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Odaily News, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is currently trading between a median realized price of approximately $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,700. Spot trading volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since 2019, with the market in an extremely quiet state of compression. Core inflation fell to 2.5% in July and stock markets hit new highs, yet Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction or has even weakened, indicating a clear absence of demand. Selling pressure is subsiding, with profitable supply approaching levels seen at previous bear market bottoms. The seller exhaustion indicator has hit cycle lows, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.Meanwhile, buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, with negligible net inflows into ETFs and Bitcoin still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives leverage has already been heavily skewed toward longs ahead of time, open interest remains relatively high compared to trading volume, and order book bid depth is thinning. Glassnode identifies key levels to watch at approximately $68,700 to the upside and $58,500 to the downside. Only a decisive break above the former, accompanied by a recovery in trading volumes and ETF inflows, would confirm market improvement. If the latter is lost, an accelerated decline is likely given thin buying support and crowded long positioning. Glassnode states that Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage bear market compression phase, and no genuine demand signal has yet emerged.
"1011 Insider Whale" representative Garrett Jin released a weekly analysis stating that while he previously suggested gradually positioning in memory chips and buying on dips, the market did not experience the expected pullback. He has sold half of his previous rebound positions during the surge, not because the investment logic has changed, but due to concerns regarding the capital structure driving the rise, stating, "This looks more like a short squeeze than a final confirmation of fundamentals by the market." Rapid capital covering short positions can create short-term gains for memory chip stocks like SK Hynix, but cannot sustain the trend alone. Risks associated with Korean leveraged ETFs have not been fully released, but the decline in asset size is mainly due to NAV shrinkage rather than investor exit. Currently, cumulative net subscriptions for related financial products remain at historic highs and have not turned negative. Garrett Jin emphasized that the decline in Korean leveraged ETF size does not indicate market bearishness on memory demand. SK Hynix's 2026 capacity is already sold out, and Micron's orders are covered until 2028, with demand remaining strong through the second half of 2027. However, the memory industry is essentially still cyclical. Stock prices have already surged by hundreds of percentage points in advance, and cyclical stocks are typically difficult to sustain long-term growth driven solely by valuation expansion. The current market is entering a new phase of the AI capital expenditure cycle, shifting from "rewarding investment" to "evaluating investment returns." Regarding Bitcoin, Garrett Jin stated it continues to meet the bottoming conditions established since the July lows, and he currently maintains the position view established near $60,000.
CryptoQuant stated that as crypto asset prices remain under pressure, large holders are increasing their positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, indicating they may be preparing for the next market cycle.The firm believes this behavior suggests the current bear market may have entered its final phase. However, CryptoQuant also emphasized that the market has not yet confirmed a bottom, and prices could still decline further.CryptoQuant Research Head Julio Moreno stated that the largest holder groups of BTC, ETH, and XRP are increasing their supply holdings as prices approach or fall below their realized prices. This shift in positioning helps reduce downward pressure and aligns with characteristics typical of the late stage of a cyclical downturn.Data shows that, excluding exchanges and mining pools, Bitcoin whale balances have rebounded from a low of approximately 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to roughly 3.06 million BTC. This data also excludes holdings by ETFs or digital asset treasury companies.CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin whale holdings have maintained a positive 30-day growth for most of 2026, and accumulation intensified when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in June. However, current whale balances remain below the 2025 bull market peak of approximately 3.23 million BTC, suggesting there is still room for continued accumulation.