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According to Odaily, Bitcoin recently broke through a key price level, sparking discussions about whether a new bull market has begun. Some analysts believe that rapid gains, concentrated short covering, and technical breakouts are typical signals of a market bottom reversal, but others warn that the macroeconomic environment and capital inflows remain key factors in determining the sustainability of the trend.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that Bitcoin's recent rally is very similar to historical bottoming phases, which are typically accompanied by short squeezes, sharp single-day gains, and breakouts above key technical resistance levels, followed by investors who missed the move re-entering the market. He believes that the probability of a significant Bitcoin pullback is currently decreasing, and market FOMO sentiment may further intensify.However, Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, remains cautious. He noted that without sustained spot ETF inflows and clear signals of interest rate cuts, it is still too early to confirm the bear market is over, and Bitcoin may lose upward momentum near resistance levels.Analysts point out that the current rally is driven by multiple factors, including the U.S. Treasury's expansion of its bond buyback program, declining long-term yields, and improved sentiment toward risk assets. Previously, Bitcoin had been consolidating in the $64,000 to $66,000 range, accumulating significant short positions in the market. The breakout triggered cascading liquidations in the derivatives market, accelerating the price surge.Tobias Bauer, co-founder of TBV, noted that Bitcoin futures trading volume on Binance reached $1.26 billion within a minute—361 times the normal level—while funding rates rose to exchange limits, indicating crowded leveraged longs in the market and rising costs for chasing the rally. (CoinDesk)
According to BIT analysts, the major IPO wave continues. Anthropic is currently expected to go public in late September or early October 2026. The trading price of its private secondary market shares has risen to $598, a significant increase from $59 in July 2025 and $162 in August 2025.
Odaily News Trader Ansem (@blknoiz06) stated in a post on platform X that billions of dollars in stablecoins are currently sitting on-chain, waiting to re-enter risk asset markets.Ansem believes that in the coming weeks, market participants will gradually realize that major crypto assets (Majors) do not necessarily need to hit new all-time highs, and capital rotation may occur sooner than expected.He noted that as stablecoin funds flow back into risk assets, the market could see a stronger upward rally.
Odaily News Crypto analyst Killa posted on X, stating that as BTC enters a new monthly cycle, a relatively clear bearish narrative has formed in the market. Therefore, the likelihood of an upward reaction at the start of the month is relatively high. The analyst noted that BTC is currently still in a consolidation range and is near the bear market low. Two possible scenarios may follow: first, a further decline breaking below $57,000 to complete the final pullback; second, an upward breakout starting this month, continuing the range-bound trend. Personally, the analyst leans toward BTC seeing an upward reaction of about 2%–4% at the start of the month, but does not rule out the possibility of continued downside afterward.
on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that top traders on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid are heavily long on Bitcoin, with their sustained long position reaching the highest level since the platform's records began, surpassing the level seen during Bitcoin's previous rally to approximately $83,000. Glassnode noted that this position indicates strong speculative demand at the current price level. Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange where traders can trade leveraged perpetual contracts with no expiry date on-chain. A Bitcoin whale on Hyperliquid has recently pushed net long positions to a year-to-date high. Glassnode's weekly report shows that despite Bitcoin's price decline in June, accumulation has continued; Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $65,000 level.
trader Ansem posted on X platform, stating that JTO and HYPE are the strongest performing assets in today's market, clearly leading the rest of the tokens.Ansem also noted that WLD's performance slightly trails JTO and HYPE, but benefits from the narrative tied to OpenAI, maintaining a relatively strong upward trend overall.
Crypto analyst Ali posted on X, stating that Coinbase will face a critical technical test next week. If it holds above $141, it could trigger a rebound and potentially rally toward $185; however, if it breaks below this key support level, further downside risk looms, with a potential target near $74. Meanwhile, analyst Hussein Kashmar noted that the weekly support level at $145 is also highly significant—this zone has historically attracted strong buying interest. Market participants are now watching closely to see whether bulls can successfully defend this current support area. Should buying pressure fail to materialize effectively, Coinbase may retreat further into the prior breakout range of $100–$115.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated Bitcoin has recently attempted to breach the $82,000 level three times, but each time it has faced a pullback. During each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1.0 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are taking advantage of the uptrend to continuously exit with profits, rather than continuing to hold positions. Currently, $82,000 is not only a key technical resistance level but also an important selling pressure zone from a market behavior perspective, having formed a strong supply zone.
Odaily Odaily News: Analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted on X platform, stating that Bitcoin has been rejected at $82,000 again, marking the third failure at this level. The short-term holder SOPR indicator has still failed to stay above 1.0, indicating that short-term holders continue to sell during each rally. Currently, crude oil is near $106, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 537 points, and interest rates face the risk of remaining elevated for a prolonged period.
Wintermute released its weekly market analysis, covering the week ending May 11. During this period, BTC broke above $80,000 for the first time since January, peaking near $83,000 and decisively crossing its 200-day moving average—a resistance level that had held for seven months. However, Wintermute noted that this rally was primarily leveraged-driven: open interest surged by $10 billion month-on-month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume hit a two-year low—classic hallmarks of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout. Funding rates remain skewed bearish, indicating further short-covering potential in the near term; yet covering shorts does not equate to genuine bullish consensus. Looking at medium- to long-term fundamentals, institutional buying logic remains intact: BTC ETFs posted $623 million in net inflows for the week; Morgan Stanley’s BTC ETF attracted $194 million in its first month with zero net outflows on any single day; and BTC reserves held on exchanges remain at a seven-year low. Nevertheless, Wintermute cautioned that the RSI has entered overbought territory, and if spot buying fails to materialize after the squeeze concludes, prices face significant risk of a rapid correction. On the macro front, the Nasdaq rose 4.5% and the S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the week—both hitting all-time highs. Nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations (115,000 vs. forecast 65,000). U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed, with Iran demanding sovereignty recognition and reparations—terms rejected by Trump. Oil prices swung violently between $88 and $113 per barrel during the week, yet equity markets reacted indifferently. Key events to watch this week:
Wintermute’s weekly market report indicates Bitcoin recently broke through $80,000 and briefly touched around $83,000, while also reclaiming the 200-day moving average for the first time in seven months. However, this rally is clearly more driven by leveraged capital rather than spot buying.The report notes that over the past month, Bitcoin open interest increased by approximately $10 billion, while spot trading volume dropped to a two-year low, a classic short squeeze scenario. Although ETFs still recorded net inflows of $623 million and BTC reserves on exchanges fell to a seven-year low, the current RSI has entered overbought territory. If spot buying fails to sustain after the short squeeze ends, BTC prices could face a rapid correction risk.Wintermute also stated that the current crypto market rally is more driven by the strength of US equities and the resonance of leverage, rather than an independent bull market narrative. Upcoming US CPI data and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations will be key factors in determining whether BTC can stably hold above $80,000.
on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking activity in the Bitcoin market could increase further.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since the beginning of April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." Currently, the short-term holder profitability indicator has remained above 1, suggesting that the market has been in a phase of continuous profit-taking since mid-April.The analysis suggests that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to materialize.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.
Odaily Bernstein stated in a research report that the cryptocurrency market is currently showing signs of fundamental strengthening. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin has formed a bottom near $60,000 and is now advancing toward the $80,000 mark. Institutional capital inflows, MicroStrategy's continued accumulation of Bitcoin through STRC products, and the deep integration of blockchain with financial infrastructure collectively create an asymmetric upside potential.Bernstein emphasized that new distribution channels from Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab's spot trading platform have broadened participation. Currently, approximately 60% of Bitcoin's supply has not moved in over a year, with institutional demand reinforcing its holding base. Additionally, stablecoin supply has reached a record high of $300 billion, with its payment and settlement demand decoupling from market sentiment. The tokenized real-world asset sector has grown 110% year-over-year to $345 billion. Although quantum computing poses a long-term risk, analysts believe the industry has ample time to undergo a secure transition.
Odaily News Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC today that retail investors will become the primary fuel for the next wave of stock market gains. He believes that many retail investors missed the rebound during the previous war-related sell-off. Now, as panic subsides, they will re-enter the market, providing significant buying power and driving the stock market higher. Therefore, with the trend of retail capital flowing back and sustained corporate earnings growth, investors may experience "one of the best periods of their lives" in the next 18-24 months.
Odaily News CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin's recent rally is facing increasing risks of selling pressure, with on-chain data showing a significant rise in funds flowing into exchanges.Bitcoin previously broke through $76,000 but faced downward pressure and retreated when approaching the key resistance zone around $76,800. This level corresponds to the "on-chain realized price" range, which has historically often acted as a top for rallies, as many investors whose holdings are nearing breakeven tend to sell.Data shows that the hourly inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has risen to approximately 11,000 BTC, the highest level since late 2025, which is typically viewed as a potential signal of selling pressure. Simultaneously, the scale of transfers into exchanges by large holders (whales) is also expanding.Analysis suggests that if this resistance level remains effective, Bitcoin may face short-term correction pressure, with a key support level around $67,600.
According to QCP Group analysis, BTC rebounded overnight alongside risk assets, rising back into the mid-$74,000 range, triggered by news of an initial U.S.-Iran framework agreement. However, long-end yields barely moved, gold held near highs, and bond markets failed to follow—indicating this rally reflects headline-driven risk alleviation rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution. The core dispute centers on uranium enrichment: Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60%, while the U.S. demands a reduction to below 20%. To date, Iran has issued no signals of compromise—a standoff unresolved since 2015. From a crypto market-structure perspective, BTC spot prices rose gradually amid negative funding rates and low open interest, suggesting short sellers remain resistant and are fueling a short squeeze. Yet options markets have not confirmed the breakout: short-term at-the-money (ATM) volatility remains near 40, and one-month implied volatility still sits below three-month volatility—highlighting stronger demand for downside protection than for upside momentum chasing. On the macro front, the Fed’s net rate-cutting room for this year has nearly vanished, and liquidity conditions remain relatively tight. QCP views this rally as fundamentally a geopolitically driven relief bounce—not a structural shift in the macro landscape—and warns markets to remain vigilant against pullback risks following the rebound.