JPMorgan: Moderna interim trial reaches primary endpoint, but success in adjuvant melanoma has already been priced into the market.

According to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Chase report dated August 19 noted that the individualized neoantigen therapy (INT) co-developed by Moderna and Merck met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival in the Phase III adjuvant melanoma trial, with the key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival also being achieved. JPMorgan previously assigned an 85% probability of success to this trial, viewing the results as in line with expectations and already factored into the stock price prior to the announcement. Moderna’s shares rose in pre-market trading, yet JPMorgan maintained an Underweight rating and a $40 price target, representing a 36% downside from the current $63. JPMorgan noted that the adjuvant melanoma indication contributes only approximately 3% to valuation, and INT data in non-melanoma indications remains the key variable driving valuation. The current valuation model already incorporates roughly $15 per share for the potential value of other indications. The price target is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model using a 10.5% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and a 0% terminal growth rate.