Jiang Zhuo'er: Short-Term Prediction Win Rates Are Roughly 50-50; Position Management Is the True Core of Profitability.

Jiang Zhuo'er (Lattice Pool) stated that short-term forecasting accuracy is merely a 50/50 shot, with profitability hinging on position sizing, trade execution, and asset selection. Citing the BTC top on September 4 as an example, he called the reversal four hours in advance and liquidated his 100% position within one minute at the peak price of $82,050. During the September 11 CPI-driven market move, although he misread the direction, his hedged portfolio structure of "100% ETH spot + 100% BTC equivalent short" still delivered a net gain of 4.3%. He emphasized that the market is currently in a bull cycle, so the default stance is a fully loaded ETH spot position. Shorting is strictly utilized to hedge against drawdowns and safeguard spot profits, not for negative-position operations. Currently, his USDT-denominated PnL has reached 92%, nearing a twofold increase.