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Analysis: Bitcoin Releases Late-Bear Market Signals, Liquidity Return May Trigger Next Round of Volatility

Odaily News Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating within a narrow range recently, with volatility, trading activity, and market liquidity all compressed to levels similar to those seen at the end of a bear market.Currently, Bitcoin's price remains above the "Median Realised Price" of around $63,200, while the key level for short-term holders (STH) to achieve overall profitability stands at $67,176. Meanwhile, market demand is weakening: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $385 million last week, corporate Bitcoin reserve-related activity has turned negative, spot trading volume has fallen to multi-year lows, and Bitcoin transfer speed has dropped to its lowest level in seven years.Bitfinex stated that in the current extremely thin liquidity environment, even slight changes in capital flows could trigger significant Bitcoin price fluctuations. At the same time, weak retail activity, declining real income, and deteriorating consumer confidence indicate that U.S. household demand is under pressure. Bitfinex noted that the current market shows a clear divergence: accommodative financial conditions are driving traditional risk assets higher, but the crypto market has not yet received corresponding capital inflows.Bitfinex believes that the core market question has shifted from "whether monetary policy will improve" to "whether improved liquidity can translate into capital inflows for crypto assets." If Bitcoin spot ETFs resume sustained net inflows in the future, coupled with stablecoin supply expansion, this would signal a restart of the crypto market's liquidity transmission mechanism and could become a key catalyst for BTC breaking out of its prolonged low-volatility state.Before capital returns, although the macro environment is gradually improving, the crypto market's upside still lacks capital support. However, given that market participation has dropped to extremely low levels and BTC continues to hold key realized price support levels, once liquidity re-enters the market, it could trigger violent fluctuations. The current structure leans toward an upward breakout once demand recovers.

"1011 Insider Whale" Representative: SK Hynix Rebound May Be Short Covering, AI Storage Cycle Enters Return Verification Stage

"1011 Insider Whale" representative Garrett Jin released a weekly analysis stating that while he previously suggested gradually positioning in memory chips and buying on dips, the market did not experience the expected pullback. He has sold half of his previous rebound positions during the surge, not because the investment logic has changed, but due to concerns regarding the capital structure driving the rise, stating, "This looks more like a short squeeze than a final confirmation of fundamentals by the market." Rapid capital covering short positions can create short-term gains for memory chip stocks like SK Hynix, but cannot sustain the trend alone. Risks associated with Korean leveraged ETFs have not been fully released, but the decline in asset size is mainly due to NAV shrinkage rather than investor exit. Currently, cumulative net subscriptions for related financial products remain at historic highs and have not turned negative. Garrett Jin emphasized that the decline in Korean leveraged ETF size does not indicate market bearishness on memory demand. SK Hynix's 2026 capacity is already sold out, and Micron's orders are covered until 2028, with demand remaining strong through the second half of 2027. However, the memory industry is essentially still cyclical. Stock prices have already surged by hundreds of percentage points in advance, and cyclical stocks are typically difficult to sustain long-term growth driven solely by valuation expansion. The current market is entering a new phase of the AI capital expenditure cycle, shifting from "rewarding investment" to "evaluating investment returns." Regarding Bitcoin, Garrett Jin stated it continues to meet the bottoming conditions established since the July lows, and he currently maintains the position view established near $60,000.

Citrini Comments on "AI Stock God Seeking New Funding Support": The Fund's Founding LPs Still Have a 130% Return Rate, Will Likely Buy the Dip, the Fund Will Secure Sufficient Capital and Unwind Hedges to Avoid Liquidation

: In response to recent reports that "AI stock god Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Fund is seeking new capital support," well-known investment research firm Citrini officially commented on X platform: "If you are an LP of Situational Awareness, you invested in the fund based on information from its offering memo, such as 'AI is the only thing that matters, and if you recognize this and wish to invest in a vehicle that expresses this view by going all-in long on the most leveraged expression of our most optimistic AI thesis in the stock market, then you invest.' Not just because you're bullish on AI, but because you believe Leopold is one of the few 'hundreds' / knows these 'hundreds' who will bring about the machine god by 2030. And then, over the next two years, this fund did exactly what it promised. And it went up. Probably over 20x, if I recall correctly.Again, in this scenario, you are the person who read 'Situational Awareness' (that paper) and said: 'Yes, I agree AI is more powerful than nuclear bombs and will turn the world upside down before the end of this decade. And I want to put my investment into the hedge fund version of that thesis.' Now those stocks have fallen, so the fund's assets have also fallen.Let me ask you—do these LPs look like the type of people who would turn bearish on AI just because SK Hynix dropped 50% in six weeks? The kind who likely view the level of tech optimism akin to 'I'm going long TQQQ' as normal people treat municipal bond fund investments?Yeah... I wouldn't expect many of them to be calling Mr. Ash Burner to complain right now. Some people don't realize how insane a 2200% gain since inception (2024) really is. To put it in perspective, if you invested $100 million when SALP launched and lost ninety percent (of those gains) in July, your investment would still be worth $230 million today.I think LPs are very likely to buy the dip. Situational Awareness will get the money they're asking for. And once the capital is in, they will unwind their (likely short-term) hedges because they won't face the risk of being liquidated by their prime broker. This means the market makers who sold them those hedges will have to delta-hedge their unwind on what could be a fairly significant notional exposure. At the same time, they will deploy these funds into what they see as 'the best buying opportunity since April 2025.' I don't think Leopold is in trouble; rather, it's more likely he can raise the capital he needs, meaning it's more probable Leopold triggers a market bottom than drives AI stocks lower.If there's something I'm missing that would cause this group of AI super-believers—who are likely still significantly profitable on their SALP investment—to decide they'd rather not buy the dip, then yeah, any stock that even smells of AI might head straight to hell. But... (that's not the reality).”

Morgan Stanley: AI Infrastructure ROIC Can Reach Up to 46%, Maintains Overweight Rating on Hyperscalers

According to TechFlow Research, Morgan Stanley released a research report on July 27, quantifying for the first time the Incremental Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of Generative AI investments. The report constructed three estimation frameworks: the ROIC for hyperscale cloud service providers' GPU leasing business is approximately 31%, the ROIC for proprietary infrastructure model API business is approximately 46%, and the ROIC for third-party compute API business is approximately 25%. Under base case assumptions, a single 1 gigawatt (GW) data center is configured with approximately 410,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs, with a utilization rate of 75% and an hourly leasing price of $8.5. The combined capital expenditure of the three major cloud giants is expected to exceed $1.4 trillion. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. The report points out that as AI moves from the training phase to the inference phase, demand for GPU compute power will continue to grow. Providers with self-built compute infrastructure will achieve considerable profits by leveraging their pricing power in an ecosystem where compute is scarce. If Morgan Stanley's calculations hold true, the hundreds of billions of dollars in AI capital expenditure will shift from being perceived as "costs" to "growth assets".

Strategy Bitcoin Strategy Manager: STRC Short-Term Dislocation Fixed, Targeting Long-Term Return to $99–100 Range

Chaitanya Jain, Bitcoin Strategy Manager at Strategy, stated on X that STRC has begun to recover after a brief price dislocation. The company's goal is to drive its long-term gradual return and stabilization in the $99–100 range.He noted that Strategy will achieve this goal through multiple tools, including: a floating dividend rate mechanism, a continuously growing USD reserve, the gradual unwinding of convertible bond structures, share buybacks, and ongoing product feature enhancements.

Loopring DEX Announces Immediate Shutdown and Will Directly Return Users’ Assets

According to Loopring’s official announcement, Loopring DEX—the first zkRollup protocol on Ethereum—has announced the immediate cessation of all trading services, and its relayer has been taken offline simultaneously. The team cited several reasons for the shutdown: (1) its early architecture lacked virtual machine support, constraining ecosystem growth; (2) insufficient commercial operational capabilities within the team; (3) external pressure—including the delisting of LRC from multiple major exchanges in 2026; and (4) the fact that modern zkEVM solutions have comprehensively surpassed Loopring’s original technical architecture. Regarding user asset distribution, Loopring will adopt a centralized approach to directly batch-send assets to users’ Layer-1 wallet addresses. Users need not perform any on-chain actions or pay gas fees—all transaction costs will be borne by the team. The specific process is as follows: publish the final balance list → upgrade the smart contract → a two-week public review and audit period → batch distribution.

WEEX Joker Card Season 3 Upgraded Return: Lucky Buff Enhanced, Rewards Amplified Again

WEEX Exchange has officially launched the third edition of its interactive trading card game, “Joker Cards.” Users can earn playing cards by completing tasks such as registering for the event, depositing funds, trading, or inviting friends. Playing cards earns points, and users share a USDT prize pool daily based on their point share. Compared to the first two editions, the third edition features enhanced Lucky Buffs and larger overall rewards. Drawing the “Lucky Card of the Day” unlocks additional rewards, including token airdrops, position airdrops, contract trial funds, and trading fee credits. Event period: June 1, 12:00 – June 10, 23:59:59 (UTC+8).

Forbes: BTC Expectations for Return to $80,000 Rise as SEC Chair's Comments at Bitcoin 2026 Conference Draw Attention

: US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins recently reiterated the push for "Project Crypto" and announced plans to jointly develop a digital asset classification framework with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This framework will clarify when a token is deemed a security, while also introducing an "innovation exemption" to support the on-chain trading of tokenized securities.The market believes that the series of initiatives pushed by Paul Atkins represent one of the most aggressive shifts in crypto regulation in SEC history, marking a formal abandonment of the old “regulation by enforcement” model in favor of clear rule-making. This move could release a stronger entry signal for institutional capital that has been on the sidelines, potentially driving Bitcoin's price back above $80,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $77,586. The market is now focused on Atkins's further statements at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in late April. (Forbes)

Binance Launches Alpha Page, Displaying Alpha Points and Historical Return Data

Odaily News Binance announced the launch of an Alpha page, designed to showcase the Alpha points mechanism, historical Alpha event return performance, and relevant data on the subsequent listing progress of related tokens on Binance.This page will serve as a centralized portal for Alpha-related information, allowing users to view historical performance and participation details.