Morgan Stanley: Internet Sector Valuation Discount 7%-14%, But AI ROIC Debate Unresolved, Buying Consensus Not Yet Formed

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's August 18 Internet Weekly Report pointed out that the internet sector overall fell 1% last week, with Amazon and Google leading the decline with drops of 4% and 2% respectively. The current valuations of Amazon, Google, and Meta are 20x, 17x, and 19x 2026 earnings per share respectively, representing a discount of 7% to 14% compared to their respective five-year averages. The internet sector's overall NTM EV/EBITDA is at a 7% discount to the five-year average, but NTM EV/Sales remains at a 19% premium. If stock-based compensation (SBC) is treated as a cash expense, the median EV/EBITDA for the digital media, e-commerce, and travel sectors will increase by approximately 36%, 30%, and 44% respectively. The report judges that the AI ROIC debate remains the core focus of the market. There is not yet a consensus to buy at current low valuation levels, as the market has fundamental disagreements on the return on AI capital expenditure. If AI spending continues to erode profit margins, valuations may compress further; conversely, if market confidence in ROIC recovers, valuations are expected to recover. Morgan Stanley believes the internet sector is likely to remain range-bound until the AI return on investment debate shows a clearer direction.