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Bitcoin continues to face pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional wait-and-see sentiment, hovering around $64,500, down approximately 2% on the day. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Fed FOMC meeting, which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range.Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current US inflation is believed to remain near three-year highs, with energy prices and geopolitical developments keeping the market cautious about the future policy direction.Pressure is also emerging simultaneously on the chain and institutional levels. Structural concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to escalate, with its preferred stock STRC falling to $91.79 on June 16, over 8% below its $100 par value, seen as a sign of weakening corporate Bitcoin buying power.Although spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the majority, the capital scale remains significantly lower than in previous periods, indicating limited buying momentum.Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP note that the recent Bitcoin rebound appears more like a "technical recovery driven by exhausted selling pressure" rather than being fueled by new demand. In the derivatives market, rising implied volatility in options and a skew towards put protection suggest traders are pricing in tail risks.In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is considered to be oscillating in the short term within the $60,000 to $68,000 range. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, a pullback to the $62,000–$63,000 range is possible.Overall, the current market presents a combination of "macro wait-and-see, marginal institutional weakening, and heightened derivatives defense." The short-term direction still depends on FOMC policy signals and the potential return of ETF and corporate capital flows. (The Block)
Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of any rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while approximately $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts suggest that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still struggle to firmly hold above $80,000 in the short term.The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. The ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of withdrawals. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidation volume reached approximately $657 million this Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long squeeze event since early February. The current Bitcoin open interest has fallen about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's previous rebound to $82,000 briefly reclaimed the key level of $78,300, the "realized market average," but has since fallen back below it. Historical cycles suggest that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this range for weeks to months to confirm a structural shift between bull and bear markets.Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysis indicates that U.S. investors have been consistently distributing their holdings since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.The options market is also signaling caution. The BTC short-term 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in market demand for downside protection. A large gamma short position of approximately $2.5 billion is concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. Should BTC fall back to this area, hedging by market makers could further amplify volatility.In the altcoin market, the sector is largely following BTC, with Bitcoin's dominance remaining around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)
according to data monitoring from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the 9th consecutive trading day on April 24, with a single-day inflow of $14.45 million. The total cumulative inflows during this continuous period amounted to approximately $2.1 billion, marking the longest net inflow streak since September 2025. Last week, ETFs saw total inflows of $823.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT recording weekly inflows of $983 million, hitting a new high in nearly six months.CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin market is driven by futures, with open interest continuing to rise. However, aside from ETF inflows and MicroStrategy purchases, on-chain apparent demand remains negative. The chief analyst at CEX.IO pointed out that the recent price increase has been notably driven by short squeezes. Since April 13, the total amount of short liquidations has reached approximately $2.8 billion, far exceeding the $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Part of the ETF demand may stem from basis trading strategies, specifically buying IBIT while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. This strategy is market-neutral and not purely bullish. Currently, the options market's 25-delta skew is in negative territory, indicating that investors are paying a premium to seek downside protection.
QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.