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10x Research: Bitmine’s cumulative losses amount to approximately $10 billion, yet its current valuation may not fully reflect its embedded option value.
10x Research stated that Bitmine raised a total of $1.92 billion through 50 equity issuances between July 2025 and June 2026, allocating nearly all proceeds toward purchasing 5,543,872 ETH—approximately 4.6% of the circulating supply. At $1,650 per ETH, its current reserve value stands at roughly $9.1 billion, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $10.1 billion for investors, representing a 52% drawdown from invested capital.
10x Research: The NAV premiums of most Bitcoin treasury companies have significantly contracted and may soon enter a negative-premium era.
10x Research posted an analysis on X, pointing out that as Bitcoin’s volatility continues to decline, the NAV premiums of most Bitcoin treasury companies have significantly contracted—some even turning into substantial discounts—resulting in visible losses for related investors. Historically, Grayscale’s GBTC briefly traded at a 47% discount in December 2022; at that time, investors could effectively buy Bitcoin through the product at an implied price below $10,000. The market had mistakenly viewed traditional finance–packaged crypto asset products as “Bitcoin leveraged tools.” In reality, these structures resemble options more closely: their implied value expands when volatility rises and contracts when volatility falls.
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Reach $126,000 by Year-End; Previous $100,000 Target Too Conservative
Odaily News: Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that the forecast of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of the year may be too conservative, and there is a possibility of challenging the previous all-time high of $126,000 before the year ends.On Friday, Kendrick noted that the recent Bitcoin rally has been primarily driven by short liquidations, while inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have also begun to recover. Given the currently low open interest levels in the market, more investors could re-enter as prices rise, providing further momentum for the rally."This is the first time this year that I've seen a risk that my year-end target of $100,000 may be too low," Kendrick said.Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's rebound momentum could accelerate further after October 6. Meanwhile, several market observers also believe the bear market may be nearing its end. Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, previously stated that Bitcoin could bottom out in October; Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, suggested that if the August monthly close stays above $63,000, it could confirm the formation of a bear market bottom. (Cointelegraph)
10x Research: Bitcoin Trading Volume Shrinks, Market Enters Narrow Range Consolidation
According to 10x Research analysis, Bitcoin trading volume has contracted significantly to levels far below historical peaks, and prices have entered the narrowest trading range in months; historically, such patterns often indicate an imminent directional breakout. Implied volatility in the options market has fallen to rare lows, ETF inflows remain sluggish, stablecoins continue to experience net outflows, and MicroStrategy has even shifted to net selling for four consecutive weeks. Considering both the macroeconomic background and technicals, the market is currently in a "calm before the breakout" phase, and the directional choice may become clear within this week.
Analysis: Bitcoin Implied Volatility Ends Losing Streak, Potentially Signaling Market Turbulence Ahead
10x Research posted on X platform, stating that data shows Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) dropped to a local low of 33% on July 15, and has now ended its consecutive decline, slightly recovering to 35%. This is a significant drop compared to the high of approximately 55% seen in February of this year. Although the recent rebound in implied volatility is limited, it has already caught the attention of options traders. This rebound in the indicator may suggest upcoming market turbulence, but it remains to be confirmed whether the market is bottoming out for a rebound or merely pausing temporarily before a further decline.
10x Research: Active Buying from Long-Term Holders Helps BTC Form Short-Term Support, But Caution Still Needed on Cycle Lows
10x Research published an analysis noting that US employment data stronger than expected temporarily caused Bitcoin price volatility, and ETF fund outflows also exacerbated selling pressure. However, active buying from long-term holders helped form price support for the market. Meanwhile, weak employment data also led the market to delay its expectation for the next rate hike from October 2026 to December, providing certain support for Bitcoin's short-term trend. 10x Research added that historical data shows July has always been a month where Bitcoin performs relatively strongly, with an average gain of 9.1%. However, the market usually enters a consolidation phase from August to September, and September might become the low point of this cycle. Bitcoin recently rebounded from $58,500 to $61,500, which may be providing new positioning opportunities for traders.
10x Research: If Ethereum’s $1,600 Support Breaks, It May Drop to $1,200
10x Research stated on X platform that Ethereum is currently at the $1,600 support level. If this support is lost, the next target is $1,200, a price level seen since the FTX collapse. Ethereum (ETH-USDT) is trading below the 7-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend; it is also below the 30-day moving average, with a weekly decline of 7.4%. Ethereum executed a major restructuring, laying off 20% of its staff, which triggered a significant price drop. Warnings of a funding crisis following the expiration of key developer incentive plans further dampened market sentiment.The spot Ethereum ETF continues to see net outflows alongside weak institutional demand, severely constraining upward market momentum. On-chain data shows asset accumulation at multi-year lows and a rising transaction failure rate, signaling cooling network demand. The news calendar is relatively light this week, with the dominant price factors remaining macro headwinds: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, a strengthening US dollar, and stock market volatility.
10x Research: 6 High-Momentum Altcoins with Clear Catalysts Poised to Outperform Bitcoin
10x Research released a report stating that the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have continuously shifted over the past decade, indicating that holding altcoins long-term is not the optimal strategy—momentum trading is more critical. A bullish stance can be maintained if an altcoin trades above its 6-month or 12-month moving average; once it falls below, investors should decisively reduce positions. Using a dual-screening framework based on fundamental catalysts and risk management, the firm has currently identified six altcoins exhibiting strong bullish catalysts and meeting risk-management criteria. Historical data shows such a carefully selected portfolio is likely to significantly outperform Bitcoin.
10x Research: Bitcoin's True Investment Thesis May Lie in Space Infrastructure and Decentralized Computing
10x Research released a report stating that the market generally believes Bitcoin's core value lies in hedging against currency debasement, but this is not its true investment thesis. The report argues that the core constraint facing decentralized currency is not monetary policy, but physical conditions, including energy, heat dissipation, and geographical jurisdictional limitations.The report points out that with the development of space infrastructure, the constraints of heat, electricity, and geographical limitations faced by data centers could be alleviated in orbital environments. The connection between SpaceX, Starlink, and Bitcoin may represent a long-term strategic layout centered around future infrastructure construction.10x Research believes that technologies such as satellites, encryption technology, and artificial intelligence can both promote the decentralization of power and potentially reinforce resource concentration. The world is competing around two sets of infrastructure systems.The report also compares Bitcoin with China's digital yuan, suggesting they represent different paths for digital infrastructure. It also notes that as populations gradually move away from traditional network systems, the business models of companies like Palantir may also be affected.
10x Research: The window for Bitcoin's bear market low in this cycle is approaching
Odaily Planet Daily reports that 10x Research has released its latest market report, stating that Bitcoin traders have long misread the "global money supply" and "global liquidity" indicators, while the movement of the US dollar is actually one of the key factors affecting Bitcoin's price.10x Research points out that the US dollar is currently strengthening across multiple dimensions, and historical experience shows that a stronger dollar is generally negative for Bitcoin. Its dollar model has only triggered 6 sell signals since 2011, with the last occurrence in November 2025, followed by months of continuous decline in Bitcoin's price.The report also indicates that the widely circulated global liquidity indicator in the crypto community last year was incorrectly used by the market. According to its research framework, this indicator triggered a buy signal in early March this year and an exit signal in late April, and the team has already calculated the potential time window for the next trigger.10x Research states that the report analyzes the potential time range and value range for the bear market low in this cycle, incorporating the dollar's movement, global liquidity, and other macro drivers, and believes that the time window corresponding to the cyclical low for Bitcoin is gradually approaching.
10x Research: 6 High-Momentum Altcoins with Clear Catalysts Poised to Outperform Bitcoin
10x Research released a report stating that the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have continuously shifted over the past decade, indicating that holding altcoins long-term is not the optimal strategy—momentum trading is more critical. A bullish stance can be maintained if an altcoin trades above its 6-month or 12-month moving average; once it falls below, investors should decisively reduce positions. Using a dual-screening framework based on fundamental catalysts and risk management, the firm has currently identified six altcoins exhibiting strong bullish catalysts and meeting risk-management criteria. Historical data shows such a carefully selected portfolio is likely to significantly outperform Bitcoin.
Analysis: Bitcoin mining companies' transition to AI infrastructure is accelerating, with multiple infrastructure-linked stocks surging
Odaily Planet Daily reported that 10x Research posted on X platform, stating that amid Bitcoin's downturn, the mining and AI infrastructure sectors have surged significantly. KEEL rose 30%, CIFR rose 29%, IREN rose 29%, WULF rose 24%, and HUT rose 22%, primarily driven by large-scale hyperscale data center deals, campus acquisitions, and new institutional support.This week's catalysts include IREN's $1.6 billion purchase of Dell Blackwell systems, TeraWulf's acquisition of a 1 GW Kentucky campus, and Hut 8's signing of a $9.8 billion Texas lease agreement. These events indicate that the transition of Bitcoin mining companies towards AI infrastructure is accelerating.
Related news
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Reach $126,000 by Year-End; Previous $100,000 Target Too Conservative
Odaily News: Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that the forecast of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of the year may be too conservative, and there is a possibility of challenging the previous all-time high of $126,000 before the year ends.On Friday, Kendrick noted that the recent Bitcoin rally has been primarily driven by short liquidations, while inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have also begun to recover. Given the currently low open interest levels in the market, more investors could re-enter as prices rise, providing further momentum for the rally."This is the first time this year that I've seen a risk that my year-end target of $100,000 may be too low," Kendrick said.Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's rebound momentum could accelerate further after October 6. Meanwhile, several market observers also believe the bear market may be nearing its end. Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, previously stated that Bitcoin could bottom out in October; Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, suggested that if the August monthly close stays above $63,000, it could confirm the formation of a bear market bottom. (Cointelegraph)
10x Research: Continues to Be Bullish on Bitcoin, Circle Up Over 31% Since Buy Point
: 10x Research's latest report indicates that after months of narrow-range consolidation, Bitcoin has finally seen a breakout. It stated that its most preferred strategy this month is buying call options with a strike price of $70,000. The option was priced as low as around $300 on August 5th, dipped to $30 three days ago, then soared to a high of $1600, and is currently trading at approximately $1300.10x Research also stated that a better trading strategy is the $70,000/$80,000 strike price call spread expiring in September. This structure is more bullish while still retaining some flexibility.In addition, Circle is also one of 10x Research's most favored trades this month. Earlier, it suggested buying on dips when Circle fell to around $60-$61, and its stock price has now risen to $80, an increase of over 31%. In terms of gold, the previously predicted breakout has also materialized, with prices rising from $4100 to $4571, an increase of about 11%. It believes that the US debt level is about to break through the $40 trillion mark, which is one of the core drivers of the current macro outlook. Related market attention may continue to drive gold prices and could further support Bitcoin's rise.
10x Research: Bitcoin Trading Volume Shrinks, Market Enters Narrow Range Consolidation
According to 10x Research analysis, Bitcoin trading volume has contracted significantly to levels far below historical peaks, and prices have entered the narrowest trading range in months; historically, such patterns often indicate an imminent directional breakout. Implied volatility in the options market has fallen to rare lows, ETF inflows remain sluggish, stablecoins continue to experience net outflows, and MicroStrategy has even shifted to net selling for four consecutive weeks. Considering both the macroeconomic background and technicals, the market is currently in a "calm before the breakout" phase, and the directional choice may become clear within this week.
10x Research: Bitcoin May Confirm Bear Market Bottom in August, Monthly Close Needs to Hold Above $63,000
According to Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, founder of crypto research firm 10x Research, noted in his latest report that if Bitcoin's August monthly closing price holds above $63,000, it will trigger multiple cycle indicators to turn bullish, thereby confirming the bear market bottom. The report shows that Bitcoin's July close failed to reach this threshold; currently trading at approximately $63,140, it is just one step away from confirming the signal. 10x Research stated that it remains inclined to hold long positions currently, but if Bitcoin breaks below key support levels and moving averages, it will shift to a neutral stance. The report also highlighted risks: if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise, it may force the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes in September; additionally, miners transitioning to AI businesses bring potential selling pressure of approximately 100,000 BTC, and position closing by Bitcoin treasury companies also constitutes supply-side pressure.
Coinbase Premium Index Sets Historical Record with 77 Consecutive Days of Negative Values
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Monday, currently trading at approximately $62,362, while the Coinbase Premium Index has recorded negative values for 77 consecutive days, setting a historical record for the longest negative premium. According to Coinglass data, as of Monday, the latest premium rate was -0.1369%, indicating that the price of BTC on Coinbase continues to be lower than on international exchanges. Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, stated that the persistent discount indicates that selling pressure from U.S. institutional investors continues to outweigh buying demand, and U.S. domestic institutions are continuing to reduce their Bitcoin holdings.
Analysis: Bitcoin Implied Volatility Ends Losing Streak, Potentially Signaling Market Turbulence Ahead
10x Research posted on X platform, stating that data shows Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) dropped to a local low of 33% on July 15, and has now ended its consecutive decline, slightly recovering to 35%. This is a significant drop compared to the high of approximately 55% seen in February of this year. Although the recent rebound in implied volatility is limited, it has already caught the attention of options traders. This rebound in the indicator may suggest upcoming market turbulence, but it remains to be confirmed whether the market is bottoming out for a rebound or merely pausing temporarily before a further decline.