News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Bloomberg reports, SpaceX stock performed relatively steadily on Thursday following the expiration of the lock-up period (lock-up agreement) restricting insiders from selling shares, involving the unlocking of up to approximately 911.5 million shares valued at about $100 billion based on current valuation. Trading data shows SpaceX stock price fluctuated within a range of less than 3% during early trading, as the market digests the potential selling pressure brought by this large-scale share release. Trading volume in the first 30 minutes after the opening approached 93 million shares, accounting for about 40% of the total volume of the previous trading day. This unlocking occurred shortly after SpaceX announced its first earnings report. Previously, SpaceX stock price once fell about 14% due to investor concerns that the company's investment scale in artificial intelligence business was higher than expected. However, most Wall Street analysts still maintain a long-term optimistic view on the company. Market focus includes SpaceX's future investment plans in AI, satellite internet, and mobile communication businesses. Despite facing capital expenditure pressure in the short term, analysts believe the company's leading position in rocket launches, Starlink satellite network, and commercial space sectors remains an important factor supporting its long-term valuation. This stock unlocking of about $100 billion has also become an important event for the market to test investor confidence after SpaceX's listing. The lack of significant stock price fluctuations indicates that the market had certain expectations regarding the liquidity release from internal shareholders.
According to Jin10 Data, SpaceX will announce its first earnings report since listing after the US stock market close on Tuesday. Since listing on June 12, the company's stock price has fallen nearly 50% from its high, with market capitalization shrinking by over $500 billion. As of Monday's close, it was reported at $114.53, approximately 15% lower than the IPO issuance price. Market focus centers on three key areas: • Starlink: S&P Global expects Q2 revenue to reach $6.9 billion, primarily driven by Starlink, which is currently SpaceX's only profitable business segment; • AI: SpaceX's AI business revenue was $818 million in the first three months of this year. It has reached compute supply cooperation agreements with Google, Anthropic, etc., and acquired coding startup Cursor (approximately $60 billion); • Starship: The 13th test flight was completed, but the booster experienced a hard landing. Analyst firm Bernstein believes Starship is one of the most critical factors supporting the high valuation. Additionally, after the lock-up period ends on Thursday, over 911 million shares (market value approximately $100 billion) will be unlocked for circulation. Coupled with short selling funds' paper profits reaching $8.3 billion, market selling pressure cannot be ignored.
Morgan Stanley analysts stated that if SpaceX's stock price falls to $100 per share, it implies the market's valuation of its AI business has dropped to zero. SpaceX launched an IPO valued at $86 billion in mid-June, and this week it fell to a low of $110.85, down 18% from the offering price. Analysts assigned a target price of $300 per share to the stock, with more than half derived from the AI business valuation. Previously, SpaceX entered the AI infrastructure sector leveraging its Starlink satellite network, providing low-latency data transmission services for large model training.
According to the Financial Times, investors are increasingly betting on a decline in SpaceX's stock price, with the stock price falling below the offering price for the first time just weeks after its listing. The report states that SpaceX's initial valuation incorporated high expectations for future growth, such as Starlink satellite internet expansion, commercialization of space business, and AI-related potential. Although previously favored by the market due to its rocket business, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence positioning, attracting significant capital attention during the early listing period, the retreat in stock price has led some traders to begin betting on further declines through short selling or other bearish strategies. Currently, SpaceX has not yet responded to this market trading situation.
as the 25-day quiet period following SpaceX's (SPCX) June IPO comes to an end, Wall Street analysts have begun releasing formal research reports. Multiple major brokerages have issued favorable ratings, indicating institutional investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential.As IPO underwriters, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have assigned buy-equivalent ratings to SpaceX. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target of $300. Additionally, institutions such as Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and UBS have also initiated coverage with buy or equivalent ratings. Among them, Raymond James Financial provided the most optimistic forecast; analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage of SpaceX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target as high as $800, believing SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."Analysis suggests that market optimism towards SpaceX is primarily based on its布局 (layout/foundation) in areas such as rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and government contracts. At the same time, the company's communications business can provide a sustainable source of revenue and support future expansion of launch scale.As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX holds 18,712 Bitcoins. Wall Street believes that the concentrated coverage following the end of the IPO quiet period provides a window for institutional investors to conduct their first systematic assessment of SpaceX's valuation. The fact that nearly all major institutions simultaneously issued positive ratings is relatively rare for large-scale IPOs. (CoinDesk)
According to Red Star News, an investigation report leaked from Myanmar fraud parks shows that global telecom fraud is accelerating towards an "AI industrialization + cross-border encrypted payment" system. Fraud networks complete fund flows through cryptocurrencies and use large model-based automated tools for multi-language script generation, identity disguise, and emotional manipulation. According to investigation analysis, these systems extensively utilize OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini at the functional level to support "scaled social fraud," while on the funding end, rapid laundering and transfer are achieved through on-chain payments and cross-border channels, forming a dual-layer structure of "AI customer acquisition + encrypted settlement," enabling the fraud industry to possess high automation and cross-national diffusion capabilities. Additionally, Musk's Starlink has become the top network service provider for Myanmar fraud parks, with US ISP service providers carrying nearly one-fifth of the park's traffic. Regarding the relevant allegations, OpenAI responded that fraudsters' use of ChatGPT is highly similar to that of ordinary users, making identification difficult, but approximately 100,000 suspicious accounts are banned monthly through behavior pattern recognition and risk control systems. Google stated its AI models have established safety guardrails and emphasized commitment to "responsible AI development" to limit tools from being used for illegal purposes such as fraud.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.