JPMorgan: Optical Module CAGR Reaches 28%, NPO/CPO to Account for One Quarter by 2030

According to TechFlow Research, JPMorgan's August 6 research report cites LightCounting's latest forecast that the data communication market CAGR from 2025 to 2030 will reach 28%, with the scale increasing from $20 billion to over $70 billion. 1.6T products are the largest growth driver, with a CAGR of about 120%, contributing about $40 billion by 2030. After the NPO/CPO market is included in the addressable market calculation, it will exceed $18 billion by 2030, accounting for more than 25% share of the data center communication market. The telecom and data center interconnect market CAGR is 18%, reaching $9 billion by 2030. In terms of short-term financial reports, JPMorgan believes COHR has the highest earnings certainty, with revenue and profit margins expected to continue improving; market concerns over LITE are excessive, with valuation corresponding to only 22x 2028 EPS, leaving room to exceed expectations; FN needs September quarterly guidance to boost confidence. In terms of customer landscape, Google is expected to become the largest optical component purchaser by 2030, and Meta will lead NPO/CPO deployment. For Nvidia, short-term share rebounds to 25% due to 1.6T, but long-term share is expected to drop from 18% to 12%.