Analyst: ETH Still Faces Downside Risk, Unlikely to Break $2,400 in the Near Term

CryptoQuant analyst BorisD points out that Ethereum still faces obvious downside risks. The combination of rising exchange supply and continued ETF outflows could push prices down to around $1,700, representing a potential correction of about 20% from current levels. A breakout above $2,400 seems unlikely in the near term.Data shows that ETH reserves on exchanges like Binance have increased significantly recently, rising from approximately 3.36 million to 3.84 million between May 5 and May 9. This indicates more tokens are flowing into trading platforms, which is typically interpreted by the market as a signal of rising potential sell pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net capital outflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $190 million, indicating weakening institutional demand at the margin.In terms of price, although ETH has rebounded about 40% from its local low, it encountered strong resistance near $2,400 before falling back to the $2,260 level, limiting short-term upward momentum. The CryptoQuant analyst notes that as exchange inflows accelerate, the price has failed to sustain its upward trend and instead retreated, suggesting the market may be in a phase where "absorption and distribution coexist."Technically, ETH has broken below the lower trendline of an ascending wedge structure (around $2,280). If this breakdown is confirmed, the pattern's measured move target points to around $1,725, corresponding to a potential decline of approximately 22% and coinciding with the macro low area from early February. Some analysts further believe that if the larger bear flag pattern continues, ETH could face the risk of dipping to $1,280.Overall, market sentiment is generally cautious, with a consensus that the current rebound is more likely a temporary move within a distribution process rather than a trend reversal signal. The risk of short-term volatility remains elevated. (Cointelegraph)