Bernstein: Global Semiconductor Equipment WFE Grows 75% in Two Years, DRAM and Logic Chips Are the Biggest Drivers

According to TechFlow Research, Bernstein's August 11 research report significantly raised the global Wafer Front-End Equipment (WFE) spending forecast: from $141 billion to $148 billion for 2026, from $175 billion to $204 billion for 2027, and from $198 billion to $259 billion for 2028, representing a cumulative growth of 75% over the two years. DRAM WFE is expected to grow by 53% and 37% in 2027 and 2028 respectively, NAND by 58% and 42%, and logic chips and foundry by 20% and 19%. China's WFE demand will reach $57 billion, $57.3 billion, and $101 billion from 2026 to 2028 respectively, jumping to $101 billion in 2028, with comprehensive production expansion across all segments. In 2026, domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to achieve 41% year-over-year growth, with revenue reaching $16 billion; imports will recover in the second half of the year, creating a new full-year high of $41 billion. The report assesses that the incremental growth mainly comes from memory chips in global regions outside China, as well as China's foundry and logic chips. The recent pullback in the equipment sector provides an entry opportunity, as the market underestimates the demand intensity for 2027. ASML is the top pick for European semiconductor equipment, with an expected revenue CAGR of 34% from 2025 to 2028; Applied Materials price target raised from $525 to $675 (+29%), Lam Research up