BofA: NAND Spot Prices Surge, Storage Cycle End May Be Delayed Until 2028

According to TechFlow Research, BofA Securities' August 7 research report noted that in the first week of August, NAND spot prices for 512Gb to 1Tb rose 5% to 6%, 256Gb rose over 10%, and DRAM spot prices simultaneously increased 1% to 2%, outperforming seasonal patterns. The BofA Memory Index reading for June was 183, remaining at historical highs. BofA believes that second-tier and white-label OEMs are conducting concentrated restocking for the peak season, and traditional DRAM and NAND supply remains tight. Kioxia's Q3 revenue guidance increased 35% quarter-over-quarter, implying a quarterly increase of nearly 20% in average NAND prices. BofA expects DRAM and NAND prices to rise by another 8% and 3% respectively in Q4. Entering 2027, price increases will narrow quarter by quarter, but the full-year average price will still be higher than in 2026. The real adjustment will be delayed until 2028, when average DRAM and NAND prices will decline by 8% and 14% respectively. Capital returns are simultaneously ramping up; Samsung's special dividend may exceed 30 trillion Korean won, buybacks may exceed 40 trillion Korean won, and SK Hynix will also allocate 50% of free cash flow for returns.