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Logan: Fed Should Raise Rates by At Least 50 Basis Points
Dallas Fed President Logan stated that the Federal Reserve's policy stance has drifted off track, recommending rate hikes of at least 50 basis points to combat inflation. Logan noted that several more rate increases are necessary to offset last fall's rate cuts, emphasizing that the moderately restrictive interest rate level remains uncertain.
Goldman Sachs: FOMC Hikes Rates by 25 Basis Points to 3.75%-4.00%, Could Raise Rates Once More This Year
According to Chaowang Research, Goldman Sachs' research report dated September 16, 2026, indicates that the Federal Reserve will raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking its first rate hike since July 2023 and passing unanimously. The dot plot median indicates another rate hike in 2026, unchanged policy in 2027, and an increase in the long-run federal funds rate expectation from 3.06% to 3.25%. The SEP raises the 2026 core PCE inflation forecast to 3.4% and the overall PCE to 3.7%.
Fed September Interest Rate Decision Outlook: Market Bets on 25 Basis Point Hike
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month. Key highlights of the meeting include voting splits, adjustments to the dot plot, and guidance on the inflation trajectory and future policy from Chair Warsh's press conference.
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
Study: US Taxpayer Virtual Currency Reporting Rate Only 32% to 56%, IRS New Rule 1099-DA Accelerates Compliance Tightening
According to US CNBC, the latest study published in the academic journal "Review of Accounting Studies" shows that among U.S. taxpayers holding virtual currency, the proportion actually reporting transactions to the federal government is only 32% to 56%. As the IRS mandates intermediaries to submit the virtual currency tax form "Form 1099-DA" starting from 2025, discrepancies between industry reports and taxpayer filings will be more easily identified by authorities. In the initial year, this form only requires reporting gross proceeds, while the reporting obligation for acquisition cost (Cost Basis) will be formally included starting from 2026.
Analysts: Bitcoin Market Momentum Strengthens, Key Cost-Basis Indicator Signals Bull Market
Analyst Darkfost states that the cost basis for Bitcoin's short-term holders (STH) has confirmed crossing above that of active long-term holders (LTH), sending a bull market confirmation signal historically observed for the fifth time. Active long-term holders refer to coin supplies transferred at least once over the past seven years, a definition designed to exclude long-dormant balances. Currently, over 3.5 million bitcoins held for more than ten years remain dormant, with this supply segment growing by an average of approximately 8,000 to 30,000 coins per month. Darkfost believes current market momentum is shifting positively, partially driven by capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although the possibility of this signal failing remains.
Analyst: Bitcoin Trapped in Cost-Basis Standoff, $71,300 Support, $79,800 Resistance
Odaily reports: Analyst Darkfost posted on X platform that Bitcoin has become trapped in a cost-basis standoff zone between $71,300 and $79,800. A similar situation occurred at the end of the 2023 bear market, when BTC was also rejected twice before breaking through the relevant cost-basis zone, suggesting the market may react in the near term. Darkfost noted that Bitcoin is still trading above the $71,300 "active supply cost basis," which represents the average cost of BTC in actual market circulation and could serve as important support. On the other hand, Bitcoin faces resistance at the $79,800 "invested capital cost basis," a level where BTC has been rejected multiple times before, likely because some loss-making positions chose to exit as they approached breakeven.
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Attempting to Reclaim Active Supply Cost Basis, ~$70,400 Becomes Key Level
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently attempting to reclaim the "Active Supply Cost Basis" level.Darkfost noted that active supply refers to all BTC that has been transferred at least once within the past 7 years. By excluding long-dormant Bitcoin, a more accurate average cost basis that aligns with the current market structure can be obtained, with its Realized Price standing at approximately $70,400.He stated that the last time Bitcoin successfully reclaimed this level was in early April, before the market fell back below this zone again in early June, with sellers reasserting dominance.Darkfost said that if BTC can sustain its position above the active supply cost basis this time, it could signal the market is forming a longer-term uptrend, rather than the brief breakout that lasted only about two months previously.This metric is commonly used by the market to observe changes in long-term holder costs and Bitcoin market cycle status. Whether BTC can firmly hold near the $70,400 level will become a key indicator for future bullish and bearish forces.
Analyst: ETH Whales' Average Cost Basis Concentrated Between $1,900 and $2,400
Murphy stated on the X platform that a statistical analysis of entities holding more than 100 ETH reveals that the average cost basis for cohorts holding 100–1,000 ETH, 1,000–10,000 ETH, 10,000–100,000 ETH, and over 100,000 ETH is approximately $1,900, $2,000, $2,100, and $2,400, respectively. This indicates that the average holding cost for high-net-worth individuals and whale entities is mainly concentrated in the $1,900–$2,400 range.Murphy noted that when the ETH price falls below the average holding cost of high-net-worth individuals and whale entities, one could begin dollar-cost averaging, and stop once the price returns to the cost band. Combined with the LTH-NUPL indicator, this strategy has achieved a win rate of nearly 99.99% over the past 10 years.
Glassnode Warns of Market Liquidity Pressure: BTC Three-Month Futures Basis Hits Historically Rare Low
Odaily News On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that the yield on Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note since February this year, a trend that has now persisted for several months.Glassnode pointed out that there has only been one similar instance in history where the duration of this condition came close to the current one, namely the period from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately corresponded to the low point of the previous market cycle.The firm stated that the prolonged slump in the futures basis not only reflects weak market demand for leverage but also directly impacts the overall depth and trading volume of the market.Analysts believe that the futures basis is typically used to gauge market risk appetite and demand for arbitrage funds. When the basis yield falls below the risk-free rate, it implies that investors are earning insufficient additional returns for the risk taken by holding Bitcoin futures, which may lead to reduced capital inflows into the futures market, thereby affecting liquidity and trading activity.
Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points, Dot Plot Suggests Possible Additional Hike This Year
The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, moving the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The latest dot plot shows that 16 out of 18 officials support raising rates again within the year.
Fed September Interest Rate Decision Outlook: Market Bets on 25 Basis Point Hike
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month. Key highlights of the meeting include voting splits, adjustments to the dot plot, and guidance on the inflation trajectory and future policy from Chair Warsh's press conference.
QCP: Market Has Priced In a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, Focus Shifts to Policy Guidance
QCP released a report on September 14 stating that the market has largely priced in expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention shifting to the language of the rate hike announcement and signals regarding the future rate path. U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, with the year-over-year growth rate of core CPI declining from 2.5% to 2.4%.Bitcoin briefly fell to $76,700 following the release of the CPI data, before recovering to around $77,600; Ethereum remained near $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $463 million last week, with net outflows slowing to $13.2 million on Friday; spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $197 million, with single-day net inflows of $216 million on Friday.
Related news
Bitcoin Approaches Cost Basis Range for Two Investor Groups, Potentially Impacting Current Upward Momentum
Darkfost posted on X platform stating that Bitcoin is approaching the average cost basis of two holding groups: investors holding for 18 months to 2 years have a cost basis of approximately $88,350, while investors holding for 6 to 12 months have a cost basis of approximately $89,200.Darkfost noted that cost basis represents the average holding cost of a group, not a natural support or resistance level; as the price approaches this range, the behavior of relevant investors may change, and this area can be viewed as a potential risk zone. The group of investors holding for 6 to 12 months has been at an overall loss for nearly a year, with some investors potentially having bought at market highs; some may sell after breaking even, while others may continue buying to lower their holding costs.
Logan: Fed Should Raise Rates by At Least 50 Basis Points
Dallas Fed President Logan stated that the Federal Reserve's policy stance has drifted off track, recommending rate hikes of at least 50 basis points to combat inflation. Logan noted that several more rate increases are necessary to offset last fall's rate cuts, emphasizing that the moderately restrictive interest rate level remains uncertain.
glassnode: $84K–$85K Is the Densest Cost Basis Zone for Long-Term Holders in BTC
glassnode posted on X that Bitcoin is currently hovering below major supply concentration zones, with the $84,000 to $85,000 range holding more long-term holder supply than any other price range. A rally can only continue if the price breaks above and holds this zone.
Analysts: Bitcoin Market Momentum Strengthens, Key Cost-Basis Indicator Signals Bull Market
Analyst Darkfost states that the cost basis for Bitcoin's short-term holders (STH) has confirmed crossing above that of active long-term holders (LTH), sending a bull market confirmation signal historically observed for the fifth time. Active long-term holders refer to coin supplies transferred at least once over the past seven years, a definition designed to exclude long-dormant balances. Currently, over 3.5 million bitcoins held for more than ten years remain dormant, with this supply segment growing by an average of approximately 8,000 to 30,000 coins per month. Darkfost believes current market momentum is shifting positively, partially driven by capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although the possibility of this signal failing remains.
Fed Hikes Rates by 25 Basis Points; Gold Prices Dip Before Rallying
The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike, prompting intraday gold prices to initially dip before rallying. Contrarian capital is positioning in gold, as Nobel laureate Lucas analyzes the current logic of asset pricing.
Analyst: Bitcoin Trapped in Cost-Basis Standoff, $71,300 Support, $79,800 Resistance
Odaily reports: Analyst Darkfost posted on X platform that Bitcoin has become trapped in a cost-basis standoff zone between $71,300 and $79,800. A similar situation occurred at the end of the 2023 bear market, when BTC was also rejected twice before breaking through the relevant cost-basis zone, suggesting the market may react in the near term. Darkfost noted that Bitcoin is still trading above the $71,300 "active supply cost basis," which represents the average cost of BTC in actual market circulation and could serve as important support. On the other hand, Bitcoin faces resistance at the $79,800 "invested capital cost basis," a level where BTC has been rejected multiple times before, likely because some loss-making positions chose to exit as they approached breakeven.