Goldman Sachs: U.S. Economic Resilience Underestimated, Interest Rate and Oil Price Shocks Impact Just 0.4 Percentage Points

According to Chaoxiang Research, Goldman Sachs' research report dated September 28, 2026 maintains its 2026 U.S. GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, only 0.3 percentage points lower than the beginning-of-year estimate. Third-quarter growth is projected at 3.4%, near the potential growth rate of 2.3%. The net impact of financial conditions is 0.1 percentage points, with rising interest rates offset by stock price gains, narrowing credit spreads, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Oil price shocks act as a headwind of 0.3 percentage points, resulting in a combined drag of approximately 0.4 percentage points. Goldman Sachs believes the market has overestimated the impacts of interest rates and oil prices. Consumer spending grew by 2.2%, 0.2 percentage points above model forecasts, serving as the primary source of economic resilience. Residential investment faces a headwind of approximately 2.6 percentage points from high interest rates, while consumer and business investments each contribute positively by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. The recovery in energy capital expenditures partially offsets the drag from consumption. Tightening financial conditions and higher oil prices collectively weigh on growth by roughly 0.4 percentage points, with Goldman Sachs' downward adjustment to its full-year forecast being slightly smaller than this figure.