JPMorgan: Semiconductor Buy-Side Expectations Above Guidance, 9 Stocks Including onsemi Face Earnings Test

According to TechFlow Research, a buy-side survey by JPMorgan on August 3 showed that for most of the nine semiconductor and hardware companies, buy-side expectations were higher than company guidance. onsemi (ON) Q2 revenue buy-side average was $1.61 billion (guidance $1.59 billion), gross margin 39.5% (guidance 39.0%), EPS $0.75 (guidance $0.71), and FY2027 EPS average $3.57 (guidance $3.11). Approximately 60% of respondents expect ON to slightly raise its 2026 AI revenue target (currently around $500 million). After a stock price drawdown of approximately 25%, ON has shifted from net short to slightly net short, with earnings implied volatility at 7.5%. For the eight companies AMAT, AMD, ANET, COHR, CSCO, LITE, SNDK, and WDC, buy-side average revenue, gross margin, and EPS were all higher than company guidance. JPMorgan believes that July AI momentum unwinding led to a significant drawdown in the semiconductor sector, but buy-side expectations for earnings are not low, creating a contrast between buy-side expectations and stock price pessimism. AMAT earnings implied volatility of 18% is significantly higher than the historical average, indicating the bar for beating expectations is rising. ON is an exception; AI expectations are extremely low, instead leaving room for earnings to beat expectations.