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UBS: S&P 500 P/E Ratio Down 17%, Fed's Path Determines Future Market Outlook

According to Chaoxiang Research, in a research report dated September 28, 2026, UBS noted that the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has declined 17% from its November high last year, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has increased by approximately 100 basis points year-to-date to 5.2%, placing it roughly 80 basis points above its one-year moving average. Over the past four decades, the 10-year US Treasury yield has exceeded 1.5 standard deviations only seven times. Current market pricing implies that the Federal Reserve will implement rate hikes totaling approximately 88 basis points over the next year, falling just short of the 100-basis-point threshold. UBS maintains that the Fed's path of rate hikes will determine the direction of equity markets. Historical precedent indicates that when rate hikes surpass 100 basis points within a year, the S&P 500 yields negative returns after twelve months; conversely, following moderate rate hikes, the index averages a 17.7% gain over the same period. Current pricing more closely mirrors a moderate tightening scenario. The valuation model suggests an implied upside potential of roughly 21% for the S&P 500. In terms of asset allocation, investors are advised to focus on high-growth, low-valuation sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, refining, and diversified banks.

Bitwise CEO: Inflation-Reduction Proposals Reflect Despair and Helplessness; the Right Path Is Growing Demand

Odaily News, Bitwise CEO posted on X platform, stating that these proposals to reduce inflation reflect, in his view, despair and helplessness. People want to see their asset valuations rise but do not know what else they can do to achieve this. He believes that rather than turning toward creating value, capturing value, and driving demand—things that are harder but where real growth lies—people are instead turning to austerity, reducing the economic benefits for ecosystem participants and holders. The right path is harder, but also simple: grow demand.

Analysis: SpaceX IPO Valuation Staggering, Yet Future Business Path Remains Unclear and Profitability Unproven

SpaceX is progressing with its IPO and seeking a valuation of approximately $1.78 trillion. If realized, it would become the world's seventh-largest company by market cap. However, the mid-to-long-term business path justifying this valuation remains unclear.Furthermore, SpaceX's core narrative is shifting. In February of this year, Musk integrated SpaceX with xAI, making artificial intelligence a key component of the company's strategy. Compared to the original core vision of "making humanity a multi-planetary species," AI now occupies a more prominent position in the company's narrative. In the first quarter, xAI-related business reportedly accounted for over three-quarters of capital expenditures, while approximately 93% of the total addressable market mentioned in the IPO filing is also related to AI.Musk has long been adept at restructuring business narratives to align with market preferences, as seen in previous cases like integrating SolarCity into Tesla and merging Twitter with the xAI ecosystem. SpaceX's new narrative combines rocket launches with AI, envisioning the deployment of AI data centers in orbit to build future computing infrastructure. However, SpaceX launched approximately 2,200 tons of payload into orbit last year, while Musk has suggested that realizing the orbital data center vision would require an annual launch capacity of about 1 million tons. Although Starlink and the rocket business already hold industry-leading positions, genuine cash flow will ultimately be needed to validate this massive valuation hypothesis. (Financial Times)