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Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, stated on platform X that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products continued to see capital outflows this week, with net outflows reaching $1.2 billion, making it the third most severe week of outflows since 2026.
Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), Head of Research at Galaxy Research, published a post revealing that Galaxy Research has released a new report refuting banking industry claims that the GENIUS Act would erode U.S. bank deposits—and providing quantitative estimates. Key findings from the report include: - Under the GENIUS Act framework, 60%–70% of new stablecoin issuance would originate overseas; inflows of foreign deposits would be approximately twice the volume of domestic deposit migration—indicating a net increase in total deposits rather than a zero-sum reallocation. - Each newly minted GENIUS stablecoin would generate approximately $0.32 in net credit for the U.S. economy. - In the base-case scenario, total credit expansion by 2030 would reach roughly $400 billion; under the optimistic scenario, it could reach $1.2 trillion. - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields (T-bills) would compress by 3–5 basis points, potentially saving taxpayers up to $3 billion annually in borrowing costs. - The report also notes that the interest pass-through mechanism does not pose an existential threat to U.S. banks—it merely represents a reallocation of profit margins and will not reduce overall credit capacity.
Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $83,300 on Wednesday but failed to achieve a decisive breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index falling over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the worst-performing major sector. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded by the market as a key indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it would further reinforce the market narrative that the bear market, which saw prices fall below $63,000 in February, has ended and a new bull market has begun.However, a similar situation occurred historically in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke above and tested the 200-day moving average before ultimately falling to around $20,000 by June of that year. As a result, some analysts are warning of the risk of a "fakeout."Analytics firm Marex stated that Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trajectory depends on three factors: sustained spot buying pressure, a continued tightening of exchange supply, and a derivatives market that remains healthy without overheating. If all three factors align positively, Bitcoin could quickly open up the path towards the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, noted that this pullback appears more like a brief consolidation within an uptrend rather than an end to the trend. However, he also cautioned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and similar instances in the past were accompanied by significant corrections.Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.32% from its early-month high of 4.46%, which is viewed as a potential positive factor for risk assets. (CoinDesk)