exploited a vulnerability in LayerZero’s OFT cross-chain bridge—a single-validator configuration—which allowed attackers to steal 116,500 rsETH and pledge most of the stolen assets as collateral on Aave, resulting in roughly $190 million in bad debt. DeFi United has secured contributions from multiple parties, including 30,000 ETH from Consensys and Joseph Lubin, a 30,000-ETH loan from Mantle, and 5,000 ETH from LayerZero.

JPMorgan: Strategy's Bitcoin Purchases Could Reach $30 Billion This Year

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Saylor, has been accelerating its Bitcoin acquisitions this year. JPMorgan analysts stated that if the current pace continues, the company's total Bitcoin purchases for the year could reach approximately $30 billion. So far this year, Strategy has added 145,834 Bitcoin to its holdings, valued at around $11 billion. Analysis indicates that a significant portion of the company's purchases occurred when Bitcoin was below its average cost of roughly $75,000, reflecting a more "opportunistic" allocation strategy.At the current rate, Strategy's total Bitcoin purchases in 2026 could significantly exceed the approximately $22 billion levels seen in 2024 and 2025. Analysts noted that the company has re-accelerated its buying since April, suggesting its strategy is becoming more dependent on market conditions and financing availability. Meanwhile, Strategy's stock continues to trade at a premium of approximately 26% to its net asset value (NAV), providing favorable conditions for the company to continue purchasing Bitcoin through equity and debt financing. The company currently holds approximately 818,334 BTC, with a total value exceeding $65 billion. (The Block)

AWS partners with Coinbase and Stripe to launch AI agent stablecoin payment functionality, enabling microtransactions using USDC

According to The Block, Amazon Web Services (AWS) has partnered with Coinbase and Stripe to launch Amazon Bedrock AgentCore Payments, enabling AI agents to conduct transactions using stablecoins. Coinbase stated that developers can build “agent-based payment” solutions using the x402 protocol, allowing AI agents to make micro-payments in USDC. This feature enables AI agents to instantly pay for web content, APIs, MCP servers, and other agents. AWS noted that developers can choose between Coinbase and Stripe wallets and fund those wallets using either stablecoins or fiat currency.

TD Cowen Sees STRC Financing Boosting BTC Yield, Raises Strategy Price Target

investment bank TD Cowen on Thursday raised its price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $395 from $385, believing the market underestimates the capital efficiency of the company’s bitcoin accumulation strategy following its increased issuance of STRC perpetual preferred stock. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete indicated that the new target still implies over 110% upside from Strategy’s Wednesday closing price of $186.82.The analysis notes that Strategy is gradually reducing common equity financing and increasingly relying on STRC perpetual preferred stock, which yields 11.5%, to fund bitcoin purchases. STRC is also a core component of Michael Saylor’s “42/42 plan,” which aims to raise $42 billion each through equity and fixed-income instruments over three years.TD Cowen believes the market underestimates the effect of the STRC structure on boosting “BTC Yield,” a metric measuring the company’s growth in bitcoin holdings per fully diluted share. The report raised its BTC Yield forecast for Strategy’s fiscal 2026 to 18.2% from 16.7%, and for 2027 to 9.6% from 5.4%. Additionally, analysts argue that concerns about Strategy being a “perpetual dilution machine” are exaggerated. The company’s annual preferred stock dividend payments, currently around $1.5 billion, represent only about 2.2% of the value of its 818,334 BTC reserve.In TD Cowen’s base case scenario, bitcoin is expected to reach $140,000 by the end of 2026. In a bull case, bitcoin could rise to $175,000, with Strategy potentially purchasing over $5 billion in bitcoin per quarter. (The Block)

CoinShares: Global crypto ETPs saw $117.8 million in net inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of net inflows.

According to The Block, CoinShares data shows that global crypto investment products managed by asset management firms—including BlackRock, Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, ProShares, and 21Shares—recorded $117.8 million in net inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of net inflows. Cumulative net inflows over the five-week period exceeded $4 billion, though this week’s inflows were the lowest in the streak. As of Friday, total assets under management stood at $155 billion, essentially flat from the prior period.

analysis: Bitcoin has broken through the key resistance zone that was suppressing its price, and may maintain a strong volatility in the short term

OdailyOdaily reported that Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 mark, rising approximately 2.6% in 24 hours to $80,150, driving the overall crypto market higher. ETH rose 3.6%, and XRP rose 2%. Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, stated that this breakthrough shattered the key resistance zone that had been suppressing prices over the weekend, with short-term momentum clearly turning stronger. Meanwhile, Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research, noted that the upward price movement was accompanied by a technical short squeeze.On the capital front, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for the fifth consecutive week, attracting approximately $154 million last week, indicating continuously strengthening institutional allocation demand. Analysts believe that if the capital inflow trend continues and is compounded by macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin may maintain strong volatility in the short term. The market will closely monitor the impact of subsequent economic data and shifts in risk sentiment on the price trend. (The Block)

Strategy's BTC Holdings Market Cap Surpasses $65 Billion, Q1 Earnings Expected This Week

Odaily Strategy founder Michael Saylor posted on X yesterday stating that the company will suspend its routine weekly Bitcoin purchase plan this week, marking the second time this year it has paused weekly accumulation.To date, Strategy holds a total of 818,334 BTC, representing approximately 3.9% of Bitcoin's total supply. Data from Saylortracker shows that as Bitcoin staged a strong rebound today, breaking through the $80,000 mark, the total market value of BTC held by Strategy has returned to above $65 billion, currently standing at $65.74 billion. The average cost price is $75,537, with an unrealized profit of $3.926 billion.Strategy is expected to announce its Q1 earnings on Tuesday, with the market anticipating a loss per share of $18.98, higher than the loss of $16.38 per share in the same period last year. Its ongoing coin purchases are primarily financed through stock (MSTR) and perpetual preferred stock. Among these, the high-dividend product STRC (annualized yield approximately 11.5%) has raised concerns among some analysts regarding structural risks, though others argue that this model can convert yield demands into long-term Bitcoin exposure. (The Block)

Benchmark refutes "circular financing" allegations: Strategy STRC bitcoin model is not a Ponzi structure

market分歧 has widened regarding Strategy's financing model of continuously accumulating Bitcoin through its preferred stock STRC. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer stated in his latest report that the interpretation of the STRC model as a "circular financing or Ponzi structure" is a "serious misreading" and emphasized that the mechanism is an "intentionally designed and sustainable capital framework," with the core logic being to convert market demand for yield into long-term Bitcoin exposure.According to an SEC 8-K filing, Strategy raised approximately $3.5 billion in the first three weeks of April, with over 85% coming from STRC issuance. Subsequently, it made three consecutive purchases within the following three weeks, acquiring a total of 51,364 Bitcoins worth approximately $3.9 billion. Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings have now increased to 818,334 BTC, with a market value of around $62.5 billion, and it has recently returned to an unrealized profit of about $700 million.Benchmark believes that this structure does not rely on continuous issuance to sustain itself and could even sell a portion of its Bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends if necessary. However, significant market skepticism remains, with some arguing that selling financed assets to pay dividends could be perceived as a risk signal, potentially triggering broader market pressure. (The Block)

Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution

Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)

Analysis: Bitcoin Holds at $77,000 Range, Powell's "Final FOMC" Adds Market Uncertainty

Odaily Bitcoin remained consolidating above $77,000 on Wednesday, with markets cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. According to market data, Bitcoin fluctuated within the range of approximately $75,689 to $77,837 during the session, and is currently trading around $77,100.This FOMC meeting is seen as a pivotal event. Markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but the real focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will signal a "higher-for-longer" hawkish stance. Additionally, this meeting may be his last as Fed Chair, with markets simultaneously pricing in uncertainty regarding policy direction and potential power transitions.On the capital front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a reversal after nine consecutive days of net inflows. SoSoValue data shows that on April 28, ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $89.68 million. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day outflow of about $112 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs also logged net outflows of $21.8 million.On-chain data also signals caution. CryptoQuant noted that on April 27, exchange net inflows reached 9,905 BTC, the largest single-day inflow in nearly 30 days. Exchange reserves have also rebounded recently. If these inflows are not quickly absorbed, prices could retest the support range of $74,000–$75,000.On the macroeconomic front, fluctuations in crude oil prices and shifts in the Middle East energy landscape continue to influence inflation expectations. Some analysts believe this could limit the Fed's room for future easing. Meanwhile, market liquidity continues to weaken, with institutional trading volumes and perpetual contract activity both at low levels. This means any policy surprise could amplify price volatility.Overall, Bitcoin remains in a "low liquidity + high event risk" structure and may continue to oscillate within the $72,000 to $80,000 range in the short term, awaiting further clarity on the Fed's policy path. (The Block)

Stable Sea partners with WisdomTree to integrate tokenized money market funds into its enterprise stablecoin management platform

According to The Block, stablecoin management firm Stable Sea has announced a partnership with asset management firm WisdomTree to directly integrate WisdomTree’s tokenized money market fund WTGXX into its enterprise payment and treasury management platform. Stable Sea users can now one-click transfer idle stablecoin balances into the WTGXX fund to earn yield (currently offering an approximate 7-day annualized yield of 3.5%) and redeem those holdings at any time back into stablecoins for global payments.

First batch of prediction market ETFs may launch in the US next week

Odaily reports, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, the first batch of prediction market ETFs in the United States could launch next week. Roundhill has submitted updated documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, aiming to activate six prediction market ETFs on May 5. The products will be designed around event contracts related to the U.S. presidential and congressional elections.Additionally, similar products submitted by GraniteShares and Bitwise may also be launched around the same time. James Seyffart believes this reflects a growing trend of combining event contracts with ETF products. (The Block)

Suspected Block Street team address transfers 5 million BSB to Bybit, valued at approximately $3.65 million

According to Arkham data, a suspected Block Street team address has transferred tokens to a Bybit deposit address (0xEcB8...0D51) over the past two hours, with a cumulative transfer of 5 million BSB tokens, valued at approximately $3,653,400. The tokens in this sending address previously originated from the BSB team's multi-signature address.Currently, the circulating supply of BSB is 207.75 million tokens, and the total amount received by this address accounts for approximately 2.41% of the circulating supply. BSB is currently trading at $0.7595, down 9.11% in the past 24 hours, with a circulating market cap of approximately $157.8 million.

Bernstein: Cryptocurrency Market Shows Structural Strength; Bitcoin Poised to Enter a Longer-Term Bull Market

According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated in their latest report that the fundamentals of the crypto market are continuously improving. Bitcoin’s recent low of $60,000 has formed a clear bottom, and with the current price approaching $80,000, a longer-term structural bull market is likely, driven by institutional demand. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani highlighted the following key drivers: • Ongoing expansion of institutional channels: Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab’s spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading platform have both recently launched; approximately 60% of Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for over one year, indicating a stabilizing holder structure; • Persistent accumulation by Strategy: Its STRC perpetual preferred stock product has attracted yield-oriented investors, and its current holdings stand at 818,334 BTC; • Stablecoin demand hits an all-time high: Stablecoin supply has surpassed $30 billion, decoupling from the crypto market’s price cycle and reflecting sustained real-world payment and settlement demand; • Tokenized real-world assets accelerating growth: Tokenized private credit and Treasury assets now total $34.5 billion, representing a 110% year-on-year increase. Bernstein also cautioned that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk, though it expects the blockchain ecosystem to have ample time to complete the transition to post-quantum security.

TD Cowen reiterates its Buy rating; Smarter Web Company remains the only scaled Bitcoin treasury company in the UK.

According to The Block, TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete reiterated their “Buy” rating on UK-listed Smarter Web Company, maintaining their price target at £1 (approximately $1.36). The analysts noted that the company recently acquired additional bitcoin for approximately £57,000 (about $77,000), effectively lowering its marginal holding cost. Its leverage ratio of roughly 8% is considered relatively conservative compared to peers. Smarter Web currently holds 2,750 BTC, making it the largest corporate bitcoin holder in the UK and the 27th-largest publicly disclosed bitcoin treasury globally. However, with bitcoin’s current price hovering around $77,600—significantly below the company’s average acquisition price of $110,800—its holdings are sitting on an unrealized loss of approximately $91.1 million, representing a decline of roughly 30%.

JPMorgan: Frequent DeFi hacks and stagnant TVL continue to suppress institutional participation

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts noted in their latest report that ongoing DeFi security vulnerabilities and stagnant growth in total value locked (TVL) continue to constrain institutional enthusiasm for the DeFi sector. Recently, Kelp DAO’s cross-chain bridge suffered a major attack, during which the attacker minted $292 million worth of uncollateralized rsETH tokens and borrowed real ETH on Aave, resulting in approximately $230 million in bad debt. This caused DeFi TVL to evaporate by roughly $20 billion within several days. LayerZero and blockchain security researchers have attributed this attack to the North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group; some of the stolen funds have been frozen, while the rest remain in circulation. Analysts also pointed out that DeFi TVL denominated in ETH has remained range-bound for an extended period, raising market concerns about whether DeFi can achieve organic growth sufficient to support institutional adoption. Furthermore, following each security incident, users tend to shift funds into USDT as a safe-haven asset—yet this trend has not yet significantly driven USDT’s market capitalization growth.

Analysis: Bitcoin Approaches Key $80,000 Level, Institutional Funds and Whale Buying Provide Support, but Breakthrough Still Awaits Confirmation

Bitcoin is once again approaching the $80,000 mark. Market analysis suggests that this level has become a key resistance point to test the strength of the current rebound. On the capital front, continued institutional inflows are providing support. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for six consecutive days, while Ethereum spot ETFs have also seen inflows for nine straight days, indicating a recovery in risk appetite. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have cumulatively added approximately 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly increase since 2013, and exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest point in seven years.In terms of on-chain data, Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has reclaimed the "Realized Price" (approximately $78,100). However, the cost basis for short-term holders sits around $80,100, forming a direct pressure zone. Should the price reach this range, over 54% of short-term investors would be in profit, a scenario historically associated with the peak of a rebound phase. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating a significant short position. Given the ongoing improvement in spot demand, this could provide short-squeeze momentum for a subsequent upward move.In summary, while the capital structure and market resilience have improved, the $80,000 level remains a key watershed. The market has yet to confirm whether it can transition from a resistance level to a support level. (The Block)

U.S. Crypto Market Structure Legislation Delayed; No April Senate Banking Committee Hearing Expected

According to The Block, Thom Tillis, a Republican Senator from North Carolina and a key negotiator on the Senate Banking Committee, stated that the committee does not expect to schedule hearings to revise and vote on the crypto market structure bill within April. The primary legislative disagreement currently centers on how to handle rewards associated with stablecoins: the current draft proposes banning rewards for idle stablecoin accounts while permitting returns generated from trading activity. Banking representatives fear such returns could draw deposits away from traditional banks, whereas crypto firms argue that restricting rewards would stifle innovation. Tillis suggested postponing the committee’s review to May. Previously, Senator Bernie Moreno warned that if the bill fails to pass before May, “digital asset legislation will stall indefinitely.”