CoinShares: Inflationary Pressure Still Limits Bitcoin's Upside Potential
Source：
利率方面，市场普遍预计美联储将在10月28日会议上维持利率不变，但近期偏热的CPI和PPI数据令后续加息风险依然存在。Polymarket数据显示，截至10月20日，市场预计10月加息25个基点的概率约为12%，CME市场定价则约为17%；市场对12月再次加息的预期概率约为83%。分析认为，若美联储10月意外加息，可能因超出市场预期而引发更大冲击。 比特币本周在风险资产波动中表现出相对韧性，现货需求回升、股市情绪改善及空头回补为其提供支撑。不过，后续加密市场走势仍将主要受利率预期和流动性变化影响，住房市场疲软带来的政策缓冲，尚不足以抵消通胀风险。
Event types：
Regulation/Compliance
Odaily reports: CoinShares analysis indicates that the continued weakening of the U.S. housing market has provided room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but inflationary pressure remains a key constraint on monetary policy.On the interest rate front, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its October 28 meeting, but recent hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data leave the risk of further rate hikes in place. Polymarket data shows that as of October 20, the market priced in roughly a 12% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October, while CME market pricing suggested about 17%; the market's expected probability of another rate hike in December is about 83%. Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates in October, it could trigger a larger shock by exceeding market expectations.Bitcoin showed relative resilience this week amid volatility in risk assets, supported by recovering spot demand, improved stock market sentiment, and short covering. However, the subsequent trajectory of the crypto market will still be mainly influenced by interest rate expectations and changes in liquidity, and the policy buffer provided by housing market weakness is not yet sufficient to offset inflation risks.
