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Project Overview
Basis is a stable cryptocurrency protocol with an algorithmic central bank designed to remove volatility. It is designed to keep prices stable by algorithmically adjusting the supply, similar to how central banks buy and sell fiscal debt to stabilize purchasing power. When demand is increasing, the blockchain will create more Basis, with the expanded supply designed to bring the Basis price back down. Conversely, when demand is decreasing, the blockchain will buy back Basis, with the contracted supply designed to restore the Basis price. Following intervention by the U.S. SEC, Basis was shut down in December 2018.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Attempting to Reclaim Active Supply Cost Basis, ~$70,400 Becomes Key Level
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently attempting to reclaim the "Active Supply Cost Basis" level.Darkfost noted that active supply refers to all BTC that has been transferred at least once within the past 7 years. By excluding long-dormant Bitcoin, a more accurate average cost basis that aligns with the current market structure can be obtained, with its Realized Price standing at approximately $70,400.He stated that the last time Bitcoin successfully reclaimed this level was in early April, before the market fell back below this zone again in early June, with sellers reasserting dominance.Darkfost said that if BTC can sustain its position above the active supply cost basis this time, it could signal the market is forming a longer-term uptrend, rather than the brief breakout that lasted only about two months previously.This metric is commonly used by the market to observe changes in long-term holder costs and Bitcoin market cycle status. Whether BTC can firmly hold near the $70,400 level will become a key indicator for future bullish and bearish forces.
Analyst: ETH Whales' Average Cost Basis Concentrated Between $1,900 and $2,400
Murphy stated on the X platform that a statistical analysis of entities holding more than 100 ETH reveals that the average cost basis for cohorts holding 100–1,000 ETH, 1,000–10,000 ETH, 10,000–100,000 ETH, and over 100,000 ETH is approximately $1,900, $2,000, $2,100, and $2,400, respectively. This indicates that the average holding cost for high-net-worth individuals and whale entities is mainly concentrated in the $1,900–$2,400 range.Murphy noted that when the ETH price falls below the average holding cost of high-net-worth individuals and whale entities, one could begin dollar-cost averaging, and stop once the price returns to the cost band. Combined with the LTH-NUPL indicator, this strategy has achieved a win rate of nearly 99.99% over the past 10 years.
Glassnode Warns of Market Liquidity Pressure: BTC Three-Month Futures Basis Hits Historically Rare Low
Odaily News On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the yield on Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a trend that has now persisted for several months.Glassnode pointed out that there has only been one similar instance in history where the duration of this condition came close to the current one, namely the period from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.The firm stated that the prolonged slump in the futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall depth and trading volume of the market.Analysts believe that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and demand for arbitrage funds. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it implies that investors are earning insufficient additional returns for the risk taken by holding Bitcoin futures, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market, thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity.
Analyst: Bitcoin Has Fallen Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis for Over 9 Months, Bear Market Characteristics Have Not Yet Faded
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the Bitcoin price has been below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, such prolonged phases of short-term holder losses are often highly correlated with bear market cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $70,700 and continues to act as a resistance level above. The market trend in May already reflected this pressure, when BTC surged to near $82,000 to test the region before quickly encountering a pullback.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Remains in Late Bottoming Phase, Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure and ETF Net Outflows Have Not Yet Eased
Glassnode's latest weekly report states that Bitcoin has consistently traded below the Realized Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is advancing, it is not yet complete. On-chain data shows that Long-Term Holder loss realization accounts for 43% of total Realized Value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not yet significantly cooled.
Eric Balchunas: SPYM's Expense Ratio is 2 Basis Points, VOO Did Not Appear on the Relevant List
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on platform X, expressing some surprise that VOO did not appear on the list. He noted that "SPYM & Chill" doesn't have the same ring to it, but he will make do. SPYM's expense ratio is 2 basis points; even the government is focused on costs.
Related news
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Attempting to Reclaim Active Supply Cost Basis, ~$70,400 Becomes Key Level
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently attempting to reclaim the "Active Supply Cost Basis" level.Darkfost noted that active supply refers to all BTC that has been transferred at least once within the past 7 years. By excluding long-dormant Bitcoin, a more accurate average cost basis that aligns with the current market structure can be obtained, with its Realized Price standing at approximately $70,400.He stated that the last time Bitcoin successfully reclaimed this level was in early April, before the market fell back below this zone again in early June, with sellers reasserting dominance.Darkfost said that if BTC can sustain its position above the active supply cost basis this time, it could signal the market is forming a longer-term uptrend, rather than the brief breakout that lasted only about two months previously.This metric is commonly used by the market to observe changes in long-term holder costs and Bitcoin market cycle status. Whether BTC can firmly hold near the $70,400 level will become a key indicator for future bullish and bearish forces.
Analyst: ETH Whales' Average Cost Basis Concentrated Between $1,900 and $2,400
Murphy stated on the X platform that a statistical analysis of entities holding more than 100 ETH reveals that the average cost basis for cohorts holding 100–1,000 ETH, 1,000–10,000 ETH, 10,000–100,000 ETH, and over 100,000 ETH is approximately $1,900, $2,000, $2,100, and $2,400, respectively. This indicates that the average holding cost for high-net-worth individuals and whale entities is mainly concentrated in the $1,900–$2,400 range.Murphy noted that when the ETH price falls below the average holding cost of high-net-worth individuals and whale entities, one could begin dollar-cost averaging, and stop once the price returns to the cost band. Combined with the LTH-NUPL indicator, this strategy has achieved a win rate of nearly 99.99% over the past 10 years.
CryptoQuant Founder: CME Hedge Funds Rarely Turn Net Long on Bitcoin Futures
Odaily News, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform, stating that hedge funds on CME have turned net long on Bitcoin futures. This situation is relatively rare. Basis trading keeps them structurally short, which is why this chart has been red for years. In a net long position, arbitrage trading is not possible. Institutional investors are betting on an upward movement.
Study: US Taxpayer Virtual Currency Reporting Rate Only 32% to 56%, IRS New Rule 1099-DA Accelerates Compliance Tightening
According to US CNBC, the latest study published in the academic journal "Review of Accounting Studies" shows that among U.S. taxpayers holding virtual currency, the proportion actually reporting transactions to the federal government is only 32% to 56%. As the IRS mandates intermediaries to submit the virtual currency tax form "Form 1099-DA" starting from 2025, discrepancies between industry reports and taxpayer filings will be more easily identified by authorities. In the initial year, this form only requires reporting gross proceeds, while the reporting obligation for acquisition cost (Cost Basis) will be formally included starting from 2026.
Glassnode Warns of Market Liquidity Pressure: BTC Three-Month Futures Basis Hits Historically Rare Low
Odaily News On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the yield on Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a trend that has now persisted for several months.Glassnode pointed out that there has only been one similar instance in history where the duration of this condition came close to the current one, namely the period from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.The firm stated that the prolonged slump in the futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall depth and trading volume of the market.Analysts believe that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and demand for arbitrage funds. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it implies that investors are earning insufficient additional returns for the risk taken by holding Bitcoin futures, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market, thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity.
CME FedWatch Shows Probability of Fed 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike in September Rises to 61.4%
Odaily Odaily News The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, bringing the target federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4.00%, is 61.4%, up from 50.6% a month ago. The expectation for a 50-basis-point rate hike has dropped to 0% from 25% a week ago, and the probability of a rate cut is 0%. On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that the committee has only a single 2% inflation target and does not have a soft or implicit soft target for inflation. In prediction markets, traders on Kalshi see a 53% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September and a 44% probability of no change, with related trading volume exceeding $1.36 million. On Polymarket, related trading volume exceeds $8 million, with participants pricing in a 52% probability of a rate hike and a 46% probability of no change.