QCP: AI credit risk outweighs inflation, becoming the market's primary concern; U.S. Treasury yields fall instead of rising.

According to the market briefing released by QCP Capital (QCP Market Colour), US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month, with market expectations at 3.6% and 0.6%, respectively. Core CPI increased 2.6% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts on both metrics. Despite the resilient inflation data, US Treasury yields retreated significantly. During the prior week, yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries briefly spiked to 5.35% and 5.73%, respectively, before capital flowed into long-dated Treasuries as a safe haven, reversing the reflation trade that had previously dominated the market. QCP noted that this risk-off sentiment was primarily driven by credit stress in the AI infrastructure sector. AI compute provider CoreWeave closed down 15.5% on the day, and its five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widened to 60%, prompting declines in the NASDAQ and South Korea’s KOSPI indices. Separately, MSCI introduced a new “non-operating company” classification framework this week, which may impact whether certain securities retain their place in the index and trigger forced redemptions from passive funds. Consequently, the index inclusion status of Strategy (MSTR) remains uncertain. QCP argued that credit quality within the technology sector is now displacing inflation and fiscal concerns as the primary constraint on risk appetite. With the tech earnings season commencing in approximately two weeks, the upcoming period will serve as a critical benchmark for determining whether AI-related credit risks could spill over into broader asset classes.