News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: SK Hynix's stock price has recently seen a pullback. On August 3, the stock fell 8.79%. Although it rebounded slightly by 0.64% and 5.77% on August 4 and 5 respectively, it plunged another 10.37% on August 6, closing at 1.495 million KRW; on August 7, it dropped a further 4.88%, closing at 1.422 million KRW.Against the backdrop of heightened market volatility, SK Group released an advertisement quoting founder Choi Jong-gun’s famous saying: "Despair and hope are two sides of the same coin; you can turn despair into hope as easily as flipping your palm," and adapted it to: "Unease and anticipation in the AI era are also two sides of the same coin; you can turn unease into anticipation," thereby conveying confidence in the long-term development of the AI industry.Securities institutions believe that short-term stock price fluctuations have not changed SK Hynix's fundamentals, and the market should focus on its HBM4 technology leadership and the earnings stability brought by long-term supply agreements (LTAs). Specifically:1. Hyundai Motor Securities expects SK Hynix's DRAM and NAND bit growth to reach 9.7% and 1.5% respectively in the third quarter. As HBM4 sales contributions expand, even with a higher proportion of LTAs, DRAM average selling prices (ASP) are still expected to rise 19.9% quarter-over-quarter. Companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic are advancing plans to build their own hyperscale AI data centers and intend to raise funds for related construction through IPOs. Even if some large tech companies adjust capital expenditures (Capex) in the future, this could be offset by demand from other AI infrastructure. Additionally, regarding competitive concerns over China's CXMT, given the U.S. continued tightening of semiconductor equipment export restrictions, as well as Micron's expansion of domestic U.S. investment, the likelihood of major companies like Apple adopting Chinese memory chips is relatively low.2. SK Securities is also bullish on SK Hynix's competitive advantages, believing that with its leading position in HBM, partnerships with major North American GPU companies, and AI-driven LTA demand, SK Hynix's market position remains solid. Currently, the HBM supply-demand fulfillment rate is below 70%, and the core value of LTAs lies in ensuring profit sustainability and earnings stability through a "mutual binding structure" between customers and suppliers. With value-reassessment initiatives such as an ADR listing progressing, along with dividend income from the sale of SPC assets related to Kioxia, the company's goal of achieving net cash of 100 trillion KRW may be reached earlier than expected. As shareholder return policies gradually become clearer, this will help the market re-evaluate the value of the LTA model and drive a further re-rating of SK Hynix. (Daum)
According to TechFlow Research, UBS pointed out in its research report on July 29 that SK Hynix's stock price has fallen 52% from its high on June 22, with a current price-to-book ratio of only 1.66x, implying a long-term ROE of 18.9%. However, UBS predicts the average ROE from 2027 to 2031 will reach 40.2%, a difference of 21 percentage points between the two. DRAM bit demand growth is expected to increase from 22% in 2026 to 36% in 2027, HBM capacity will increase from 230,000 wafers/month at the end of 2026 to 270,000 wafers/month at the end of 2027, and SK Hynix will maintain a 48% shipment share in the HBM industry in 2026. UBS believes the market valuation downward revision lacks basis, AI agents are driving accelerated memory demand, 10 long-term agreements have been signed, and although LTAs suppress ASP in the short term, they benefit profit margins in the long term. UBS maintains a Buy rating, lowering the target price from 3.2 million Korean won to 3 million Korean won, expects to launch a share buyback of about 12 trillion Korean won in the second half of 2026, and will use 50% of free cash flow for shareholder returns in the long term.
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.