Morgan Stanley: 2027 Capital Expenditure Forecast for Four Major Cloud Providers Raised to $1.15 Trillion

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley's research report on August 10 indicated that Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, the four hyperscalers, plus SpaceX, will reach a combined capital expenditure of $1.15 trillion in 2027, a year-on-year increase of 47%. This figure represents a 20% upward revision from the July consensus forecast. The consensus growth rate for 2028 is 11%, with the growth rate narrowing sharply. Morgan Stanley believes that capital expenditure forecasts will continue to face upward pressure. As the number of tokens processed monthly grows exponentially, accelerating cloud revenue, expanding data center commitments, and supply chain vendors emphasizing accelerated demand and extended visibility all point to compute power investment not yet having peaked. The proliferation of open-weight models (already adopted by 60% of enterprises) is unlocking more application scenarios by reducing inference costs, thereby instead reinforcing compute demand. Wix's in-house model significantly reduced AI inference costs, with non-GAAP gross margin rising from near zero at the start of the year to approximately 60% in the second half, validating the logic that cost reduction stimulates demand. Under this framework, the 11% growth consensus for 2028 is more likely underestimated rather than conservative.