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CryptoQuant Analyst: If the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on and impacts inflation, the Fed may have no choice but to raise interest rates

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X, stating that the current U.S. inflation structure has gradually become clearer. Although the March CPI recorded the largest month-on-month increase since 2022, core CPI remained largely unchanged, indicating that inflationary pressures have not yet broadly diffused. This trend warrants continued monitoring in upcoming PCE data and over the coming months. So long as this structure persists, it suggests inflation has not yet become systematically embedded in the U.S. economy—instead remaining a temporary phenomenon, potentially linked to geopolitical conflicts. However, if the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on, inflation could gradually evolve into a systemic risk and begin impacting economic growth, at which point the Federal Reserve may be forced to continue raising interest rates.

Analyst: BTC Breaking Above $76,000 and ETH Breaking Above $2,400 May Signal a Trend Reversal

Visser stated, “If Bitcoin’s trading price breaks above $76,000 and Ethereum breaks above $2,400, I believe that would mark the beginning of a sustainable rally this year, as I don’t think we’ll enter a recession.” At press time, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $71,646—about a 6.1% increase away from $76,000—while Ethereum was trading at approximately $2,215—about an 8% increase away from $2,400.

Two whales have accumulated $5.6 million worth of TRUMP tokens for Trump’s dinner event.

Whale 8DHkza withdrew 850,488 TRUMP tokens (approximately $2.4 million) from Bybit over the past two days; whale 7EtuAt withdrew 105,754 TRUMP tokens (approximately $298,000) from Binance 17 hours ago and currently holds a total of 1.13 million TRUMP tokens (approximately $3.2 million).

Controlled by whales/institutions: 59% of NOM’s circulating supply; the final 278 million NOM tokens held by them have been transferred to Binance.

Thus, the 1.72 billion NOM tokens—59% of the circulating supply—that they withdrew from Binance on April 1 via seven wallets were all transferred back into Binance within the past day and a half.

Whale that bought $4.7 million worth of WBTC this morning has already liquidated the position, incurring a $12,000 loss.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Aunt (@ai_9684xtpa), the bullish whale address 0x0EA…34a54—who earlier today accumulated $4.7 million worth of WBTC at a cost of $72,720.78—exited its entire position four hours ago. This whale sold 64.7 WBTC at $72,536, incurring a loss of $12,000.

US-Iran Conflict: Six Weeks In, Bitcoin Market Shows Divergence—Institutions Keep Buying, While Whales and Miners Accelerate Selling

According to CoinDesk, against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict—now lasting approximately six weeks—the Bitcoin market is clearly bifurcating into two camps: “passive buyers,” represented by Strategy and spot ETFs, continue accumulating BTC, while whales, mining companies, and certain sovereign holders are shifting toward selling. The selling pressure is evident: whale addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to substantial net selling, with their year-to-date holdings changing from roughly +200,000 BTC to –188,000 BTC; publicly listed mining firms, under mounting cost pressures, have also concentrated their selling—offloading over 19,000 BTC in a single week. Additionally, sovereign holders such as Bhutan have sold approximately 70% of their Bitcoin reserves since October 2024. Analysis suggests that although market sentiment briefly plunged into the “extreme fear” zone, Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound between $65,000 and $73,000, indicating that this “floor” is primarily propped up by a narrow base of institutional buying. Currently, the buyer base continues to contract, and the market’s next directional move will hinge on whether institutional inflows can sustain momentum and break through key resistance levels.

A whale withdrew 265,132 LINK from Binance three hours ago, worth approximately $2.38 million.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale withdrew 265,132 LINK tokens from Binance three hours ago, valued at $2.38 million.

TD Cowen analyst lowered MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) price target to $350, maintaining a “Buy” rating.

According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, Lance Vitanza, an analyst at investment bank TD Cowen—which manages $15 billion in assets—has lowered Strategy’s (MSTR) target price from $440 to $350 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

“Whale Holding 59% of NOM’s Circulating Supply” Transfers 1.442 Billion NOM to Binance

According to on-chain analyst Yujin’s monitoring, in the past half hour, a whale/institution controlling 59% of NOM’s circulating supply has transferred another 768 million NOM ($3.73 million) to Binance. Since last night, this whale/institution has deposited a total of 1.442 billion NOM ($7.67 million) into Binance. Meanwhile, the NOM price has dropped 39% over the past 24 hours.

Whale trader “Set 10 Big Goals First” re-enters position with $4.7 million in WBTC after a one-month hiatus

According to on-chain analyst “Aunt Ai,” while the whale behind the “Set 10 Big Goals” campaign placed a heavy $270 million short bet, the address 0x0EA…34a54 has accumulated $4.7 million worth of WBTC since yesterday, with an average entry price of $72,720.78—marking its first accumulation in one month.

“Cumberland-related addresses” increased ETH holdings by 26,500 ETH from CEXs, valued at approximately $59.52 million.

According to lookonchain monitoring, whales/institutions are continuously accumulating ETH. A wallet associated with Cumberland withdrew 26,500 ETH (approximately $59.52 million) from OKX, Binance, Bybit, and Coinbase within the past 12 hours.

An address received 5 million UNI tokens—approximately $15.8 million—from the Uni Timelock contract, three months after the previous transaction.

According to on-chain analyst “Aunt Ai,” an address has received 5 million UNI tokens—worth $15.8 million—from the Uni Timelock contract for the first time in three months. This address has now accumulated a total of 10 million UNI tokens, currently held in a Coinbase custodial account.

A major whale holds a long position of 50,000 ETH, with an unrealized profit exceeding $11.29 million.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, as the market rallies again, a whale’s long position of 50,000 ETH (20x leverage) is now worth $111.9 million, with an unrealized profit exceeding $11.29 million.

FF (Falcon Finance) surged 137% overnight, followed by the transfer of 115 million FF tokens from a custodial wallet.

According to on-chain analyst Yujin’s monitoring, between 2–3 a.m. Beijing Time today, the price of $FF (Falcon Finance) surged 137% in a straight line—from $0.072 to $0.171. Around 3:30 a.m., a BitGo custodial wallet suddenly transferred approximately 115 million $FF (valued at roughly $15.81 million). Of this, 68.51 million $FF (approximately $8.32 million) has already flowed into Binance and Bybit. The $FF price subsequently dropped sharply and is now trading around $0.10.

Bitwise Updates Hyperliquid ETF Application Filing Again; Ticker Symbol Set as BHYP

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitwise has updated its Hyperliquid ETF application filing again; the proposed ticker symbol is BHYP, with an expense ratio of 67 basis points (0.67%). He noted that such updates typically signal an imminent official launch.

The U.S. government transferred 2.44 BTC to Coinbase Prime

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), the U.S. government (funds seized from Glenn Olivio) deposited 2.44 BTC (approximately $177,000) into Coinbase Prime 10 minutes ago.

Circle minted $10.5 billion worth of USDC on Solana in the past month

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), Circle has just minted an additional 250 million USDC. Over the past month, Circle has minted 10.5 billion USDC on the Solana blockchain.

BlackRock Withdraws 2,700 BTC and 30,000 ETH from Coinbase

According to on-chain analyst Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens), BlackRock withdrew 2,700 BTC (worth $196.87 million) and 30,000 ETH (worth $67.42 million) from Coinbase.

Analysis: Bitcoin Breaks Above $73,000 Amid Lower-Than-Expected U.S. CPI Data

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin’s price broke above $73,000 on Friday, driven by U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that came in below market expectations. The data showed that the U.S. energy index rose 10.9% in March, with gasoline prices surging 21.2% month-on-month—the largest monthly increase since 1967—and becoming the primary driver of CPI growth. Despite the sharp rise in energy prices, overall CPI was still 0.1% lower than expected. Traders are focusing on Bitcoin’s near-term resistance levels, particularly the liquidity zone around $74,000. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain low, a view already widely shared by the market.

An address set transferred 674 million NOM tokens to Binance, worth $3.94 million.

According to on-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN), a set of addresses holding at least 59% of NOM (Nomina)’s circulating supply transferred 23% of the token’s circulating supply (674 million NOM, valued at $3.94 million) into Binance over the past hour. NOM’s price dropped 25% today. This address set is likely the same entity that drove NOM’s price up sixfold (from $0.0017 to $0.0126) over the past half-month. On April 1, it withdrew 1.72 billion NOM from Binance across seven wallets—representing 59% of NOM’s total circulating supply (2.9 billion NOM).