Analyst: History May Repeat Itself, Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $33,000

According to Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin will reenact its historical “Sell in May” pattern in 2026. In the two midterm election years—2018 and 2022—Bitcoin experienced sharp declines in May, falling approximately 30% and 70%, respectively. Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar warned that this historical pattern could repeat, with Bitcoin potentially dropping to $33,000. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, also noted that if Bitcoin remains persistently below $78,000, the likelihood of a new capitulation phase increases. However, Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, argued that past crashes stemmed from specific shocks—including the Mt. Gox incident, China’s ICO regulations, the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, and the collapses of Terra and FTX—not from calendar-based seasonality. He added that the launch of spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and progress on the CLARITY Act have significantly broadened the institutional buyer base, making a 70–80% deep correction unlikely this cycle. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlighted $76,000 as the current critical support level; failure to hold it would likely trigger further downside pressure.