News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, a certain address has transferred a cumulative total of 2,300 BTC to Wintermute's deposit address since June 25, with a total value of $142 million and an average deposit price of $61,813. The most recent transfer occurred 6 hours ago, valued at $50.72 million. The funds for this address originated from Paxos, and the ownership of the address has not yet been confirmed.
According to Odaily, despite spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of $211.5 million on Tuesday, the price of Bitcoin remained largely flat, hovering around $64,000. Analysts believe this movement resembles the market being compressed into a low-volatility state, rather than signaling an impending sharp decline.On the same day, spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded net inflows of $53.8 million. In the broader macro market, the S&P 500 index closed at a record high of 7,737 points on August 4, the Nasdaq rose 2.6% driven by AI earnings, and Brent crude oil fell below $80 due to easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere stated that ETF buying entering the market but failing to push Bitcoin's price higher is itself a key signal, indicating that marginal buyers in the spot market are not truly one-sided bulls. He believes that for Bitcoin to sustain its recovery narrative, it needs a clear breakout above $65,000 in the short term.Overall, analysts are interpreting the current Bitcoin price action as a form of "boring bottoming": no obvious panic selling, yet lacking strong upward momentum. ETF inflows provide support, but the price remains suppressed below key resistance, suggesting the market is still waiting for a clearer directional catalyst.
According to the market weekly report released by market maker Wintermute (@wintermute_t), the macro and crypto markets experienced multiple shocks over the past week: On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a 9-3 vote. Officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan rarely voted together to support a 25bp rate hike, marking dissent at the second meeting since Chairman Warsh took office. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.24%, hitting a new high since July 2007, while the 10-year yielded 4.67%. The yield curve bear-steepened, indicating market doubts about the Federal Reserve's inflation credibility. On the stock market level, AI leveraged fund Situational Awareness (under Leopold Aschenbrenner) encountered margin calls due to leverage as high as 400%. Its size plummeted from $45 billion in early July to about $10 billion, forced to sell all public positions to Citadel at a discount. Long positions in AI infrastructure such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply, partially explaining the reason for the continuous decline in chip stocks in July. On the crypto level, BTC fell 2.84% weekly and ETH fell 3.63% weekly, but Wintermute believes major sellers are nearly exhausted, and the painful trade direction has turned upward. ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive months,
According to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation decreased from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in a hold for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US restarted a naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87 per barrel, pressure for energy inflation to rebound is accumulating, casting doubt on the sustainability of this CPI decline. Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released the open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to frontier models from OpenAI and Anthropic, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its worst weekly performance in 15 months, the Nasdaq dropped 4.16%, and Nvidia temporarily ceded the top spot in global market cap to Apple. The crypto market, however, strengthened against the trend, becoming the best-performing risk asset of the week. Within minutes of the CPI data release, BTC surged from around $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed approximately $134 million in short positions were liquidated within the first hour. BTC ETF
Amid geopolitical risks such as US airstrikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin performed steadily overall, holding the key $62,000 level, indicating that market selling pressure has eased. Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recorded a combined net inflow of approximately $282 million, ending eight consecutive weeks of capital outflows. However, institutions believe this is more like a preliminary turning point signal and is not yet sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
according to Arkham monitoring, approximately $30.85 million worth of Bitcoin was transferred about half an hour ago. The funds are linked to addresses associated with Irish drug trafficker Clifton Collins, who had amassed over $400 million in assets through Bitcoin, with some funds later seized by police. Monitoring data shows that his related BTC funds have seen multiple large movements recently:March 24: Approximately $35.44 million worth of BTC was seized by Irish police and transferred to Coinbase Custody;May 19: Approximately $38.19 million worth of BTC was transferred to addresses associated with Wintermute / Binance;July 2: Approximately $30.85 million worth of BTC was transferred to Coinbase Prime Custody.
According to Wintermute’s market weekly report, a significant macroeconomic shift occurred during the week ending June 22: The U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but its statement adopted markedly tighter language—removing all references to accommodative policy. The median dot-plot projection rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, and 17 of the 18 FOMC members assessed inflation risks as skewed upward. The probability of a December rate hike surged from roughly 24% one month earlier to approximately 77%. Meanwhile, the Iran nuclear deal—originally scheduled for signing on June 19—collapsed following Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon, prompting Iran to withdraw from negotiations. Qatar is now attempting to extend talks until the end of June. With U.S. equity markets closed for Juneteenth, they failed to react promptly; crypto markets bore the brunt first—BTC peaked near $67,000 midweek before retreating to around $62,000, posting a weekly decline of 3.8%; ETH once again fell below $2,000, dropping into the mid-$1,700 range, down 1.2% for the week; over the weekend, approximately $600 million in long positions were liquidated, while less than $90 million in short positions were cleared—highlighting persistent leverage imbalance. Wintermute noted that the narrative of forced selling by “Strategy” players has dissipated (net BTC purchases totaled 1,587 BTC between June 8–14), yet marginal demand from both ETFs and Strategy participants has clearly weakened compared to prior periods. Capital inflow channels remain unopened, and the market is stabilizing primarily under light positioning and low leverage.
market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62,000 last week, with a weekly decline of approximately 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, drawing market attention, the scale of this transaction is negligible. The real reason for the market's weakness is the continuous reduction of positions by U.S. institutional investors and the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs.Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. added 172,000 non-farm jobs in May, far exceeding the market expectation of approximately 80,000. Meanwhile, job openings rose to a near two-year high, and the service price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.55%, creating a "good news is bad news" macro environment that pressures risk assets.Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has shown signs of weakening, with the Nasdaq index falling 4.7% for the week and the S&P 500 recording its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the pullback in the AI sector, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO have collectively dampened market risk appetite.In the crypto market, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with total outflows of approximately $2.97 billion. The net outflow in May reached $2.43 billion, marking the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into U.S. stocks, while U.S. institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the selling.However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including long-term capital gradually building positions at current price levels. From a perspective of more than one year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report stated that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important barometer for observing market risk appetite. If the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it could help boost market sentiment; conversely, it may exacerbate the pressure on risk assets.
the OTC whale (0xFB7) has once again purchased 20,000 ETH from FalconX, worth $40.48 million, and sent 50 million USDT to Wintermute, possibly for further purchases. The whale currently holds 143,906 ETH, valued at $317.6 million.
Wintermute stated that, as of May 25, BTC was trading at approximately $76,600 (down 1.5% weekly), while ETH traded at around $2,140 (down 1.7% weekly). Meanwhile, the U.S. equity market’s S&P 500 Index hit a new all-time high during the same period—highlighting a pronounced divergence between crypto and equities. BTC spot ETFs saw outflows of roughly $1.26 billion for the week, bringing cumulative outflows over two weeks to over $2 billion. Institutional buying—previously instrumental in driving BTC from $70,000 to $80,000—has clearly receded. The ETH/BTC ratio hit a fresh 10-month low, down 35% cumulatively from its August peak. On the macro front, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a historic low of 44.8, while the one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.8%. NVIDIA reported Q1 revenue growth of 85% year-on-year and issued a Q2 revenue guidance of $91 billion—but saw virtually no after-hours reaction, suggesting AI-related trades are already fully priced in. Wintermute noted that BTC’s key support currently lies between $75,000 and $76,000; holding this range could enable a retest of $80,000, whereas a break below would rapidly open the $70,000–$72,000 zone. The near-term direction hinges on whether institutional capital returns to the market.
that, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale deposited 17.566 million ENA tokens, worth $1.78 million, into Wintermute. The whale had previously withdrawn these ENA tokens from Wintermute and Binance at a cost of $5.38 million, resulting in a loss of $3.6 million from this transaction.
According to Finance Feeds, Wintermute’s latest report states that the global market narrative has rapidly shifted from “when will rates be cut?” to “will rates need to be raised?”, driven by rising inflationary pressures and hotter-than-expected macroeconomic data—leading to a cooling of momentum in the crypto market. Bitcoin retreated after briefly breaking above $83,000, while major altcoins posted double-digit weekly declines. The report notes that this rally was primarily fueled by short squeezes in the perpetual futures market—not underlying spot buying. Concurrently, Bitcoin derivatives open interest rose by $10 billion over the past month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume fell to a two-year low. Although spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $623 million recently and exchange-held Bitcoin reserves dropped to a seven-year low, these factors remain insufficient to offset near-term macro risks.
Wintermute released its weekly market analysis, covering the week ending May 11. During this period, BTC broke above $80,000 for the first time since January, peaking near $83,000 and decisively crossing its 200-day moving average—a resistance level that had held for seven months. However, Wintermute noted that this rally was primarily leveraged-driven: open interest surged by $10 billion month-on-month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low—classic hallmarks of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Funding rates remain skewed bearish, indicating further short-covering potential in the near term; yet covering shorts does not equate to genuine bullish consensus. Looking at medium- to long-term fundamentals, institutional buying logic remains intact: BTC ETFs posted $623 million in net inflows for the week; Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF attracted $194 million in its first month with zero net outflows on any single day; and BTC reserves held on exchanges remain at a seven-year low. Nevertheless, Wintermute cautioned that the RSI has entered overbought territory, and if spot buying fails to materialize after the squeeze concludes, prices face significant risk of a rapid correction. On the macro front, the Nasdaq rose 4.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the week—both hitting all-time highs. Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations (115,000 vs. forecast 65,000). U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed, with Iran demanding sovereignty recognition and reparations—terms rejected by Trump. Oil prices swung violently between $88 and $113 per barrel during the week, yet equity markets reacted indifferently. Key events to watch this week:
Wintermute’s weekly market report indicates Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and briefly touched around $83,000, while also reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally is clearly more driven by leveraged capital rather than spot buying.The report notes that over the past month, Bitcoin open interest increased by approximately $10 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low, a classic short squeeze scenario. Although ETFs still recorded net inflows of $623 million and BTC reserves on exchanges fell to a seven-year low, the current RSI has entered overbought territory. If spot buying fails to sustain after the short squeeze ends, BTC prices could face a rapid correction risk.Wintermute also stated that the current crypto market rally is more driven by the strength of US equities and the resonance of leverage, rather than an independent bull market narrative. Upcoming US CPI data and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will be key factors in determining whether BTC can stably hold above $80,000.
according to Lookonchain monitoring, wallet 0xb5E4 has received a total of 1.22 million HYPE over the past 3 weeks, valued at approximately $52.28 million. The funds originate from sources including Wintermute, Galaxy Digital, OKX, Bybit, Gate, and Kraken. On-chain data suggests that whales and institutions may be continuously accumulating HYPE.
According to on-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN), after Lido launched its $LDO buyback program, whales/institutions allegedly followed suit by purchasing 4.5 million $LDO (approximately $1.86 million) and 10,000 $AAVE (approximately $1.15 million) via OTC deals; the tokens originated from Wintermute and FalconX.