Galaxy Digital: GENIUS Stablecoin Could Drive Up to $1.2 Trillion in U.S. Credit Expansion by 2030

Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), Head of Research at Galaxy Research, published a post revealing that Galaxy Research has released a new report refuting banking industry claims that the GENIUS Act would erode U.S. bank deposits—and providing quantitative estimates. Key findings from the report include: - Under the GENIUS Act framework, 60%–70% of new stablecoin issuance would originate overseas; inflows of foreign deposits would be approximately twice the volume of domestic deposit migration—indicating a net increase in total deposits rather than a zero-sum reallocation. - Each newly minted GENIUS stablecoin would generate approximately $0.32 in net credit for the U.S. economy. - In the base-case scenario, total credit expansion by 2030 would reach roughly $400 billion; under the optimistic scenario, it could reach $1.2 trillion. - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields (T-bills) would compress by 3–5 basis points, potentially saving taxpayers up to $3 billion annually in borrowing costs. - The report also notes that the interest pass-through mechanism does not pose an existential threat to U.S. banks—it merely represents a reallocation of profit margins and will not reduce overall credit capacity.