Analysis: The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned green for the first time since March 2023, potentially signaling a local top rather than the start of a new bull market.

According to an analysis released by CryptoQuant-certified analyst MorenoDV_, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has just generated its first “Early Bull Market” signal since March 2023. Historically, when this indicator transitions from the bear market zone into the early bull market zone, it typically signals that the worst phase of correction is over and that market structure is beginning to recover—similar signals appeared after deep bear markets in early 2019 and early 2023, both of which preceded stronger upward trends. However, this signal should not be interpreted uncritically. In March 2022, the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, yet price subsequently faced rejection—indicating a local top rather than the start of a new bull market. Analysts note that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a deep bear-market asset, and the rebound in its 30-day moving average suggests improving underlying momentum. At the same time, however, multiple other market indicators are already showing signs of weakness, making this signal less clear-cut than classic early-cycle confirmations. The analyst leans toward interpreting this signal as more likely indicating a local top—unless strong price follow-through confirms the bullish thesis—rather than the onset of a new bull market.